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Lautenberg Right on Refineries....

by: Nick Lento

Tue May 27, 2008 at 07:15:49 PM EDT



There was a question on the subject of expanding our oil refinery capacity at this morning's Primary debate.

As I recall, Lautenberg said something like it might be a good idea and it needed to be studied. He said a bit more that I'll mention below.

Andrews was straight out for it and Cresitello was ready to build one "today" by implementing a crash program of sorts.

If all you knew was what the questioner asked and what the three responses were, you might have thought that Lautenberg's answer was weak, or less "active".

Well, check this recent NYT story out....  

Nick Lento :: Lautenberg Right on Refineries....
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05...

After last year's stellar profits, American refiners are going through a traumatic period. In a time of record gasoline prices, some of them actually lost money in the first quarter, and for virtually all refiners, profits are down sharply.

Experts say the refiners are caught in a double bind. The price of their raw material, oil, is rising because of strong global demand. At the same time, consumption of gasoline in the United States is falling as a result of slower economic growth and consumer efforts to conserve.

However much the companies would like to raise gasoline prices enough to pass along the full increases in oil, analysts say they have been unable to do it. Oil prices doubled in the past year, while wholesale gasoline prices rose a mere 39 percent.

"Refiners are having a terrible time," said Lawrence J. Goldstein, an economist at the Energy Policy Research Foundation.

Here's more...

In response to falling gasoline demand and rising costs, refiners have cut their production rates. Refining utilization rates, for example, slumped to a low of 81.4 percent in the second week of April, compared with 90.4 percent at the same time last year. Earlier this month, refineries were running at 85 percent of their capacity.

So, as it turns out, the response that Frank Lautenberg gave was actually the most sensible of the three.    He also said that building additional refineries would do nothing for the crisis we are suffering today....the implication being that his two opponents were milking the issue to appeal/pander to the distress/disgust/anger that many of us feel whenever we top off our tanks.

I dare say, anyone running for this level of office should have known the status of our refineries in at least as much detail as is contained in the recent NYT article.  

In any event, chalk one up for Lautenberg's instinctive good judgment and common sense.

PS

We need to get back to Jimmy Carter's take on the issue of energy....he used the phrase "the moral equivalent of war".   He was all for truly major changes in the way we "produce" and consume energy.  If we had stuck to his energy policies we would be living in a different world today.

Carter caught hell for giving the following speech....but, it's clear now that he was right....and that the nation blundered badly when it put Reagan in office.   Carter wasn't the loser; we were.

http://www.americanrhetoric.co...

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I would like ... (0.00 / 0)
I would like to see the money it would cost to build and operate a refinery put into renewables and MPG improvements.

If we used less, we wouldn't need to make more.


very interesting (0.00 / 0)
Thanks for posting this.  It's very worthwhile to follow up on the candidate's statements.

Frank LoBiondo Record and Jon Runyan Watch

Good post... (4.00 / 3)
But I don't think you can bestow an 'enlightened' position on refineries to Lautenberg because he admitted he didn't know whether is was a good idea or not. Although it does appear he was more honest in admitting his ignorance than the other two who appear to be taking an educated guess.
And please keep in mind that gasoline is only one component of the equation. Production of organic chemicals takes up the same refining capacity as gasoline. When chemicals such as benzene are scaled back to make gasoline because high margins/demand, the price of benzene increases. This effects all of us to because benzene and other organic chemicals are principal ingredients in plastics, building materials, asplalt.... etc...
Gasoline is only one part of the equation.

"Where ever you go, there you are." - Buckaroo Bonzai

"I don't know" (0.00 / 0)
it's an honest answer, and one I appreciate.  As I've said previously, though, not all gasoline is the same and neither are refineries.

We also have to beware of poor use of statistics.  Take a look at historical utilization rates for the second week of April:
2008 - 81.4
2007 - 90.4
2006 - 86.2
2005 - 91.0
2004 - 88.0
2003 - 93.2

It's lower this year than in other years, but it isn't such a stark difference as the Times makes it out to be.  A lot goes into determining utilization, as well.  Beyond that, refinery expansion is actually happening right now - in Laurel, Montana, in Mississippi, South Dakota (possibly), and Texas.

So...looks like it's kind of a stupid question to me. (Note that the last one is a refinery for biodiesel.)


Every single refinery in existance today (0.00 / 0)
was expanded to increase its capacity over 25 yrs.

Seems like a lot of people have no clue.

Check out my 3 paragraph primer on Polywell Fusion.


[ Parent ]
That refinery capacity means next to zero. (0.00 / 0)
 As les light sweet crude is available more lower grades of crude are refined, catalytic crackers have to built, this doubles the size of the refinery.

This means down time for the refinery. These capacity numbers must be viewed in that regard otherwise they mean next to nothing.

Every single refinery in the US has been rebuilt and expanded over 25 yrs. Dont forget we havent built a new refinery in this country in 25 years. We just expanded their capacity.

Its really a shame the candidates didn't have a clue.

Check out my 3 paragraph primer on Polywell Fusion.


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