Forty Districts and Twenty-One Counties

Sorry (0.00 / 0)

for all the bold.  Technically, I am a totally inept idiot.

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by: SmartyJones @ Fri Dec 22, 2006 at 14:55:35 PM UTC

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Can't I Get A Recommendation??? (0.00 / 0)

I got some nice comments and even provoked a competing diary.  Can't I get a recommendation from anybody?  :-)

Merry Christmas!

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by: Creed Pogue @ Fri Dec 22, 2006 at 23:56:26 PM UTC

Merry belated Christmas (0.00 / 0)

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by: Jeff Gardner @ Tue Dec 26, 2006 at 16:28:36 PM UTC

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How about a Happy belated Hanukkah? (0.00 / 0)

It would seem that a diary that puts as much emphasis on making our state's Democratic majority more progressive as it does on expanding the size of that majority deserves its place on the front page too.

Electing more Democrats isn't necessarily going to get us any closer to marriage equality or progressive property tax reform, but electing more progressive Democrats definitely will.

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by: Bertin Lefkovic @ Tue Dec 26, 2006 at 16:45:46 PM UTC

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Happy belated Hanukkah - kindof (4.00 / 1)

I agree with the gist of your diary - that a 40-district strategy shouldn't be limited to the 14 Republican districts - and I said so in my comment promoting this diary. Patience - something tells me this topic will find its way to the front page more than once in the coming months.

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by: Jeff Gardner @ Tue Dec 26, 2006 at 16:58:28 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Same thoughts, different day (3.67 / 3)

Creed, here's what I posted November 8th.  It's long, but what the hell.  We're on the right track!

50 states, 21 counties
by: DottieG
Wed Nov 08, 2006 at 11:20:19 AM EST

(I heart Howard Dean - promoted by jay lassiter)

Of course I am thrilled that Menendez won, and by such a substantial margin.  And of course I am saddened that Linda Stender wasn't able to knock off Ferguson--although she did better against him than anyone else has ever done, and she can beat him if she runs again in 2008!

But looking at the national election results, it is crystal clear that Howard Dean's 50-state strategy paid off big-time.  Whoever dreamed we could pick up Senate seats in places like Ohio...Missouri...Virginia?  Or that we could retake the House by such a big margin in such a wide variety of states?  (I can't help gloating over our capture of Tom DeLay's House seat in Texas, Foley's seat in Florida, and the Governor's mansion in Ohio.)

I am so proud of Linda Stender, Paul Aronsohn, Tom Wyka, Rich Sexton, Carol Gay, and Viola Thomas-Hughes--they took on extraordinarily tough races, worked like bloody hell against terrible odds, and did a great job.

Now what we have to do in New Jersey is adopt a 21-county strategy.  While NJ's Republican congressmen were all re-elected, a close look at the county-by-county results in each CD demonstrates that we have made substantial inroads--and if we analyze the results in every municipality in every county, it will get even more interesting. 

In part, it's a question of demographics--as people move from urban areas to the suburbs, many now take their values with them--unlike those blue-collar "Reagan Democrats" of a generation ago.  But there's more to it than that--social class makes a greater difference now than it has for years.  Historically, most Americans have defined themselves as "middle-class," and the only difference now is that "working-class" has become an acceptable self-description for many more people.  These days, there are the rich--and then there are the rest of us.

Looking ahead, Democrats in NJ and all over the country can't write off any state, any CD, any LD, any county or any municipality.  In 2007, NJ voters will elect legislators, freeholders, and local officials, and in 2008 in addition to the national election we will also have county and municipal offices at stake.  There are Democratic Committee seats up in primary elections every year.  We need to keep building on what we have accomplished this year--around the country, in every state, in every district from the top of the ticket all the way down.

Politics is sometimes defined as "the art of the possible."  Sociologist Max Weber defined it as "the slow boring of hard boards."  I define it as "the process through which values are transformed into public policy."  Too often, political activity is seen is something one does only during an election season--but that's wrong; we need to look at it as going on 365 days a year (366 days in presidential years).  Throughout NJ and the rest of the country, voters have shown that progressive values reflect their own.  Let's not forget that--and let's not go away and wait until next time around!

The election results across the country prove that Howard Dean's 50-state strategy was exactly right.  At the national level, we need to keep on doing that--and now, we need to implement a 21-county strategy in NJ.

Juan, keep up the good work!  You have done fabulous things with Blue Jersey this year and we all need you to keep the movement moving--momentum is on our side, and we can't stop now!

 

"Do what you can, with what you have, where you are."  (Teddy Roosevelt)

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by: DottieG @ Sun Dec 24, 2006 at 00:40:17 AM UTC

As Lliibbyy said on November 9 (0.00 / 0)

in "Dean's 50-state strategy / NJ's 21-county strategy"
(by: LLiibbyy - Thu Nov 09, 2006 at 23:43:45 PM EST)
http://www.bluejerse...

(and I paraphrase) we need to be on the ground in all counties and districts, all year.

One NJ4D leader has been advocating for an impressive and (I think) effective county committee project for more than a year, but I don't see any activity on the page you linked to.

Is there news somewhere that indicates this project will take shape and be implemented? It's an amazing idea that deserves support. Can NJ4D leadership tell us what comes next?

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by: Katherine @ Tue Dec 26, 2006 at 17:04:55 PM UTC

County Committee Project (0.00 / 0)

Good question. Yes - absolutely - this project will take shape, and is taking shape, with regional trainings being planned in northern, central and southern New Jersey for early 2007 (dates, times, and locations TBA shortly), as discussed and planned for during August's DFA Training Academy.

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by: Jeff Gardner @ Tue Dec 26, 2006 at 17:28:21 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

County Committee project (0.00 / 0)

I have some 40+ years of experience in this kind of thing and would be glad to help with regional trainings, etc.  The key is a serious effort to apply Howard Dean's 50-state strategy to NJ's 21 counties--once the strategy is in place, the rest is all logistics, and the devil is always in the details!

"Do what you can, with what you have, where you are."  (Teddy Roosevelt)

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by: DottieG @ Tue Dec 26, 2006 at 19:56:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Morris County (0.00 / 0)

Has already started recruiting staff for our assembly campaign.

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by: doughnutman @ Wed Dec 27, 2006 at 05:30:00 AM UTC

If we're talking targets... (0.00 / 0)

We should think about where the state party is less likely to lend a hand.  They, of course, will be defending Karcher and Madden, but where can we help that they won't?  I guessing there will be limited activity in the 8th, 10th 11th, 13th, 23rd, 24th, 25th and 26th districts.  I think if we're going to have a 40 district strategy we need to be the ones to enact it.  Relying on the state party to target places they feel they can't win isn't a great idea. 

When talking same-sex marriage the highest target in my mind is Cardinale.  The 39th is moving our way and in such a low turnout year we could definitely pick off the republicans here.

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by: jerzay @ Wed Dec 27, 2006 at 15:40:29 PM UTC

the 8th (0.00 / 0)

i wouldn't be surprised to see more action in the 8th this time around with Bark not running for her Senate seat again and the troubles at the bridge commission. 

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by: Jason Springer @ Wed Dec 27, 2006 at 15:57:00 PM UTC

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Bark (0.00 / 0)

She was one of the "Hateful Eight" that voted against the transequality bill. It was a surprise for a lame duck that some folks thought moderate, and with whose staffers I had spoken on few occasions, but she showed her true colors!

"Discrimination caused by ignorance and fear is a tax on human progress" - Barbra Casbar Siperstein

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by: Babs NJSD @ Wed Dec 27, 2006 at 16:21:55 PM UTC

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8th (0.00 / 0)

Worst part.  Who is going to run in the 8th? Is there anyone?  I know that Burlco just got a Democratic Surrogate but i doubt they'd switch to run here.  Are there any local candidates that could be persuaded??

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by: jerzay @ Wed Dec 27, 2006 at 16:22:22 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Rich Sexton is from Moorestown... (4.00 / 1)

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by: Scott Weingart @ Wed Dec 27, 2006 at 17:24:15 PM UTC

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Sexton (0.00 / 0)

Is he planning on a rematch in '08??  Anyone have district 8 specfic results from '06?  How did Sexton do here? 

Bob Gordon ran in a primary against Steve Rothman and then went on to win a District 38 assembly seat, so maybe Sexton could do the same. 

Could he be persuaded to run?

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by: jerzay @ Wed Dec 27, 2006 at 18:02:09 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

district 8 & Sexton (3.00 / 1)

The district 8 Assembly candidates last cycle were not strong and did not fundraise.  There is a new chairman and hopefully he will invest there, but alot depends on the Senate Seat.  Martha Bark, the current State Senator is under investigation and both Assemblymen, Bodine & Chatzidakis want the seat.  If one moves up, they need to fill that slot on the ticket as well.  Don't know much about who the Dems will put up as candidates.

As for Sexton, he did well in Burlington County, the problem was Ocean County in his congressional race.  Sexton got just less than 44% of the vote in Burlington County (Link to Results) against Saxton which could provide a nice base for any future run.

Burlington County is also trending blue in the 8th on the local level with Dems making gains in Moorestown and Mt Laurel.  There are municipal elections in Evesham in May with the Mayor and 2 council seats up and an active local party working hard for the election.

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by: Jason Springer @ Wed Dec 27, 2006 at 18:16:39 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

11th... (0.00 / 0)

There are open Assembly seats here, so I doubt we'll ignore the district.

I'd also take the 25th off the list of seats that will be ignored.  It's not that conservative, certainly not as conservative as Merkt and Carroll.

I don't see us making a big play in the 9th, unless you know something I don't.

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by: Scott Weingart @ Wed Dec 27, 2006 at 17:31:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

we'll see (0.00 / 0)

What Kean and Cordemus do.  are they both going for Palaia's Senate seat?  if so then we could have a bruising primary and two open assembly seats.  That could bring us some luck in the district.  Its definitely a district I think could swing our way via turnout. 

the 25th in my mind will be tough.  Who are our potential candidates?  Is Dana Wefer going to make another go at freeholder?

the 9th is definitely far from reach, but we should hope for some strong candidates anyway. 

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by: jerzay @ Wed Dec 27, 2006 at 18:08:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

11th & 25th (0.00 / 0)

The 11th will be to the Democrats what the 12th will be to the Republicans, which is each party's best hope to gain seats in 2007.

The two guys who ran for Assembly in 2005 came very close to winning and a motivated and organized LGBTI community in Asbury Park could put the Democrats over the top here.  Someone needs to start a Draft Mike Beson for State Senate movement over there.

Thom Jackson and Janice Schindler narrowed the gap in the 25th in 2005.  If they run again and can get Dana Wefer to run for State Senate instead of Freeholder, they could make that race one to watch in 2007.

Don't forget about the 21st.  It is a tough district with Junior at the top of the ticket, but the Democrats could have Long Hill Twp. Mayor, Gina Genovese at the top of ours.

If Union County bosswoman, Charlotte DeFilippo, doesn't get in Gina's way, can put her issues with Millburn Councilwoman and past State Senate and State Assembly candidate, Ellen Steinberg, who is an extraordinary fundraiser, aside for a moment, and pair the two of them with Springfield Mayor, Clara Harelik, this would be a truly formidable team.

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by: Bertin Lefkovic @ Wed Dec 27, 2006 at 19:24:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Let's talk Passaic (0.00 / 0)

Do the Democrats in Passaic County completely ignore the northern part of the county?  Does there entire operation rely on Paterson?  Lots of people move out there for the scenery and the cheaper real estate.  Will Speziale be able to help bring in the votes from there?

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by: jerzay @ Wed Dec 27, 2006 at 16:29:11 PM UTC

Passaic (0.00 / 0)

Do the Democrats in Passaic County completely ignore the northern part of the county?

Yes.

Does their entire operation rely on Paterson?

No.  They also put a lot of effort into winning Clifton and Passaic as well.

Feisty local Democratic organizations have had some success in places like Little Falls and West Paterson with little to no support from the county bosses.  I expect others like Hawthorne to follow their model in the years to come.

Will Speziale be able to help bring in the votes from there?

Not likely.

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by: Bertin Lefkovic @ Wed Dec 27, 2006 at 18:50:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

23rd and 24th (0.00 / 0)

These are incredibly difficult districts for Democrats.  Both are essential areas to help Congressional candidates in 08 and beyond.  The more ground work we lay in 07 can only help later.  Warren will increasingly become a suburbia of Eastern PA.  Sussex will probably get a boost from the extending of the New york suburbs and maybe the expansion of Mountain Creek(if it ever gets cold enough to snow).  Soon enough there will be a lot more Democrats moving to these areas and we need to have an infrastructure ready once they arrive.  PLUS this is where Garrett is from, gotta hit the bad guys at home!

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by: jerzay @ Wed Dec 27, 2006 at 20:30:35 PM UTC

The Democratic Party in Sussex County is lifeless (0.00 / 0)

We hold something like half a dozen municipal offices in the entire county.  Democrats usually don't contest elections there, and when they do, they usually get beaten like red-headed stepchildren.

We have a lot more hope in Warren and Hunterdon Counties.  Phillipsburg and the surrounding localities are growing in population, and they represent the best hope for Democrats to establish a stronghold in Warren County.  The riverside towns in Hunterdon are already Democratic (Lambertville & Stockton especially so).  Rush Holt has shored up his support in Hunterdon County (won by 22), and Linda Stender exceeded expectations against Mike Ferguson here, too.  You'll never beat a Leonard Lance or a Bill Schluter in the 23rd, but Doherty or Karrow could be unseated in a bad Republican year.

As for Scott Garrett, we better take him down before 2012 or we're probably going to have to deal with him for a while.  The new map will probably make his district even redder than it is now.  It's too bad Democrats weren't in the majority back in 2002, because we might have gotten Marge Roukema to switch parties instead of retiring.

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by: Scott Weingart @ Wed Dec 27, 2006 at 21:28:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Cardinale, Vandervalk and Rooney (0.00 / 0)

These three are soooo ready to get the boot.  With a great showing in 05 and even better in 06 by Democrats in the district it is time to take this district!

Rooney lost his mayoral seat in Northvale.

Rooney and Vandervalk were threatened with a primary challenge at the end of last year's primary for Bergen Freeholders. 

McNerney got the most votes of any candidate in the district this year, beating Menendez and Junior. 

It shows there are plenty of people in the district who are willing to vote Democrat.  We just have to put up some stellar candidates and get people out to vote.

All these towns are trending blue.  Its definitely a top target.

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by: jerzay @ Wed Dec 27, 2006 at 20:49:09 PM UTC

District 40 (0.00 / 0)

So this is where i grew up.  Fun Fun.  Hank McNamara needs to go and if we don't get rid of him his son will swoop in and keep the tradition of bad senators alive.  He's currently in the Wyckoff township committee and once daddy stops running he'll be ready. UNLESS we can get rid of them this year.  A challenge and a far fetched one.  Can it be done?  Three counties in this district can help spread the wealth to get rid of them!

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by: jerzay @ Fri Dec 29, 2006 at 16:35:05 PM UTC

I would bet Garrett's district is re-drawn... (0.00 / 0)

He probably wants to lose Democratic towns like Glen Rock, Ridgewood, and Tenafly.

Right now I see Bill Pascrell losing his district in 2010 if we lose one. The Latino parts of Clifton, Paterson and Passaic go to Albio Sires, the African-American neighborhood in Paterson goes to Payne. Most likely Belleville and Bloomfield will be split between the current 10th and 13th. That is how you sustain two minority-majority districts. Rothman and a moderately Republican  Northern Bergen-Passaic-Morris district split Bergen County.  Garrett is banished to either the hinterlands of NW NJ or simply only has the most right-wing parts of Bergen and Passaic.

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by: ModerateObserver @ Fri Dec 29, 2006 at 16:47:02 PM UTC