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Get ready to have a GOP Rumble for the 3rd Congressional District Nomination

by: Jason Springer

Sat Nov 10, 2007 at 08:30:51 PM EST



nj03_109.gifThe sudden decision by Congressman Jim Saxton to retire after this term opens the door for an ideological, geographical and egotistical fight within Republican party the likes of which we haven't seen in a long time.

The 3rd Congressional District contains parts of Camden, Burlington and Ocean Counties.  The Camden County GOP is relatively weak compared to the Boss factor of Burlington County power boss Glenn Paulsen and Ocean County power broker George Gilmore.  Both Paulsen and Gilmore will surely want a say in the candidate, but first Paulsen will have to do battle within his county party that is currently raging over just who's calling the shots.

Burlington County

In Burlington County, likely candidates appear to represent the factions developing within the county party.  You have the "moderate" Republican State Senator Diane Allen who has run before, been contacted by the national party and has expressed interest in the seat.  She has had a rather public spat over money and power with GOP boss Glenn Paulsen who is trying to have his next door neighbor serve as chair of the party so he can pull the strings in the background and maintain his power to dole out taxpayer dollars.  He seems to have made his choice...

Paulsen said yesterday he considered BurlCo Freeholder Aubrey Fenton of Willingboro the best choice for the Republican candidate.

"If the national party cares about inclusion and African Americans, Aubrey Fenton should be someone they should get behind," Paulsen said.

County Sherriff Jean Stanfield said she won't seek the seat.  Freeholder Bill Haines would also be a possible consideration.

Ocean County

But it doesn't look like Ocean County is very anxious to see another candidate from Burlington...

It's high time (we) got a congressman from Ocean County, said Mayor Leonard Connors

County GOP Chairman George Gilmore said Ocean County has more Republican voters than either the parts of Burlington or Camden counties in the 3rd District.

According to the Ocean County Observer...

Among those he said who he expects are interested in the nomination from Ocean County are Freeholders John P. Kelly, Joseph H. Vicari and Gerry P. Little, County Clerk Carl W. Block, State GOP Committeewoman Virginia Haines, and Connors and Rumpf.
Kelly has all but said he will run for the seat and would probably be the lead candidate from the county. Little said it was to early to think about it, but he was flattered to be considered.  This'll probably move fast so he better start thinking.  Haines wants to clear it with Boss Paulsen before deciding.  Block will keep his eye on the local scene for now and Vicari wasn't available for comment in the story.

Ultimately, the question will probably be who can raise the money to mount a credible challenge to Senator John Adler who has already declared his candidacy and has raised over $200,000.

The national Republican Party is pretty much broke and Saxton could retire with his money meaning the potential GOP candidate will have to bring something to the table and get busy to raise the necessary funds for the Republicans to maintain their hold on the seat?

How will the intra-party squabble between Paulsen & Allen affect her ability to fund what is shaping up to be a difficult primary.  Will Paulsen be able to call in enough favors to finance an effective campaign with a candidate of his liking that will appeal to the voters of the district?  It's unlikely that Paulsen would let Ocean County have the candidate and clear that Ocean County is ready to have their say.  The question of who is the more powerful GOP boss will certainly be tested in a matchup of Gilmore and Paulsen and while primaries are a good thing, this would appear to be shaping up as a bruising contest for power.

With Allen being Pro-Choice, you would figure groups will be helping fund a candidate against her.  The Club for Growth may look for a candidate they could back.  Those fun "marriage protection" folks will be looking to save society as well.  Who knows what other fun activists may want to have their voices heard.  You have gender, race, ideology, money and all the makings for a hotly contested primary campaign on the Republican side of the aisle.

You can visit Senator Adler's Congressional Website  while you watch the show.

Jason Springer :: Get ready to have a GOP Rumble for the 3rd Congressional District Nomination
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Doesn't Seem Right (0.00 / 0)
that Saxton has all this money in the bank that people gave him to run for office and how he isn't going to run.  He should be required to give it back...

except that would go to funding his Republican clone.  I mean, replacement.

Eh, Adler is going to bury the competition anyway.


he should donate it... (4.00 / 2)
to an Iraq War veteran charity.

Frank LoBiondo Record and Jon Runyan Watch

[ Parent ]
I have the sense (0.00 / 0)
that the national party will support Allen:  like their Democratic counterparts, they hate primaries, and I imagine they think a moderate is a stronger candidate in NJ.  The national party backed Chafee and Specter in their primaries while conservatives rallied around challengers.

 

Frank LoBiondo Record and Jon Runyan Watch


Allen (4.00 / 1)
She's also the best known.  But if she gets stuck in a one-one race with a more conservative candidate, particularly if that candidate is from Ocean County, she could very well lose.  If could be a replay of the Gormley-LoBiondo race in '94.

[ Parent ]
how i describe the 3rd.. (0.00 / 0)
...the third district is 2/3 of Ocean+ 2/3 of BurlCo + Cherry Hill.

in fact, Cherry Hill is the only CamCo town in the 3rd.  so you could say we are a wart of the nose diamond of the ringfinger of the district.

activist for hire.Follow jay_lass on Twitter


diamond indeed (0.00 / 0)
Cherry Hill probably has more Democrats than the rest of the district put together.

If John Adler can get a massive turnout from Cherry Hill and win the town 90-10, it will give him a great shot at winning the district.

Hopefully, the right-wing-nuts in the GOP flex their muscles and keep Diane Allen from getting the nomination.  IMHO, she would be the toughest person for Adler to beat.


[ Parent ]
for once, check your math. n/t (0.00 / 0)


[ Parent ]
fuzzy math (0.00 / 0)
I don't think that any math was involved in my prior post.

I can't believe that you seriously thought that I thought there are more Democrats in Cherry Hill than the rest of the district combined.

It was an exaggeration for the purpose of making the point that John Adler will probably do much better in his hometown of Cherry Hill than past challengers who came from either Burlington or Ocean Counties, which should help him in the long run.


[ Parent ]
Levin (0.00 / 0)
Susan Bass Levin is also from Cherry Hill.  Among John's advantages is that he has more ties across the district and a better campaign persona than Levin does.

"If John Adler can get a massive turnout from Cherry Hill and win the town 90-10, it will give him a great shot at winning the district."--not to be taken literally, then?  No problem.


[ Parent ]
Levin (0.00 / 0)
What year did Levin lose to Saxton?  What was the total turnout from Cherry Hill that year?  What percentage of the Cherry Hill vote did she get?

Despite the fact that Levin was the Mayor of Cherry Hill at the time that she challenged Saxton, I vaguely remember hearing that she wasn't particularly popular there and did not perform nearly as well as expected.

Correct me if I am wrong, but I think that Cherry Hill is the only town that is shared by the 3rd CD and Adler's LD, and that the rest of the CD covers the 7th-10th LDs.

While LD7 must be Democratic enough to sustain a moderate Republican like Diane Allen and two Democratic Assemblymen, I would be surprised if any of the towns there performed as well as Cherry Hill.

Of course, one town is not going to win an election, but I think that Adler's improved performance in Cherry Hill and other Democratic towns in the district will go a long way towards closing the gap.

But then again, a lot will depend on who his oppenent is.  If it is Allen, he will probably not do as well as he might have in the LD7 part of CD3, which will mean that his performance in Cherry Hill will be even more crucial.


[ Parent ]
Adler will carry a bigger % in Willingboro than he will in Cherry Hill... (0.00 / 0)
...regardless of who the GOP nominee is.

[ Parent ]
Cherry Hill vs Willingboro (0.00 / 0)
How big are the respective turnouts in these towns?  If Cherry Hill turns out more voters than Willingboro, then even if their Democratic performance is lower, they might wind up yielding more net votes and contributing more towards an Adler victory.

This is all neither here nor there.  I was really just responding to Jay's comment about Cherry Hill being a diamond on the ring finger of the district.  I was just agreeing with him.  Does it really matter if we are wrong or not?


[ Parent ]
it's called research. give it a shot. n/t (0.00 / 0)


[ Parent ]
research (0.00 / 0)
When the accuracy of a particular statement is important enough for me to spend the time researching it, I'll do it.  Until that time, I'm fine with guesstimating.

You're going to find some reason to attack me either way, no matter how much or little research I do, so what's the difference?


[ Parent ]
Poor, poor Bert. He's always the victim. sheesh! n/t (0.00 / 0)


[ Parent ]
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