Is it a race or not in the New Jersey Democratic Presidential Primary?

She seems unstoppable in NJ (4.00 / 2)

Add to the fact that Bill was boasting about her at the NJ Governor's Gala, Corzine and Menendez both endorsed her, and she came to Eagleton at the end of last year means that she is more than viable to NJ voters.  Unless something crazy happens, she'll most likely win NJ.  I'll still be voting for Edwards though in the primary!

"Give me a lever long enough... and I shall move the world." - Archimedes

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by: mconvente @ Thu Aug 09, 2007 at 19:27:35 PM UTC

Eh...whatever (4.00 / 3)

The campaign hasn't even started, as far as New Jersey is concerned.  This is all based on name recognition and cable news talking heads.  I can't take any of these polls seriously until I start seeing TV ads and local media coverage.

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by: PocketAces @ Thu Aug 09, 2007 at 20:14:47 PM UTC

I think you underestimate the power of cable news talking heads (0.00 / 0)

For me, my IDEAL candidate is Dennis Kucinich.  Look at his policy proposals: out of Iraq now, single-payer universal health care, get rid of tax cuts for wealthiest 1%, etc.  But he's not electable, so my next best choice is Edwards (and I do really love him as well).

It just seems that the media have anointed Hillary the nomination and we have to put up with it.  Hell, from the YouTube debates I've really liked what Dodd has had to say, but he gets way less airtime (him speaking or being talked about) than the "Big Three".  Politics is a lot more style over substance than it used to be, and the media bares much to blame.

"Give me a lever long enough... and I shall move the world." - Archimedes

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by: mconvente @ Thu Aug 09, 2007 at 23:17:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm going to do everything (3.67 / 3)

in my power to make this a competative race. I am talkting to evry woman I can about why voting for Hillary is not in their best interests.  I've gotten through to a few of them but there is a lot of work to do

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by: jerseygirl @ Thu Aug 09, 2007 at 21:46:29 PM UTC

not if Edwards and Obama are both on the ballot (0.00 / 0)

If Barack Obama continues to win the support of mayors in key Democratic cities, he would be in a position to compete with Hillary Clinton's establishment support, but would need the full support of the progressive community as well.

If the Blue Jersey straw poll is a good measure of the progressive community's support for the current field of Presidential candidates, and I believe that it is as good a measure as anything else that we might have, then that sector of Democratic activists are currently leaning towards Edwards at a 42-27 clip.

This does not bode well for either Edwards or Obama.  At some point in the near future, Edwards and Obama are going to have to start talking about the states where one or the other are in a position to defeat Hillary and tell their supporters to unite behind that candidate.  Otherwise, they are going to find themselves flip-flopping between 2nd and 3rd in a lot of states and Hillary will steamroll over everybody on her way to winning the Democratic nomination.

Despite the progressive community's leanings towards Edwards, they have to be realistic and know that Obama's support in NJ's major cities makes him a lock for 2nd place with Edwards coming in 3rd or worse no matter how he performs in the early states.

Progressives could be the force that helps Obama upset Clinton in NJ or that self-servingly allows her to win our state by 20 points or more.  Juan and Jeff did a good job of working together to take on Steve and Babs.  I think that many people could learn from their effectiveness.

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by: Bertin Lefkovic @ Fri Aug 10, 2007 at 03:29:11 AM UTC

Edwards, Obama, Biden, Republican primary (0.00 / 0)

No, N.J. isn't a lock for Clinton, though she does have a marked advantage at this point.  The Iowa and N.H. results will provide a boost to whomever does best, and that momentum may very well carry over into N.J.

N.J. will almost certainly be Biden's last stand, unless I'm mistaken, since he'll have to do well in his neighboring state to stand any chance at the nomination. Thus far, it doesn't look good for him.

In regard to Rachael's Dad's comments, we'll be happy to have Obama supporters for the Edwards campaign in N.J. ;) Actually, I had the same question that Hopeful had about competing in N.J. and whether it was worth it; I don't think I'm giving away the house by saying, after receiving phone calls from their people, that the Edwards campaign is going full throttle into N.J. at the moment and plans a competitive statewide campaign.

On the GOP side, they've made their nominating primary a winner-takes-all one, with Giuliani the clear favorite right now. I wonder whether that makes their primary more or less competitive; if I were in the Romney or McCain camp, I wouldn't want to cede all of those delegates to Giuliani without a fight.

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by: Martin @ Fri Aug 10, 2007 at 15:20:06 PM UTC

Biden in NJ (0.00 / 0)

If New Jersey's going to be Biden's last stand, he'd better go ahead and drop out now, because given he'll probably come in fifth(ish).

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by: Brian McGinnis @ Fri Aug 10, 2007 at 15:51:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Iowa punches three tickets... (0.00 / 0)

...and the names on those tickets will most likely be Clinton, Edwards, and Obama in some order.

If Joe Biden doesn't finish 3rd or higher in Iowa, he will be dropping out and endorsing Hillary the next day.  The same is probably true for Dodd, although he could wait until after New Hampshire in an effort to get some mojo from his New England street cred, but will most likely not make it to February 5.

Bill Richardson has to win Nevada if he doesn't finish in the top 3 in Iowa and he will most likely lose Nevada if he doesn't finish in the top 3 in Iowa.

While all of the candidates will have their slate of delegates on the NJ ballot, it is very likely that the only candidates who will be seriously competing here will be Clinton, Edwards, and Obama with Clinton winning in a landslide if the Edwards supporters are not coordinated with the Obama supporters.

The only interesting question to be answered is whether the scrappy Draft Gore NJ team that our friends at Smells Like The Onion have chosen to dismiss wins more delegates/alternates in NJ than the Edwards team.  The odds are against it, but it will be an interesting thing to keep our eyes on and see if an upset is in the making.

I'll put my money on Reed Gusciora over Mike Panter any day of the week.

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by: Bertin Lefkovic @ Sun Aug 12, 2007 at 03:48:33 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I wouldn't be surprised if... (0.00 / 0)

...the Edwards campaign doesn't spend any money on radio or tv advertising in NJ.  If their organization in NJ is savvy enough, which it might be based on the people I know who are supporting him, they might try and target certain delegate districts with cable advertising to steal a few delegate districts here and there.

If I remember correctly, I think that Dick Codey endorsed John Edwards.  If he is on the ballot in his delegate district, it is possible that his name recognition could win that one for Edwards.  I am sure that noweeman will have his delegate district locked up as well no matter who the Bergen and Passaic machines are backing.  I'll put my money on him against the machines any day of the week.

Other that that, Edwards is a longshot in NJ and any votes that he gets in NJ hurts Obama and helps Hillary and anything that helps Hillary is bad for Edwards as well.

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by: Bertin Lefkovic @ Sun Aug 12, 2007 at 03:35:05 AM UTC

[ Parent ]