3 users logged on

Tips: BlueJerseyDotCom (AIM) |

Unofficial New Jersey Results

by: Hopeful

Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 03:05:00 AM EST

Using the Unofficial New Jersey results and my understanding of the 20 district elections, I have computed the delegate break-downs. I get an eleven delegate advantage for Clinton amongst the 107 delegates decided by the election. Clinton took one of the even districts 3-1 and the rest were split equally. Obama managed to take three of the ten odd districts. Specifically:

Dist Tot. Del. Clinton Votes Obama Votes Clinton Share Clinton Delegates Obama Delegates
1 3 25246 19784 0.5606 2 1
2 4 36601 23830 0.6057 2 2
3 4 41218 30589 0.5740 2 2
4 4 34120 32230 0.5142 2 2
5 3 29323 15672 0.6517 2 1
6 4 23183 18994 0.5497 2 2
7 4 30819 21474 0.5894 2 2
8 4 32013 34324 0.4826 2 2
9 3 21908 20067 0.5219 2 1
10 3 30805 28345 0.5208 2 1
11 3 30814 21040 0.5942 2 1
12 3 27838 30416 0.4779 1 2
13 3 20435 18225 0.5286 2 1
14 4 28045 28777 0.4936 2 2
15 3 25964 32843 0.4415 1 2
16 3 36826 25854 0.5875 2 1
17 4 35924 13467 0.7273 3 1
18 3 27647 31030 0.4712 1 2
19 4 36218 23919 0.6023 2 2
20 4 25946 19329 0.5731 2 2
PLEO 14 597329 487046 0.5509 8 6
At-Large 23 597329 487046 0.5509 13 10
59 48

Warnings: I spotted two errors in the Unofficial results PDF: They would not affect this calculation, but there might be other errors. I may have transcribed the numbers wrong. CNN.com has higher vote totals than the state does, by a few thousand votes. I may not understand the rules properly. That said, I think this is basically right.

Oddly enough, you would get 59 delegates for Clinton if you just split the entire slate proportionally. So it turns out ignorance is bliss, or at least just as good. [Update: Some explanation below the fold.]

Hopeful :: Unofficial New Jersey Results

Jay pointed out that I should explain these numbers. Remember that this election was held to select Delegates to the Democratic National Convention. Delegates are actual people who pledge to vote for Clinton or Obama, and since there are no partial people, there are no partial delegates.

Based on the total statewide vote, 23 "At-Large" Delegates are selected. I calculate that Clinton should get 13 of them. Also based on the same statewide vote, 14 politicians (PLEOs) are selected to be delegates. I calculate that Clinton should get 8 of them.

There were also twenty delegate districts, which are each two legislative districts stuck together. The ones that have lots of Democrats get 4 delegates to divide up based on their local vote. The ones with lots of Republicans only get 3 delegates. In total, this adds up to 70 district delegates, which I calculate goes 38 to Clinton.

All of these 107 (23+14+70) delegates are exactly the same at the convention: They get one vote there, and they promise to faithfully vote for their candidate for President.

Tags: Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, 2008 Presidential Primary Results, (All Tags)

Print Friendly View

Send As Email

Unofficial New Jersey Results | 15 comments

my district (#2) (0.00 / 0)

Looks like we just squeezed in the second Obama delegate, which I think means my hardworking Salem County leader, Dr. Hurley, will get to go to the convention. I sure hope I've done this right.

Frank LoBiondo Record and Jon Runyan Watch

by: Hopeful @ Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 08:07:40 AM UTC

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Yep. (0.00 / 0)

62.5% is the threshold for the 3rd delegate.

by: Scott Weingart @ Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 12:50:57 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Amazing turnout (0.00 / 0)

115% in Sussex County and 118% in Morris! Compared to 60% for Republicans. Wow!

Details here...

http://www.njherald.com/348620...

http://www.morriselectionresul...

by: cynicalgirl @ Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 12:49:50 PM UTC

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

can we get a tutotial? (0.00 / 0)

because these figures look a little intimidating.

activist for hire.

by: Jay Lassiter @ Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 13:02:39 PM UTC

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Table problem (0.00 / 0)

Under votes, seeing just a giant mass of digits.

Please adjust your table's parameters so the Clinton and Obama votes are separated by a couple of spaces in Mozilla etc browsers; that or reduce the font size.

It does show right (just) in IF. I can't test for Safari or Opera but in my experience they are usually the picky-picky browsers.

Great work guys. Invaluable.

by: Fast Pete @ Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 13:34:27 PM UTC

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

thanks (0.00 / 0)

It looked fine in mine, forgot that there could be problems.

Frank LoBiondo Record and Jon Runyan Watch

by: Hopeful @ Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 16:29:28 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Error In Voter Registration Database???? Has Anyone else heard about ths? (0.00 / 0)

My ears perked up this morning when I da report on WNYC radio that there was some kind of database "error" in the NJ Registered Voter lists that showed Democrats being listed as Republicans, therefor disallowing them the right to vote in the Democratic primary.

I checked the web and didn't find any specific confirmation of this. (I've also tried contacting WNYC but couldn't get passed the screens that protect their newsroom from listener questions.....did leave a voicemail......and this is a non commercial station lol)

Does anyone out there have any confirmation/information that this was more than just a flubbed/ambiguous news report?

by: Nick Lento @ Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 15:39:49 PM UTC

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

......when "I heard a report..." is the corrected version (apologies for the typo ;-) n/t (0.00 / 0)

by: Nick Lento @ Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 15:44:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

"Errors" or Just Forgotten In The Mists (0.00 / 0)

When someone votes in a primary for the first time, they become a member of that party FOREVER or at least until they either change affiliation or maybe when they move out of that county.

So, if someone voted in the Republican primary in 1980 and has finally seen the light but never changed their affiliation they weren't able to vote on Tuesday. They were supposed to be allowed to vote by provisional ballot.

It is not part of some conspiracy. It is an argument for continuing to make improvements in our databases for voter registration to make sure that inadvertent errors don't create a problem.

by: Creed Pogue @ Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 15:46:57 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Even If They Were Given Provisional Ballots... (0.00 / 0)

.....and had "voted"; the votes would likely have been disallowed unless there was some way to actually prove that the record (as recorded in "the book" at the polls) was wrong.

I wonder if the original documents that determine party affiliation are actually stored as hard copies or as images?

Or are those documents discarded after a clerk has entered the "data"?

My question is not what the law is re who can vote in a primary, which I believe you clearly and correctly stated; but whether there was some kind of specific database "error" which was changing "Dem" to "Rep" on the Voter Registration List?

by: Nick Lento @ Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 16:22:22 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Voting Problems (4.00 / 1)

There is an article in today's New Jersey Herald about the problem, and it gives at least one example in detail of what happened to a Democrat in Sussex County who was told she was registered as a Republican when she definitely was not. So, yes, it's confirmed. Here's the link: http://www.njherald.com/290932...

Toni Zimmer

by: tonizimmer @ Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 16:23:48 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

goldberry had a problem too (0.00 / 0)

though hers was D to unaffiliated.

Frank LoBiondo Record and Jon Runyan Watch

by: Hopeful @ Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 16:27:24 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Thanks For The Confirmation.... (0.00 / 0)

It's likely that this is all due to a combination of clerical errors/incompetence and an extremely large turnout from folks that normally don't vote in primaries.

On the other hand, someone should be checking out these reports in detail just to make sure that no significant "patterns" emerge.

Ideally the state AG should investigate and issue a report. Any hint at all that the integrity of our voting system may possibly have been breached is worthy of strenuous investigation.

If the AG's office doesn't do it; let's hope there are still some investigative journalists left in NJ.

Even the fire department investigates "false alarms", eh? Better to be safe than sorry; I hope someone can get to the bottom of this one.

by: Nick Lento @ Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 16:38:40 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

But, "false alarms" take time and energy away from real emergencies. (0.00 / 0)

The sign-in books should still be at the Superintendent's office. Of course, if the district board worker put the wrong party on the voter record, there isn't much that can be done about that now.

by: Creed Pogue @ Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 17:01:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]