Cillizza Says NJ-3, NJ-7 Among Top 5 Most Likely to Flip

by: Juan Melli

Fri Nov 30, 2007 at 10:58:35 AM EST

5. New Jersey's 7th District (R): Rep. Mike Ferguson's (R) retirement stunned House Republicans who now must defend one of the most expensive Congressional districts in the country (the 7th is entirely within the New York City media market). Adding to the Republican woes is the candidacy of state Assemblywoman Linda Stender (D) who came within 3,000 votes of ousting Ferguson in 2006. Republicans lost their number one recruit when state Sen. Tom Kean Jr. took a pass and now face a likely primary between Kate Whitman, the daughter of former Gov. Christie Todd Whitman (R), and state Sen. Leonard Lance. This district was made more Republican by redistricters in 2001 but given its cost Republicans must nominate a candidate with either a well-known name or deep pockets to compete. (Previous ranking: N/A) [...]

3. New Jersey's 3rd District (R): Rep. Jim Saxton's retirement is a BIG problem for Republicans. Why? First, this south-central Jersey district is marginal territory politically as President Bush won it with just 51 percent in 2004. Second, the district is covered by the incredibly expensive New York City and Philadelphia media markets and is a very tough one in which to communicate. Third, Democrats seem united behind state Sen. John Adler as their candidate, while state Sen. Diane Allen, the preferred Republican candidate, dropped from the race on Thursday, a decision largely credited to her running dispute with the boss of Burlington County. (How can you not love New Jersey politics?) It now looks like Lockheed Martin vice president Christopher Myers will be the Republican pick and will enjoy Saxton's support. (Previous ranking: N/A)