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FDU Poll: Clinton Leads Obama ??%-??%

by: Juan Melli

Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 05:54:51 PM EST

Update: I updated the title because this poll doesn't really predict who will win the primaries. Digging down into the numbers, Clinton leads 45%-30% among Democrats, but Obama leads 16%-9% among independents (44% are undecided, 13% for McCain, etc). The poll didn't try to model who would be voting in the Democratic or Republican primary, so if unaffiliated voters turn out in large numbers, who knows what will happen. I think these numbers aren't too meaningful on their own in terms of predicting the outcome, so take them with a grain of salt.

In the latest Fairleigh Dickinson University poll, Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama among likely Democratic primary voters by 45%-30%. That 15 point lead is similar to Clinton's 41%-27% lead in FDU's previous poll (1/22). John Edwards has the support of 6% of voters, a slight drop from 9% in the previous poll.

Fairleigh Dickinson University (1/20-1/27 MoE+/-5%) (1/22 results in parenthesis)
Hillary Clinton 45% (41%) Barack Obama 30% (27%) John Edwards 6% (9%)

John McCain now leads with 29% of the vote from likely Republican voters, while Rudy 9uiliani and Mike Huckabee battle for second place with 20% and 15%, respectively. 9ui11iani is stalling while McCain and Huckabee pick up support.

John McCain 29% (23%) Rudy 9ui11iani 20% (20%) Mike Huckabee 15% (10%)

This latest poll was conducted over a week between January 20-27.

Juan Melli :: FDU Poll: Clinton Leads Obama ??%-??%

Tags: FDU, poll, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, John Edwards, (All Tags)

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FDU Poll: Clinton Leads Obama ??%-??% | 8 comments

How... (4.00 / 1)

can we put any faith into a poll that is conducted over a seven day period? A period which started with a narrow Hillary victory in Nevada and ended with an overwhelming Obama win in South Carolina? We don't know about any trends and it certainly doesn't take SC or the Kennedy endorsements or Bill's filet of sole moments, etc. into account. I guess one can say that Hillary's win in NV didn't affect anything here. :-)

I believe the sampling error for 421 is around 5%. 19% of this sample appears to be undecided. Does that mean they just won't vote or since SC (and all the other events) haven't been factored in, that these are the late deciders? This race is still up for grabs!!!

The Edwards "kingmaker" strategy might also be rather flawed if he continues to lose support.

I wonder what happens on the GOP side if Romney wins Florida? :-)

by: Creed Pogue @ Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 23:27:50 PM UTC

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Don't forget (0.00 / 0)

younger voters have cell phones and the internet generation knows how to avoid poll phonecalls. Most of us have jetisoned our landlines. How was this poll conducted? In person, or by phone?

One Vote. Yours. It really does matter.

by: carolh @ Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 00:08:41 AM UTC

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I believe the results (4.00 / 1)

But I think a lot can happen in a week.

by: Moxie Sebright @ Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 00:15:19 AM UTC

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Sure, with 19% undecided everything is up for grabs. n/t (0.00 / 0)

by: Creed Pogue @ Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 00:39:10 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

This poll is garbage (0.00 / 0)

It doesn't even poll the two party primaries separately. I suggest those who are looking for poll numbers look to the Q-Pac, Rasmussen, and Monmouth University polls before this one.

by: Scott Weingart @ Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 01:23:23 AM UTC

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it seems like (0.00 / 0)

polls have been pretty consistent.

Frank LoBiondo Record and Jon Runyan Watch

by: Hopeful @ Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 01:35:29 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Unaffiliated Voters (4.00 / 1)

My brother is one of those unaffiliated voters who'll be turning out to vote for Obama on February 5th. He's a college student, and this is his first presidential election.

While it's certainly not evidence as scientific as a poll (although a poll sans modeling can hardly be considered to have weighty scientific value), my brother's not alone. There's a huge Obama buzz on campuses across the state.

by: Brian McGinnis @ Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 02:07:03 AM UTC

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The Repugs (0.00 / 0)

endorsed Giuliani like lemmings, rigged a winner-take-all primary for him, & now they're all going over the cliff.

by: Wesleylake @ Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:51:26 AM UTC

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FDU Poll: Clinton Leads Obama ??%-??% | 8 comments