Prediction Thread!

ok, I'll play (4.00 / 2)

keep in mind that I am more invested in NJ5, so I am biased....

Pres:  56%/40%
Sen: 61%/39%
NJ3: Adler 50%/48%
NJ5: Shulman 51%/49%
NJ7: Stender 51%/47%

don't know enough about NJ4 to make a prediction other than it is the lone victory for the bad guys....

Scott Garrett - on the wrong side of, well, everything.

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by: Adam L @ Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 02:44:02 AM UTC

Pulling the lever as well (4.00 / 1)

Pres: 55%/42%
Sen: 58%/39%
NJ3: 51%/48%
NJ5: 50.5%/49.5% (yes, it will be that close, maybe closer)
NJ7: 51%/48%

Also, don't know much about NJ4, but I hope Zeitz can win it!

"Give me a lever long enough... and I shall move the world." - Archimedes

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by: mconvente @ Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 02:59:13 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I was told by a Shulman field op they are up in their poll (4.00 / 2)

I think 47% is too low for Shulman, the worst he does is 48.5%.

Zeitz isn't even on the radar. Carol Gay got 33%, I think the same for 2004. While other districts have trended up for dems for 4-6 yrs.


Check out my 3 paragraph primer on Polywell Fusion.

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by: FogerRox @ Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 03:16:50 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I've been wondering what's been up in NJ-05 (0.00 / 0)

since that R2K poll that showed him down 7 with Garrett at 47%, under that crucial 50% mark.

I guess they are keeping it under wraps so as not to give Garrett voters drive to stay in line at the polls.

Come on Shulman!

"Give me a lever long enough... and I shall move the world." - Archimedes

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by: mconvente @ Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 03:48:44 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

was at the rally last night (4.00 / 1)

and the feeling was that we are close enough to have today's ground game make the difference.

Which is simply amazing. Kudos to Dennis and Jeff Hauser - regardless of what happens today.

Scott Garrett - on the wrong side of, well, everything.

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by: Adam L @ Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 11:14:22 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

here goes (0.00 / 0)

PRESIDENT:
Obama:   58 %
McCain:   41 %

US SENATE:
Lautenberg:  55  %
Zimmer:   42 %

NJ3
Adler: 50 %
Meyers:  49 %

NJ4
Zeitz:   37%
Smith:   60 %

NJ5
Shulman:  48 %
Garrett:  51 %

NJ7
Stender:  48 %
Lance:   49 %

Frank LoBiondo Record and Jon Runyan Watch

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by: Hopeful @ Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 04:11:49 AM UTC

NJ11 (0.00 / 0)

No predictions on NJ11?  I know no one expects Wyka to pull it off,  but I'm gonna say he gets 45%, and Frelinghuysen gets 55%.  At this rate he'll win in 2010!

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by: chairthrower @ Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 04:15:16 AM UTC

See my comment, (0.00 / 0)

I would add Wyka has already hit 45% in early sept.

Check out my 3 paragraph primer on Polywell Fusion.

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by: FogerRox @ Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 17:29:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Im guessing (4.00 / 2)

President: Obama 58%/ McCain 40%
Senate: Lautenberg 61%/ Zimmer 39%
NJ3: Adler 53%/ Meyers 46%
NJ7: Stender 51%/ Lance49%
NJ5: Shulman 51%/ Garrett 49%
NJ11: Wyka 43%/ Frelinghuysen(or however you spell it) 56%
NJ4: Zeitz 42%/ Smith 58%

Adler I think is the biggest lock followed closely by Stender.  Shulman WILL win provided Independents break for Democrats and Democratic turnout is as high as its been for the primaries.  Wyka I don't think has much of a chance UNLESS 65% of Independents vote the straight Democratic line.  I just don't see how Zeitz can pull it in that district.

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by: Erik Preuss @ Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 04:31:42 AM UTC

Trajectories... (4.00 / 1)

President:  Obama 53%   McCain 45%  (and that's cuz they steal votes)

Lautenberg: 57%  Zimmer 43%

Adler 53% Myers 46%

Stender 51% Lance 49%

Shulman 50.07% Garrett....gone (this one won't be settled til Wednesday afternoon ;-)

Wyka wins if Obama breaks 62% in NJ.

Zeitz hits 44% and will be running strong in 2010. (all else being equal)

The Sun will rise at 6:28 AM.....

At the very least I'll get one close to right!    

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by: Nick Lento @ Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 04:52:32 AM UTC

Heading to the polls (0.00 / 0)

Pres: 56%/43%
Sen: 55%/42%
NJ3: Adler 50%/47%
NJ4: Smith 55%/43%
NJ5: Garrett 51%/48%
NJ7: Stender 48%/45%
NJ11: Frelinghuysen 56%/43%

Go team!

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by: Jeff Gardner @ Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 10:53:57 AM UTC

poll (0.00 / 0)

PRESIDENT:
Obama:    56%
McCain:    41%

US SENATE:
Lautenberg:    53%
Zimmer:    44%

NJ3
Adler:   49%
Meyers:   49%

NJ4
Zeitz:   41%
Smith:   59%

NJ5
Shulman:   49%
Garrett:   49%

NJ7
Stender:   48%
Lance:    50%

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by: notquitebluemaybecyan @ Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 21:46:55 PM UTC