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Op-Ed: A Fifty State Strategy Every Year

by: Birch Bayh

Sat Feb 17, 2007 at 08:33:01 AM EST



Shortly after the 2004 elections, Chris Bowers of the progressive blog MyDD wrote an optimistic post titled "Fifty State Strategy." In the piece, he expressed relief that in 2006, "there will be no Presidential election, and thus as a party we can return to a truly national focus." It is a shrewd, but telling observation that today more than ever, the Electoral College system is a disservice to voters.

Howard Dean's 'Fifty State Strategy' was controversial enough for a midterm election, as some party leaders feared it would "squander" the resources needed to win seats. Now, throw a presidential race into the mix -- a time when both parties siphon their resources into the handful of battleground states that sway the Electoral College. What good is a fifty state strategy when 60,000 votes in Ohio are more influential than 1.5 million nationwide?

This limited strategy requires that candidates running for the nation's highest office completely ignore three-quarters of the states, including the three most populous: California, Texas, and New York. Democrats and Republicans alike should ask, 'Why are our national leaders elected by only reaching out to a fraction of our states?' It seems inherently illogical, and it is.

The Electoral College has outlived whatever positive role it once played as a choice of convenience and compromise. Long overdue, the President and Vice President should be chosen by the same method every other elective office in this country is filled-by citizen voters of the United States in a system which counts each vote equally.

I have felt this way for some time. 30 years ago last month, I introduced a proposed Amendment to the Constitution to abolish the Electoral College and provide for direct election of the President and Vice President. As Chairman of the Senate Subcommittee on Constitutional Amendments, I held hearings, received testimony from 38 witnesses (not to mention hundreds of pages of additional statements and academic studies), and amassed nearly 2,600 pages of research on the need for electoral reform.

To me and others involved with this process, it became clear that while the Founding Founders had incredible wisdom and foresight, they were dealing with a much different society. The Electoral College was designed for the realities of their time, not ours.

Birch Bayh :: Op-Ed: A Fifty State Strategy Every Year
The landmass of the country was huge; travel and communication were arduous and primitive; and education was limited at best. Lack of information about possible Presidential candidates among the general public was a very real consideration. Also, there were issues involving slavery. At the time, 90% of the slave population lived in the South. Since the slaves could not vote, the South faced electoral domination from Northern states. While not the first choice of any Founder, the weighted Electoral College system solved these tricky considerations with a compromise which allowed them to complete the monumental task of creating our country's Constitution.

As you know, my proposed Amendment never joined this revered document, and instead became one of the estimated 704 attempts to do away with the Electoral College. Still today, I am even more firmly convinced that some positive action must be taken.

That is why I am currently involved with the campaign to pass National Popular Vote legislation in our country's state capitols. Instead of abolishing the Electoral College, National Popular Vote legislation renders it obsolete. The Constitution provides the states with the power to assign its electors in the manner they see fit. The plan is to adopt legislation in each state that automatically assigns electoral votes to the winner of the national popular vote, regardless of the winner in the state.

If enough states were to do this, the winner of the national popular vote will always become president. The state lines that cause votes to be weighed differently will be erased. A Republican vote in Michigan will be as substantial as one in Ohio. A Democratic vote in Florida becomes equal to one in Georgia.

I am posting at Blue Jersey today because National Popular Vote legislation relies on the grassroots. It is a bottom-up strategy, going from state capitols to Washington D.C. In the current state legislative sessions, National Popular Vote bills have 176 sponsors in 46 states. New Jersey is not one of them, which is surprising, given the state's tendency towards progressive policy and recent interest in presidential politics. In the words of former Acting Governor Dick Codey, New Jersey ought to be a "Presidential player" rather than "an ATM machine." While moving the primary up will get you through the half, adopting National Popular Vote legislation will take you to the final buzzer.

And for every other state overlooked as presidential candidates game the Electoral College, a National Popular Vote bill can restore relevance, democracy, and the will of the people. Americans have long desired this reform, as Gallup polls have shown strong public support for direct election of the President for over five decades.

But the most compelling reason for directly electing our president and vice president is one of principle. In the United States every vote must count equally. One person, one vote is more than a clever phrase; it's the cornerstone of justice and equality. In this day and age of computers, television, rapidly available news, and a nationwide public school system, we don't need nameless electors to cast our votes for president. The voters should cast them directly, themselves.

In my view, every presidential election year should have a national focus, but as a former candidate myself, I cannot overlook the tactical considerations needed to win the Electoral College. You can help change that by telling your legislators that our presidents should be elected directly by the people. Ask that they sponsor National Popular Vote legislation. After all, there is no better time for a fifty state strategy than the year in which we elect a president.

The Honorable Birch Bayh served as a United States Senator from Indiana from 1963 to 1981. Of his many achievements, he is the only American since the Founding Fathers to draft more than one Amendment to the Constitution.

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As a fan of electorial reform... (0.00 / 0)
...i am thrilled to have Birch Bayh appealing directly to the NJ netroots with his expertise and perspective.  It's refreshing to hear a thoughful alternative to the electoral college.  God knows, I am all ears.

And on a personal level -- as a Hoosier by birth -- it's particularly satisfying for me to have the patriarch of Indiana politics reaching out to NJ progressives right here on bluejersey.

activist for hire.Follow jay_lass on Twitter


Jay I Agree With Everything You Said And (0.00 / 0)
....everything Birch Bayh proposed.

However I must confess to a just wee bit of skepticism as to whether Bayh himself actually wrote the post. 

Oh I'm sure he read it and it expresses his thoughts and wishes, he might have even modified it to fit his voice...but I think we all have to begin to expect that lots of politicians will be hiring skilled bloggers to reach out to the netroots in ways calculated to be effective.

Obviously, people hire speech writers and copywriters all the time...so now a few bloggers can get paid too!  :-)


[ Parent ]
Nick... (0.00 / 0)
Birch Bayh actually wrote this.

[ Parent ]
I Believe you Juan.... (0.00 / 0)
see my response below.  And thanks for the correction.

I still think that many people in office will be looking to buy bloggers to be better able to reach out to the net roots.

The early effectiveness of the Dean campaign has started something which might be best discussed in another diary.

The popular election of the President is a no brainer here.

In fact, support of such a sensible piece of legislation should become an issue in any senate or assembly race where the candidate isn't supporting it.

In the current state legislative sessions, National Popular Vote bills have 176 sponsors in 46 states. New Jersey is not one of them, which is surprising, given the state's tendency towards progressive policy and recent interest in presidential politics.

Maybe we can do something about motivating some smart/brave NJ legislator to introduce this initiative?!?


[ Parent ]
Yup. (0.00 / 0)
These are Birch's words. He was a professor of mine and remains a friend, and I suggested he write an op-ed for us about this issue, which he cares deeply about. While I helped to frame the conversation, these are his words.

[ Parent ]
I'm Impressed... (0.00 / 0)
It means that he's been following NJ politics and Blue Jersey...and that's wonderful.

I guess that this is an issue that he has been working on for so much time and is sufficiently dedicated to that it's worth his time these days to actually become a blogger! 

Thanks for the clarification JRB, I stand corrected.

And, Birch...if you're reading this, my humble apologies.  :-)


[ Parent ]
Re (4.00 / 1)
The symbollic difference is substantial.  Other than that, I don't think a popular vote would change much.

The plan is to adopt legislation in each state that automatically assigns electoral votes to the winner of the national popular vote, regardless of the winner in the state.

If enough states were to do this, the winner of the national popular vote will always become president.

Actually, it would accomplish nothing of the kind.  For it to be true, you would have to find a time when electors voted against the popular vote of their state.  There are often a few scattered "faithless electors", but never enough to flip the election.

If you examine the 2000 election, Gore still won the popular vote.  However, there were no faithless electors in 2000 - so the electoral college vote would have been exactly the same as it was.  Gore still would have lost Florida based on the SCOTUS decision.  It would have taken only three faithless electors to make Gore President.  That it didn't happen shows that there is little need for a law to bind electors and that doing so would not change the outcome of what is possibly the worst run election in recent history.  If it can't change this outcome, then why bother?

The case of Florida in 2000 and Ohio in 2004 also raises another issue: the manipulation or outright fraudulent counting of the popular vote.  Allowing electors to vote against their popular vote at least gives a hope (though a slender and foolish one) that the conscience of the electors could move them to vote against widespread corruption or vote manipulation.  Tying them directly to the popular outcome would eliminate that completely.

The general effect of faithless electors has been to lodge protest votes - most have said they would not have changed their votes if it would have mattered.  So you have Dr. Lloyd Bailey of North Carolina voting against Richard Nixon in 1968 and Roger MacBride of Virginia doing the same in 1972.  Mike Padden of Washington voted for Ronald Reagan instead of Ford in 1976 because of Ford's pro-choice credentials.  THen there is the humorous example of Margarette Leach of W. Va. who decided single-handedly to reverse the Democratic ticket of 1988 (Bentsen-Dukakis).

XT


I don't follow your comment (0.00 / 0)
If states representing 270 electoral votes made this agreement, then whoever won the popular vote would automatically get a majority in the electoral college.  The electors in these states would be decided by the national result and not their state's vote.

For example, imagining that Texas, California, Florida, and New Jersey [and of course other states] they would ALL have gone to Clinton in 1996, Gore in 2000, and Bush in 2004. 


Frank LoBiondo Record and Jon Runyan Watch


[ Parent ]
Re (0.00 / 0)
Sorry, I misread the post.  You are correct.

However, as I pointed out, this would change the outcome of the Presidency very rarely.  It also would do nothing to deal with the issues of Florida in 2000 or Ohio in 2004 - if widespread popular electoral corruption exists, then this method would simply corronate whoever cheats best.

XT


[ Parent ]
X-Tex makes a good point. I will try to make another (0.00 / 0)
Eliminating the Elec. college will likely cause the NY & LA media markets to get all the presidential campaign attention. It may show true that all other states will not see a candidates shadow.

Instead I would offer we elminate the winner take all policy in the Electorial college. This way a 50% plus
1 win in NY will not give you that states votes. Instead you will gain the electorial votes that are equivilant to 50% plus 1. Raising the importance of smaller media market regions.

Its really a stale debate, its been going on, in my memory, for 30+ yrs. Though its a debate I encourage, maybe someday we will act.



Check out my 3 paragraph primer on Polywell Fusion.


[ Parent ]
A Valid Point... (0.00 / 0)
...but even as things are now, states that are not "in play" receive little paid media and few campaign visits.  This is the nature of politics.

The fact that small states (population wise) each get two Senators is more than enough geographical "balance".

Though, you are right that this is a perennial debate and not likely to be settled in our lifetimes...I am still not very pleased with the results of Bush v Gore; and on balance, it would be a good bill to support in the state legislature.

Perhaps it'll take a few years of Republicans losing the Presidency while winning the popular vote to see some change!

A far more radical and effective change would be to go to a system of instant run-off elections....but that's another diary.  (Two Actually!)

http://www.bluejerse...

http://www.bluejerse...

Then again, how about simply having honest elections where every vote was actually counted accurately!!!


[ Parent ]
Once in a while I have a valid point, . . . . . on my head (0.00 / 0)

I am still not very pleased with the results of Bush v Gore;

Cause for removing a few (5) SC judges from office, No?

Then again, how about simply having honest elections where every vote was actually counted accurately!!!

Darn finickly LIBS !

Check out my 3 paragraph primer on Polywell Fusion.


[ Parent ]
I bet if we were all in a .... (0.00 / 0)
bar in Hoboken having this discussion over a few drinks (Guiness!) we could get it all settled in no time at all!  :-)

[ Parent ]
No way, I would declare Death Match & fight you to the death... (0.00 / 0)
Guiness? Over my dead body.....

LOL.

Plus, Doesn't X-Tex live over there? We would have to invite him.

Check out my 3 paragraph primer on Polywell Fusion.


[ Parent ]
Re (0.00 / 0)
I stay out of Hoboken whenever possible.  It's overpriced and traffic/parking is ridiculous.

XT


[ Parent ]
Re (0.00 / 0)
So you would be fine with NJ casting its '04 electoral votes for George Bush?  How would that be an improvement in anything?

XT


[ Parent ]
Missing the point (0.00 / 0)
If I understand the national popular vote plan correctly, "winning" or "losing" individual states becomes irrelevant.  The campaign is now about getting as many votes as possible.  Like it or not, that is not the way presidential campaigns currently operate. 

The campaigns are interested in getting as many votes as possible, but only in battleground states.  That is why those are the only states where campaigning, advertising, discussing specific local issues actually occurs.  Bush didn't care about getting votes in Texas.  He knew that without any campaigning he would still receive all of the electoral votes.  Kerry knew the same held true for Massachusetts. 

I understand what XT is saying, I just think that the average person thinks that the candidate that receives the most popular votes should get elected. 


[ Parent ]
wouldn't there be national ads? (0.00 / 0)
I mean, usually national companies advertise by buying national ads -- why would Presidential campaigns be different?  To be sure, there'd be some regional or local ads too. 

Now Presidential candidates would not visit all 50 states, but they don't now anyway. 


Frank LoBiondo Record and Jon Runyan Watch


[ Parent ]
Right, but (0.00 / 0)
Right now presidential campaigns focus on the LA & NY media markets and up to maybe tops 16 swing states. BAsed on they can win by hitting NY & LA and some swing state, 55 million votes should win the race.

Now if you change the rules & base the race on the popular vote, What campagns will do is look at the race in a dollar per voter frame. HItting the NY & LA markets will get the widest coverage, proly 50 million  people. Theoretically 55 million votes will win it. SO where is the incentive to go much beyond the NY & LA markets ?

Where if we make it so that if you win NY by 51%, you get 51% of NY electorial votes... samee for LA. In This scenario you need to go the 2nd'ary markets. Since the current scenario means competing in NY & LA, plus some swing states, IF that prize is devalued by 50%, you need to go elsewhere to get more votes.

This is why stopping the "winner takes all the states electorial votes" will increase campaigns reach to beyond the current LA, NY & some swing states.

Resulting in campaigns going to New Mexico, Idaho, Montana.

Check out my 3 paragraph primer on Polywell Fusion.


[ Parent ]
Big Cities Myth (0.00 / 0)
I was also concerned about big cities and media markets dominating the process.  I actually did a little math.  If one candidate were to receive 75% of the vote (absurd) in every one of the 100 largest cities (even more absurd) they would still not be 1/2 of the way to receiving enough votes to get elected.  What my investigation revealed was that the overwhelming number of people in the US do not live in big cities.

[ Parent ]
Gee, and I Thought it Was a No Brainer... (4.00 / 1)
As I understand Bayh's intiative, such legislation would have the net result (again, if passed by a sufficient number of states) of having the winner of the national popular vote become president.  I believe that is an end to be desired.

I think that would be more than just a symbolic good.  It would be a victory for democracy.

The electoral college is indeed an anachronism, a relic of the past and in the case of Gore v Bush; it changed the course of history...for the worse. 

It certainly couldn't hurt if a state like NJ supported this at the state level.

 


[ Parent ]
Time to retire the EC (4.00 / 1)
The time for the Electoral College to be abolished has come and yet Democrats do nothing.

Ironically and historically speaking, Democrats have been on the short end of all Electoral College disputes which led to Democrats ultimately losing the presidency:

1796: T Jefferson loses to  J Adams

1824: A Jackson loses to JQ Adams

1876: S Tilden loses to RB Hayes

1888: G Cleveland loses to  B Harrison for re-election

2000: A Gore loses to GW Bush

In each case, the losing candidate was a Democrat and one was a Democratic incumbent (Cleveland) who lost his own state for re-election (New York) much like Al Gore (Tennessee) in 00.

What about a constitutional amendment abolishing the Electoral College? Are we to believe we can't accurately count votes?

Banks have full proof, ATM systems that control billions of dollars of bank accounts. We can develop a system that can accurately count 100 million votes every four years?


With this one are you making the case for impeaching 5 SCJudges (0.00 / 0)

2000: A Gore loses to GW Bush

In My own twisted way, thats what I get when I read that.

Check out my 3 paragraph primer on Polywell Fusion.


[ Parent ]
If we had a congress with the votes to.... (0.00 / 0)
...impeach those 5 judges; they wouldn't have ruled the way they did....and we would be living in a radically different America anyway!

Impeachment is a political process, unfortunately, the body politic is not yet ready to go that far. 

The commercial media certainly ain't gonna tell folks just how badly they're being screwed over...and the folks in Congress are mostly establishmentarian hacks who stick their finger up in the air to see which way the wind blows before taking a strong position on anything.

As more and more shit hits more and more fans the level of pain and suffering will increase to the point where even the sleepers in deep sleep will awaken...let's hope it isn't too late to fix things at that point.

It's kind of ironic that the parasites feeding off of the body politic may wind up killing their host and end up kaput themselves.  Not a good way to achieve justice.

 


[ Parent ]
but that is the key to Bayh's proposal (0.00 / 0)
Enough states can make a binding agreement without going through the process of a constitutional amendment. This is key since you will never get rid of the electoral college since why would a small state agree to it? 

So you would still have the same consitution and the electoral college, but it would not matter and the national popular vote winner would win!

Frank LoBiondo Record and Jon Runyan Watch


[ Parent ]
AMEN! (0.00 / 0)
"Banks have full proof, ATM systems that control billions of dollars of bank accounts."
And can count accurately right down to the cent.
So I guess what we've learned penny is more important than a vote.

[ Parent ]
Bottom Lines (0.00 / 0)
From Bayh's editorial above...

I have felt this way for some time. 30 years ago last month, I introduced a proposed Amendment to the Constitution to abolish the Electoral College and provide for direct election of the President and Vice President. As Chairman of the Senate Subcommittee on Constitutional Amendments, I held hearings, received testimony from 38 witnesses (not to mention hundreds of pages of additional statements and academic studies), and amassed nearly 2,600 pages of research on the need for electoral reform.

I dare say, anything we've written here has ben thoroughly covered somewhere in those 26,000 pages.  LOL

I truly do suspect that, after 30 years of advocacy, Bayh has covered all the bases.

The more I look into it the more sense this makes.

Here's a low key video that answers most of the obvious questions...

http://www.jsonline....


After watching the movie and going over (0.00 / 0)
the other sources, I am not so down on Bayhs proposal. AS of today I am not sure that Bayhs proposal gets the whole fix in.

Check out my 3 paragraph primer on Polywell Fusion.

The Whole Fix Will Have To Include... (0.00 / 0)
public financing of campaigns.

The current system is tantamount to legalized bribery and costs the taxpayers hundreds of times more (because of the inflated budgets that result from corruption/boodoggles/seetheart deals/revolving doors/etc) than it would cost to foot the bill for campaigns.

There are all manner of ways to do it....and the potential "devil" is certainly in the details; but it could be done....and, I predict, will be done eventually. 

Ideally, the funding formulas would address the concerns of running a campaign in all media markets.  Part of that could be achieved by legislating that the broadcast media that relies on the publicly owned airwaves to serve that public by allocating a serious chunk of free time to campaigns.

The consequences of an essentially corrupt governance are no longer sustainable. 

Our very survival as a people is at stake...it's no longer just about some fat cats taking their "cut" of the action. 

Bayh's proposal is clearly one part of the mix, but not the most important.  I would rank instant run off voting as an even more urgent reform.

Here's a nifty video on that...

http://www.youtube.c...


[ Parent ]
IRV, yuck, pahooey, cough, sputter, hack (0.00 / 0)


Check out my 3 paragraph primer on Polywell Fusion.

[ Parent ]
I think you need popular vote with/before IRV (0.00 / 0)
Imagine the consequences under the current Constitution if a third party is able to win a significant number of states.  Once no one gets a majority in the electoral college, the Presidential election goes to the House (under a bizarre procedure, where states vote equally, so Delaware and Texas will have equal votes) and the VP to the Senate.  It will certainly not serve democracy. 


Frank LoBiondo Record and Jon Runyan Watch

[ Parent ]
SO the goal of IRV is for a 3rd party to get (0.00 / 0)
equal with the other 2...

Doesn't that in essence, by elevating the...say Green Party... to equal footing with DEMS & Rpeubs,

SAy in 08 the
Dems get 37%
greens get 33%
Repubs 30%

Doesn't that then create a new 3rd party.... ?

Then in 2010 the Repubs use IRV to advantage, as the GReens did in 08....

Check out my 3 paragraph primer on Polywell Fusion.


[ Parent ]
I don't know who it would help (0.00 / 0)
The Greens, the Libertarians, Unity '08, Bloomberg, Perot, Buchanan, a conservative religious party?  There are lots of exciting possibilities, and that aspect of IRV may be healthy. 

But I am sure that having the Republicans (or Dems) win the Presidency on a party-line, state-by-state vote in the House would be bad for our country.  I guess there could be IRV within the electoral college too, but I think that would require a constitutional amendement.



Frank LoBiondo Record and Jon Runyan Watch


[ Parent ]
It's Really Not As Clunky Or As... (0.00 / 0)
...Rube Goldberg-ish as it may seem at first glance.  Though I can certainly understand your initial reaction. LOL

Let me make it real simple.

Had we had IRV in Floridai in 2000, we would now have Al Gore in the white House.  The votes that went to Nader would likely most (if not all) had gone to Gore in an instant runoff America.

The terror and death and wasteful destruction of the Bush years would have been relegated to a "what if" virtually worst case horror scenario; as it is we are living in that scenario......with no end in sight.

IRV serves the interests of majority rule/democracy and allows the "two party system" to better reflect the real wishes of the majority of voters.


[ Parent ]
Bush v Gore SC decision. trumps IRV, no? (0.00 / 0)


Check out my 3 paragraph primer on Polywell Fusion.

[ Parent ]
No (0.00 / 0)
In an IRV world there would have been a clear uncontestable majority result for Gore; and no grounds for any judicial rulings to change the wishes of the majority.

IRV is simply a means for insuring that the will of the majority can be expressed in an efficient and effective manner.  It only seems complex or clunky on the surface and at first blush...kinda like the first time you got on a bicycle.

This all fits hand in glove with Bayh's proposal.

The idea would have the result of freeing individual people (not "Electors" that's another kettle of fishiness ;-) to vote for their "ideal" candidate and it would show us more clearly where the electorate stands....and I dare say it would greatly broaden the electorate and bring more interests and groups into the process all while insuring that the ultimate victor in any given election was actually a reflection of the majority.

Now, wouldn't THAT be cool!


[ Parent ]
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