Shulman Snubs Media

by: jonas

Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:09:23 PM EDT

Refusal to communicate with members of the media will leave the Shulman campaign without precious relationships with the very media outlets covering the race through November.  If reporters seeking to cover the race fail to receive the courtesy of a reply, interest will fade and future coverage will not materialize in a general election competition.

Abate, who immediately accepted the request to appear on the program, is now better positioned to argue that Scott Garrett should participate in general election debate.  In refusing televised primary debate Shulman has lost the ability to argue for debate in a general election contest.

Any path to victory against incumbent Republican Scott Garret must include the ability to call him out on his extreme voting record.  As we have seen in past cycles, the opportunity to expose Scott Garret's radical policy positions is greatly diminished without debate.

Since Scott Garrett will refuse debate, as he has in past elections, it is essential that the Democratic nominee have the ability to argue for debate in the mass media.  In refusing the opportunity to appear in televised debate during the primary, Shulman has weakened his ability to make a principled argument for debate in a general election contest.

Further indication of vulnerability in a general election matchup against Scott Garrett can be found in Shulman's refusal to release head-to-head polling numbers.  This move is a stark contrast to Abate, who provided polling data indicating a potential victory over both Shulman and Garrett (Abate Polling Memo Attached).

Voters are fed up with Scott Garrett and will take viability seriously on June 3rd.  Democrats' thirsty for real change will vote Abate because only she has the courage to stand up to Bush style Republican Scott Garrett.  Abate has never backed down from a challenge and when Scott Garrett tries to avoid debate, Camille Abate won't take no for an answer.

Scott Garrett is exceptionally vulnerable with his re-elect standing at a dismal 29 percent. Garrett, a conservative in a district that previously was represented by prochoice moderate Marge Roukema, is currently exhibiting some of the classic signs of a vulnerable incumbent: his job approval rating is below 50 percent (45 percent approve).

Given Garrett's poor performance numbers and the unpopularity of President Bush in the district, along with voters' extreme dissatisfaction with the way things are going both in the country (79 percent dissatisfied), and in this district of New Jersey (60 percent dissatisfied), and you have an electorate that is understandably looking for a change.  Indeed, the environment in this district of New Jersey is ripe for a well-organized Democratic challenger who can reflect the values of, and give authentic voice to, the middle class voters' angst over being squeezed.

While the two chief Democratic challengers start the race without strong bases of support, Camille Abate exhibits greater upside potential, as her profile resonates more strongly with primary voters, and a majority of general election voters move toward supporting her once they are informed of her biography. After hearing basic bio profiles of both Abate and her primary challenger, Abate moves into a strong lead: 39 percent to 27 percent. She has much stronger support among women voters, who make up close to 60 percent of the primary electorate, and has a significant lead among men.  

Abate's history and basic message of being a common sense fighter for the middle class resonates strongly in this district's primary and general election races.  After respondents hear Abate positives, she moves into an outstanding 15 point lead over incumbent Garrett: 47 percent to 32 percent. Abate's resume resonates especially strongly with Independents, 30 percent of whom shift support to her, including 33 percent of women Independents - showing significant weakness for Garrett.  

Abate's potential to strongly move the district's Independents, while appealing to the large number of women voters, gives Democrats an excellent opportunity to break the Republican hold on this seat in 2008. Abate is the Democratic candidate who can most authentically represent the ideals of the district's anxious middle class, but they just don't know it yet. However, with the proper resources and organization built around her, they will.

i Telephone interviews conducted March 24-27, 2008, with 400 randomly-selected likely Democratic primary voters, and 300 randomly-selected likely general election voters. Margin of error for primary election sample (400) is +/- 4.88 percent. Margin of error for general election sample (300) is +/- 5.65 percent.