| Probably the best students of psychology are professional salesmen. If there's a way to influence people to do something, salesmen will find it. A common trick is to ask easy and pleasant questions early and hold off on hard questions until later in the discussion. This is why salesmen (at least good ones) lead off with "Nice weather, right?" instead of "How much money do you have to put down?"
The Strategic Vision poll cited by jmelli is a good example. Republicans know that George Bush is not popular in NJ. If you get people shaking their heads early, you are more likely to get net negative results on everything else you ask. So, what do they do? They hold off on that news. Instead, they ask about Jr. chasing down Pope Bobbie M.
1. If the election for United States Senator was held today, whom would you support Robert Mendenez, the Democrat or Tom Kean, Jr., the Republican?
Tom Kean Jr. 33%
Robert Menendez 28%
Undecided 39%
This is also my example of useless polling info. I have an unofficial "33-for-me" theory about elections - based on the historical returns for President where no candidate endorsed by one of the two dominant parties has ever received less than 33% of the popular vote. The theory is this, "If a retarded monkey on crack gets a major party endorsement, 33% of people will still vote for it."
Not to say that Jr. is either retarded, a monkey, or on crack, but he gets exactly 33% of the polling votes. Pope Bobbie gets 28% (so maybe he should hire a monkey) - but that is due to his unpopularity with Democrats in some areas. That's still bad news for the Senator, since it means he starts with a diminished base of support. However, Jr. doesn't pick up that support. They run to the "undecided" camp - which means they are as likely to stay home, vote for Menendez, or vote for Jr. (Just to be clear, this split is just among the 5% of core Dems that apparently have pulled their support for Menendez - not the third who are truly undecided.)
Those undecideds definitely are leaning Democrat. How can I say that? Well, when was the last time a Republican won a state-wide race in NJ? Yeah, it was Whitman, in 1997. You can blame it on a string of bad candidates (Dems do it nationally), but the record stands. No Republican has won a Senate seat in NJ since 1972.
Looking at the rest of the poll with a retarded, crack-addicted monkey wearing glasses, we find that 37% disapprove of Pres. Bush's performance, 34% approve of his handling of the economy, and only 30% want to see Roe overturned. That means that Jr. isn't going to get much traction by tying himself to President Bush (ask Doug Forrester for confirmation of that).
There is some indication that Jr. might do better in running against Trenton - only 28% think Jersey is going the right way (so we might prefer a retarded, crack-addicted monkey). But, that same percentage doesn't like Governor Corzine and only a slightly larger percentage (30%) doesn't approve of Senator Lautenberg. The numbers are so similar, it's not out of the question to imagine they represent the same slender margin of people.
The problem for Jr. is that he is unlikely to get to Washington by running against Trenton. If he argues against corrruption and favoritism in Trenton, he is arguing that he should stay where he is. If he takes those arguments against Washington, then he pits himself against his own party. On top of that, he doesn't get much traction for his opponent or from either of the other two major Democratic figures in the state.
This is not to say that Senator Bobbie will have it easy - he won't. The race is his to lose - but Al Gore proved that Democrats in that position are perfectly capable of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. However, I don't look for Menendez to follow the Gore-Kerry model of dodging wild jabs and falling back. Menendez likes to campaign like a stereotypical Latino boxer - he wades in and shakes off the head shots while landing devastating body blows against his opponents. He isn't afraid of getting bloody (in fact, he seems to relish it) because he knows he will give twice as good as he gets.
If you like ugly politics, get some popcorn. If you think this is a "gentleman's game" - then you don't know Jersey politics. |
