Adler holds slight lead in latest Zogby Poll

by: Jason Springer

Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 01:02:53 PM EDT

It appears that one of the nation's highest-profile open congressional races will remain agonizingly close until the end.

Six weeks ago, Republican Myers led Adler by 1.4 percent. Adler has gained slightly and the candidates now are tied, with Adler at 39.7 percent and Myers at 39.4 percent. A large chunk of voters in this traditionally Republican district - 16.5 percent - have still not made up their minds. Among independents, 23 percent are undecided.

Schulman attributed the tightness of the race to the fact that more Democrats are moving into the district, and most voters are unhappy with the direction in which the country is heading.

The gender gap in the 3rd is stark. Men prefer Myers, a military veteran, by a 50- to 30-percent margin. Women prefer Adler 49 percent to 29.4 percent.

Each candidate has demographic pockets of support. Adler leads among independents, 36 percent to 31 percent; young voters, 63 percent to 15 percent; black voters, 74 percent to 26 percent; and among people earning less than $50,000 per year by a 2-to-1 margin. Myers leads among voters ages 30-49, 49 percent to 30 percent; white voters, 41 percent to 36.5 percent; Catholics, 46 percent to 32.5 percent; and among those earning more than $50,000 per year, a lead of six to 10 points depending on the income bracket.

They are essentially tied among senior citizens, 41 to 40 percent for Myers.