| SCHIP passed the House, but without the majority needed to overturn President Bush's "quiet" Oct. 3 veto. The House will vote to override on Oct. 17, and Saxton vows to vote to sustain.
What happened to our friendly neighborhood NJ3 "moderate"? At first I thought he cast a "What've I got to lose" vote, a hint that he would to join the ever-expanding list of retiring GOP lawmakers. And why not: he's facing a seasoned, well-financed challenger in a year that promises to be very, very bad for the GOP.
After reading the CQ piece, I'm not so sure.
As the 2008 election nears, Saxton and his ideological brethren want to use the GOP's need to hold on to difficult swing districts as leverage to further their own ambitions and agendas within the caucus, such as angling for coveted committee leadership posts.
They're operating under a simple political imperative: It's easier to get an incumbent re-elected than to orchestrate a victory for a newcomer.
According to the piece, Saxton is angling to replace retiring Duncan Hunter as ranking member (shadow chair) of the Armed Services Committee.
As a member of [House Minority Leader John] Boehner's "kitchen cabinet," Saxton has an edge on rivals and has
become one of the most influential moderate voices in the House Republican Conference.
He also has the blessing of Hunter, who predicts that other conservatives on Armed Services will not try to stand in Saxton's way. "He's not a moderate when it comes to defense," Hunter said.
Indeed. Saxton may be less entertaining than Hunter, but he's the same no-questions-asked facilitator of BushCo's endless war.
With a coveted leadership post within reach and a tough reelection ahead in a moderate district, why would Saxton blow his moderate creds on SCHIP? Why hand Dems a gift-wrapped, gold-plated, soundbite-sized cudgel: "The GOP hates sick kids"?
(Forty-five GOP House members recognized the peril and jumped ship.)
The answer, I'm guessing, is Boehner. The Minority Leader must hold on to enough votes to sustain the veto. Otherwise, the GOP's dwindling base of right-wing dead-enders is (even more) angry, Bush is (even more) humiliated, and the depth of the GOP's weakness is (even more) exposed. Even worse, the Dems gain a popular legislative victory.
Faced with this cascade of disasters, Boehner frantically opens his "Kitchen Cabinet," pulls out Saxton, and leans on him to oppose SCHIP and to sustain the veto. In return, Saxton is promised a leadership post and all the financial help he might need in '08. (Remember, Tom DeLay sent $10,000 to Saxton in '00 when NJ3 seemed to be in play, and Boehner kicked in $5,000.)
So, Saxton straps himself to the mast hoping to weather the SCHIP storm, figuring it's water under the bridge by '08. He runs for reelection touting his faux "moderation," his experience, his record of "getting things done for the district" (i.e., pork), and his probable ascension to a leadership position. And he runs against the Dem-led "Do-Nothing Congress," which he and his GOP brethren have effectively hamstrung with vetoes, filibusters, and delaying tactics.
Sounds like a plan, and one that's worked for Saxton in the past. But a powerful storm is brewing and threatens to swamp Northeast "moderates" like Saxton. Yet he seems undaunted. Already weighed down with BushCo's war, incompetence, corruption, torture, and disdain for the Constitution, Saxton took on more "Bush Ballast" with SCHIP.
Saxton's got at least $1.3 million in the bank and Boehner covering his back, so he might think he can ride out the storm and win in '08. But the weather's bad and getting worse and there's a real possibility that he'll go down with the ship.
Then again, the Dems could cave to Bush on SCHIP and make it smooth sailing for the likes of Saxton. But that'll never happen. Right? |
