| We have one hundred days for the Presidential election, so it's worth considering how the campaign has shaped up here in New Jersey. Monmouth (48-34),Strategic Vision (47-38), Rasmussen (47-44), Farleigh Dickinson (49-33), and Quinnipiac (46-39) all have found Obama leading since the end of the primary process. The average of the these five polls gives Obama 47.4 tp McCain 37.6, a comfortable and solid lead. The local Super-Tuesday battle, the April Pennsylvania primary, and the coverage of the long national primary mean that Barack Obama is familiar, well-known figure, so these numbers are not likely to change easily.
As in recent Presidential elections, our neighbors New York and Delaware are not competitive, but recent polls show a significant Obama (+8.3) lead in Pennsylvania. If the Pennsylvania results hold up, the nearest battleground states for New Jerseyans willing to travel will be Virginia and Ohio.
Over at FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver is simulating the November election. Taking into account the New Jersey polls, the nationa polls, and demographic models, New Jersey has a 91% chance of voting for Obama in November. (This is a recent improvement after staying in 80s for most of the summer.) The simulation also says we are not worth investing in, and have virtually no chance of being the key 270th electoral vote for either candidate.
Overall, despite New Jersey voters' preference for Hillary Clinton and John McCain in the primaries, our state seems to have become even more solidly "blue" for Barack Obama. I wonder if we will even see the usual scare when polls seem offer a brief hope for the Republican. |
