Peeking behind the Qpac Numbers

by: Thurman Hart

Tue Aug 12, 2008 at 08:46:28 AM EDT

Among registered voters, Lautenberg leads Zimmer by eight - down one point from two months ago.  Lautenberg's support dropped two points - which is far from significant, but interesting only because it is twice the decline in support that Zimmer saw.  Registered voters were most likely to be moving to the "Don't Know" column than anything else.

In the smaller realm of "likely voters", Lautenberg's lead holds at seven points, 48 to 41.  It's purely a numbers game here.  Lautenberg has support of 78 percent of Democrats and Zimmer has support of 80 percent of Republicans.  Zimmer even leads among Indies - 44 to 42.  But builk numbers lean towards the Dems, so FRL picks up a return to DC.

The really bad news for Corzine is the demographic that costs him the election - Democrats.  Comparing Christie and Zimmer, we can see that Christie actually has a bit less support among Republicans (80 to 76) and Indies (44-42).  But where only 12% of Democrats plan to vote for Zimmer, that number rises to 17% when the choice is Corzine or Christie.  

It's also important to see where Corzine loses the election.  Lautenberg's slight lead in the Shore districts (44-43) turns to a twenty point lead for Christie (31-51).  Lautenberg's five point lead in "Phillyland" (48-43) is turned into a twelve point deficit for Corzine (34-46).

It isn't hard to see why Corzine is in trouble.  Among Democrats, his favorable/unfavorable numbers are only 55/29.  Democrats have a registration advantage - and have excellent get-out-the-vote operations - but when that slender of a margin of partisans supports the incumbent, things are going to get expensive.

But Jerseyans are just in a bad mood.  59% of us disapprove of the state legislature.  Corzine's favorability numbers are a net six points negative (42/48).  Bob Menendez' favorability numbers are neutral (33/-34).  Only Frank Lautenberg has net positive numbers - a +8 (46/38) - and those are nothing to write home about.  When asked how they thought things were going in New Jersey, only 32% had a positive response, and the breakdown is 30% "somewhat" and 2% "very".  67% had a negative response, 35% "somewhat" and 32% "very".  Only 9% believe that things have gotten better under Jon Corzine, while 39% think they have gotten worse.  Those kinds of numbers favor the minority party - but only if they can convince voters they have something different to offer.

But here's where I tell you that polling is just a scam, though.  Fully ten percent of those polled didn't know enough to have an opinion about Jon Corzine.  Nineteen percent hadn't heard enough about Frank Lautenberg to have an opinion.  Jon Corzine has been governor for almost three years and Frank Lautenberg has been Senator since 1982, except from 2000 to 2002, when he "retired" and was replaced by - Jon Corzine.  If you don't know enough about these two men to have an opinion, then you just haven't been paying attention.

If Jon Corzine gets behind Barack Obama, he can still land a plum job back in DC - and it certainly looks like he should put some serious thought into that strategy.  If Corzine isn't the candidate for Governor next year, who do you think should be?