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A first in NJ-3: D's outnumber R's

by: Juan Melli

Fri May 02, 2008 at 04:23:53 PM EDT



According to the John Adler congressional campaign, registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans in the 3rd Congressional district for the first time in history. The shift was due mainly to unaffiliated voters registering as Democrats.

Although the number of total voters since late 2007 grew by about 4,000 (less than 1%), the shift in partisan registration was huge. Registered Democrats were only 18.8% of voters in 2007, but surged to 29.1% by 2008. Republicans saw more modest gains from 22.8% to 26.3%. By almost a 3-1 margin, previously unaffiliated voters who declared a partisan affiliation chose to register as Democrats over Republicans.

NJ-3 partisan affiliation as of Apr '08. (Sept '07)

Democrat:     29.1% (18.8%)
Republican:   26.3% (22.8%)
Unaffiliated: 44.7% (59.2%)

More detailed party affiliation stats below.

Juan Melli :: A first in NJ-3: D's outnumber R's
April, 2008 NJ-3 registration (Total: 383,115)
Democrats: 29.1% (111,299)
Republicans: 26.3% (100,640)
Unaffiliated: 44.7% (171,176)

September, 2007 NJ-3 registration (Total: 379,158)
Democrats: 18.8% (71,189)
Republicans: 22.8% (86,633)
Unaffiliated: 59.2% (224,336)

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I notice this matches the Cook index that it is a D+3 district.   This goes along with the theory that party affiliation statistics were misleading because a bunch of unaffiliated thought of themselves as Democratic.



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