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Monmouth Univ Poll: Clinton leads by 14%

by: Juan Melli

Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 12:24:48 AM EST



The latest Monmouth University poll has Senator Hillary Clinton leading Barack Obama 50% - 36%. Still, 14% of voters are undecided.

Contrary to other polls, this one shows Clinton widening her lead over Obama compared to the previous Monmouth poll which had Clinton ahead by 12 points on January 13th (42% - 30%).

It may be possible that the earlier Monmouth poll was off, since other polls conducted that same week had Clinton ahead by 18% (Rasmussen, 1/15) and 25% (Research 2000, 1/10).

Juan Melli :: Monmouth Univ Poll: Clinton leads by 14%
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According to that poll, Clinton's lead among white voters is enormous (+33), whereas she is actually losing among Hispanics (-5).  Given that the opposite can be seen in many other states, can that be right?  The largest inaccuracy may be the flawed turnout model employed by the researchers -- the screen for likely voters probably excluded some new voters, who predominantly side with Obama rather than Clinton.

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