A Little More on NJ1 and the Andrews

You are incredibly smart (0.00 / 0)

and (probably) good looking too.  This is because I agree with you:

Regardless of his real aim, Andrews is going to have to run hard to make any impression at all. If he wins against Lautenberg, then he wins big. If he loses, but makes it close, he can still win by being the front-runner for next year's gubernatorial contest or for the eventual replacement of one of our two Senators. The only way he really loses is if he loses big - fifteen or twenty points or more. There's enough frustration in South Jersey to keep that from happening.

Would Andrews be crazy enough to lose a primary to Lautenberg then challenge Corzine? Why not? As I noted on Tuesday Corzine is actually a better target than Lautenberg. The only thing that is scarey about Corzine at this part is that beard and his bazillions of dollars. But I don't think money is going to buy his way out of the hard feelings over municipal aid cuts, school funding cuts, and proposed toll-road hikes. A Republican might have a difficult time beating Corzine, but a fellow Democrat might be able to pull it off (and, let's get real, if things continue for the Bearded One as they are going now, even Republicans might be looking hopeful next summer).

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by: Thurman Hart @ Thu May 29, 2008 at 21:37:31 PM UTC

why does this preclude a return to the House? (0.00 / 0)

Andrews undoubtedly wants to be a Senator or a Governor more than a Congressman, but there is no reason why he couldn't choose to run for re-election to the House if he loses to Lautenberg and then announce a challenge to Corzine in December or January or even April as he did this year.

If anything, returning to the House helps Andrews against Corzine, because he will be able to raise more money as a Congressman with the ability to sell earmarks and votes to anyone willing to contribute the maximum than as an unemployed former Congressman with no influence or power whatsoever.

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by: Bertin Lefkovic @ Thu May 29, 2008 at 22:25:16 PM UTC

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your logic is sound, but I still disagree (0.00 / 0)

As ambitious as the individual members of the Norcross machine are, they are still a machine, and one of the most, if not the most, cohesive machines in the state.

Intra-machine civil wars like what we have seen in Bergen, Essex, and Hudson counties are almost unheard of in Camden County.  This internal cohesiveness has enabled George Norcross to spread his influence throughout South Jersey and even make inroads into parts of Central and North Jersey as well.

While there are plenty of ambitious politicians in CD1 who would love to escape the monotony of local machine politics for the glamour and glitz of DC, they are more than well compensated for their loyalty and patience.

If Rob Andrews primary challenge to Frank Lautenberg fails and he chooses to run for re-election to his Congressional seat, it will come as a surprise to none of the would-be contenders, all of whom have most likely been briefed on the range of contingencies that follow this power play and are prepared to accept the consequences of their loyalty and patience.

Why are these otherwise ambitious and loyal pols so loyal and patient?  Because it has served them quite well until now and it will continue to serve them well going forward.

And even more important than that, they have no choice, but to be loyal and patient.  Because there is no history of successful insurgencies against the Norcross machine, everybody who is a part of the machine knows that their only option is to play their role and wait their turn.

And why would Norcross enable Andrews to play this game?  First and formost, because it gives him an opportunity to expand his sphere of influence and flex his political muscles, especially if the Andrews-Lautenberg primary is truly a first step towards an Andrews-Corzine primary in 2009.

Second, the seniority that Andrews will retain if he goes back to the House for another term will yield more dollars for the district than any freshman Congressman will be able to provide, and as we all know, more dollars equals more patronage and power for Norcross.

In my opinion, from a good government perspective, once you have a placeholder candidate like Camille Andrews, who will step aside and let George Norcross pick her replacement as the Democratic nominee and presumptive Congressperson from CD1, it doesn't really matter whether Norcross picks Andrews or one of his other lackeys to replace her.

The fact of the matter is that the democratic process will have been compromised.  The question of on whose behalf will it be compromised is a distinction without a difference.

I also don't believe that such a manuever will have any impact whatsoever on Andrews' ability to pursue statewide office in 2009 or at any other time in the future.

The voters don't pay attention to inside baseball issues like these and the other electeds and party leaders throughout the state will doff their respective caps in Andrews' direction for setting a precedent that will undoubtedly be repeated in the future, possibly as soon as next year, but if not, by 2013 at the very latest.

In 2013, whether Jon Corzine will be finishing up his second term as Governor and preparing to run for President in 2016 or a Democrat or a Republican Governor are preparing to run for re-election, there will be numerous State Senators and State Assemblypersons who will no longer have to concern themselves about the consequences of a run for higher office, because the party bosses will have learned from Andrews' example and prepared their own contingency plans that will enable their own favorite sons and daughters to pursue their statewide ambitions without having to worry about giving up their incumbent office if they lose.

Whether other party bosses will be able to command the same degree of loyalty and patience from their minions that Norcross enjoys remains to be seen, but there is no reason to believe that we have seen the end of placeholder candidacies.  If anything, it is only the beginning.

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by: Bertin Lefkovic @ Thu May 29, 2008 at 22:12:36 PM UTC

I agree with your conclusion, but not your reasons. (0.00 / 0)

A big primary for the House seat would increase turnout in the 1st. And I'm pretty sure, regardless of who the hopefuls ran with, a majority of those extra voters would vote for the senatorial candidate with th dominant local presence, Andrews.

Nor do I think voters outside the 1st would be especially concerned that there was a primary election in another part of the state.

So why have Camille on the ballot? Money. And another reason: money.

First, House candidates would be hitting the same South Jersey donor base that Andrews needs to support his Senate run. Second, that same donor base needs to be concerned about the possibility that Rob will retain the House seat and that they'll therefore need to keep dealing with him, even if he loses to Lautenberg. So they have incentive to support his Senate run, even if they realize he will lose.

There's also the logistical issue that a privately circulated petition for Camille may have let Rob keep his intentions secret for longer than otherwise possible without double-crossing Norcross by letting ibn-Zayid back into the nomination.

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by: Dvd Avins @ Thu May 29, 2008 at 23:01:32 PM UTC

Interesting (0.00 / 0)

I hope Andrews isn't too old by the time the right statewide opportunity comes along.

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by: Steve M @ Thu May 29, 2008 at 23:38:36 PM UTC

I think he would have ... (0.00 / 0)

had one in five or six years.

Governor in five, Senate in six.

But he would have had to primary non-incumbents for them.

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by: huntsu @ Fri May 30, 2008 at 00:17:39 AM UTC

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Well (0.00 / 0)

I was mostly just making a funny. :)

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by: Steve M @ Fri May 30, 2008 at 02:34:23 AM UTC

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