| We know very little about what is happening on the ground in our Congressional Races because there are only a few scientific polls of public opinion. The media outlets that deserve praise are Gannett New Jersey, The Press of Atlantic City, and Daily Kos. Not a single local TV station has sponsored a poll in these exciting races, once again demonstrating our sad situation as the unwanted stepchild of New York and Philadelphia. We also have a handful of internal polls from the DCCC and RNCC which should be taken with a grain of salt, because they only release polls that "look good." Also, the polls are typically only 400 likely voters, so the margin of error (MoE) is large.
Incumbent Republican Scott Garrett is below 50%, always a bad sign for someone who should be well known, and challenger Dennis Shulman has gained six points in a month according to today's poll. Can he gain more by election day and pull off the upset? It's definitely possible.
NJ5: Shulman 40 Garrett 47. MoE: 5% Dates: 10/20-10/22 Research 2000 for Daily Kos
NJ5: Shulman 34 Garrett 49. MoE: 5% 9/17-9/18 Research 2000 for Daily Kos
Democrat John Adler has a lead according to the DCCC in the NJ3 open race, but what's striking here is that everyone is way below 50%. The public polls pointed toward Adler being slightly behind, but they're quite old now. Anyone can still win this race.
NJ3: Adler 43 Myers 35 MoE: 5% 10/15-10/16 DCCC
NJ3: Adler 38 Myers 34 MoE 4.9% 10/2-10/3 DCCC
NJ3: Adler 41 Myers 44. MoE: 4.7% 9/30-10/2 Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey
NJ3: Adler 37.1 Myers 38.5 MoE: 5% 9/18-9/20 Zogby for Press of Atlantic City and Stockton College
NJ3: Adler 29 Myers 33 MoE: 5.7% 9/8-9/9 McLaughlin Associates for Myers and RNCC
In the other open seat race, polling shows both Democrat Linda Stender and Republican Leonard Lance way below 50%, so anyone can win. Once again, the Democrats have recent evidence that Stender is ahead, but the older public poll is less encouraging.
NJ7: Stender 40 Lance 31 MoE 4.9% 10/8-10/9 DCCC
NJ7: Stender 39 Lance 43. MoE: 4.8% 9/30-10/2 Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey
Finally, a poll shows that incumbent Republican Frank LoBiondo once again winning big (unless something has happened in the last month.)
NJ2: Kurkowski 26 LoBiondo 62 MoE: 5% 9/18-9/20 Zogby for Press of Atlantic City and Stockton College
My Conclusion: If you have a chance to donate or volunteer for Adler, Shulman, or Stender you can really make a difference. We know that the undecideds will determine the winner of all three races. |
