Primary Predictions!

by: Jeff Gardner

Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 02:38:45 PM EST

1. I predict that if Barack Obama is our nominee, that Chairman Joe Cryan will become a tireless advocate for Obama in New Jersey.

2. I predict that if Hillary Clinton is our nominee, that Loretta Weinberg will become a tireless advocate for Clinton in New Jersey.

3. I predict record turnout for a democratic primary in NJ.

I can make the first two predictions with confidence because I know that good people can strenuously disagree about their choice of who should be our party's nominee, while remaining steadfast in their commitment to winning the Whitehouse.

I can make the third prediction because I know that open primaries are a vital part of democracy, and do more to strengthen a party by engaging its members to chart the party's direction, than anything primary naysayers can throw up as reasons not to welcome them.

Note the term "open" primaries. That's not what we are accustomed to here. Our system in New Jersey has long discouraged candidates from "challenging" the establishment choice (often, the choice solely of the County Chair or unelected "Executive Committee"), or stacked the odds so prohibitively in favor of that establishment choice as to make such a challenge a fool's errand.

I hope it's not lost in the takeaway from tomorrow's primary how incredible the power of a contested primary can be to get people energized, engaged, and involved. All it takes is (1) a political culture that accepts primaries; (2) a ballot that is not rigged in favor of one candidate over others; and (3) democrats who stand together behind the nominee that emerges.

I've thought this for a long time, but this year's presidential primary is proving the point. I predict if we insist on these 3 simple steps, we will end up with a government more accountable to the electorate, more leaders beholden to voters rather than special interests, and an inspired, unbeatable democratic party.

Jeff Gardner :: Primary Predictions!

Tags: primaries, Joe Cryan, Loretta Weinberg, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, (All Tags)

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Primary Predictions! | 4 comments

Mmmmmm. Is that sugar? (4.00 / 8)

Because I love sugar.

by: Jeff Gardner @ Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 19:40:18 PM UTC

what he said (4.00 / 2)

sometimes it's hard to leave a comment on something so perfectly stated. esp that business about the County chairs.

activist for hire.

by: Jay Lassiter @ Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 20:11:28 PM UTC

polls & undeclareds? (0.00 / 0)

Does anyone know if poll methodology counts registered partisans only or also polls independents/undeclareds? How about former primary voters vs. registered voters? I'd imagine there are quite a few toeing the party line among the likely primary voters (that is, those who've shown up in June in the past), which may skew results. Ditto for the potential impact of New Jersey's numerous undeclareds.

by: LLiibbyy @ Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 20:22:52 PM UTC

so how do we do it? (0.00 / 0)

From the point of view of the Democratic establishment in NJ, because of our state's pay-to-play political culture, Presidential politics is sport, while municipal, county, state, and (to a much lesser degree) federal politics is business.

Obviously, the NJDSC tried to do their share in the Clintonian anything goes approach to politics by trying to rig the ballots in favor of Hillary.

So many of us were quite proud that the NJDSC quickly backed down when called out, but do we really believe that if we were talking about a June primary and a key municipal, county, or state post hung in the balance that the NJDSC would have been as quick to respond in our favor?

Anybody who answers yes to this question can be the first to buy one of the asset monetization bonds as soon as they are delivered from the printer.

With the exception of red counties like Hunterdon and Somerset and a recently recolored Mercer County, there are virtually no open primaries in this state.

2007 represented the best chance that progressives had to challenge the establishment throughout the state, but with the exception of the Newark districts missed the opportunity completely.

The next similar opportunity will come in 2011. If progressives begin organizing now at the muncipal and county level, we can work together to advocate for legislative and congressional district maps that create 40 and 12-13 competitive districts respectively throughout the state and field progressive candidates for every office.

If we don't do this, it really won't matter if Joe Cryan or Loretta Weinberg support Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton wholeheartedly or not, because whether we win back Washington in 2008 or not, our municipal, county, and state governments are going to still be as much of a mess if not moreso, especially if Hillary wins, because her Presidency will serve to further embolden the Democratic establishment in this state.

by: Bertin Lefkovic @ Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 23:02:44 PM UTC