News Round-up & Open Thread for Thursday, Oct 12

by: Juan Melli

Thu Oct 12, 2006 at 09:02:54 AM EDT

36 years ago today, President Nixon announced another round of troop withdrawals from South Vietnam. Despite already losing the war, Bush bravely insists on keeping others' sons and daughters in Iraq without a plan until they're all killed, or until he leaves office - whichever comes first.

And now back to your regularly scheduled news:

The latest Quinnipiac University poll has Menendez ahead 49%-45%, a 7 point swing since September when Kean Jr led 48%-45%. A Rasmussen poll will show Menendez ahead 44%-40%.

Not surprisingly, members of the Black Ministers Council endorsed Bob Menendez yesterday saying Kean Jr has offered nothing but unsubstantiated negative attacks. They also "voiced concern over Kean's 2002 vote in Trenton opposing racial profiling legislation." Kean Jr's spokeswoman says he actually did vote for it in the Senate after he voted against it in the Assembly.

Hamilton mayor Glen Gilmore has donated more than $12,000 he received from John Lynch, who recently pleaded guilty to corruption. "Gilmore had originally declined to give up the money, but changed his mind this week." Mercer County Republicans are calling the Mercer Democratics to return over $32,000 they've received from Lynch. Democrats say Republicans are hypocrites and should return $36,000 from Harry Parkin and others - all of whom pleaded or were found guilty as well.

There's not much love for Sen Karcher's bill to ban trans fats from restaurant food. Assemblyman Lou Manzo said "I just don't like the taste of this bill."

Third district legislators, Sen Stephen Sweeney and Assemblymen John Burzichelli and Doug Fisher, visited with students at Woodstown. One eighth grader said: "I never realized what they could actually do...It's nice to finally be able to see how they can affect us on a daily basis." Another added: "They made me really want to learn more about politics...They inspired me to maybe one day become a politician."

Assemblyman Joe Roberts has proposed creating 21 "super" county school superintendents as a way to cut property taxes, but ~~Assemblyman~~ Senator Bob Smith wants to go a step further and create 21 "administrative" county school districts, where purchasing, HR, transportation and other work is consolidated, eliminating an estimated 600 local administrators and staffers.

Juan Melli :: News Round-up & Open Thread for Thursday, Oct 12

Tags: Joe Roberts, taxes, consolidation, Quinnipiac, poll, Stephen Sweeney, John Burzichelli, Doug Fischer, Allen Karcher, Lou Manzo, Bob Menendez, Tom Kean Jr, Black Ministers Council, Glen Gilmore, Mercer County, (All Tags)

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News Round-up & Open Thread for Thursday, Oct 12 | 3 comments

The folks @ Quinnipiac University don't get NJ. (0.00 / 0)

Are these the same folks who had Bush Winning NJ over Kerry 56% to 44%? When Kerry won by what? 56% to 44%. IIRC thats a 16 pt error. Are these the same people who said last years Governors race was tight? The race where Corzine won by what.. 8-9 pts. Maybe I am losing my mind.

Quinnipiac University seems to use a very strange weighting system. The Quinnipiac University poll in September, that had Kean up by 3 pts... claimed Indie voters were breaking to Kean by 2 pts (IIRC). Fooey I say, Indie voters would have to have been breaking to Kean by 60% to 65% to account for the Sept. results. But yet Quinnipiac University claimed Indies were nearly even. Faa- ooey.

Now in this new poll Quinnipiac University says Bob Menendez is up by 4 pts. Yet the break downs are nearly the same...... SO.... my question to Quinnipiac University is, Why did you change your weightings? And is this your partial correction for screwing up so consistantly in the past?

FDU has Bob Menendez up by 7%, while Zogby has Menendez up by 11%. In 2004 Kerry won NJ by 8%, Corzine won by 9%. When I do my own math, I have Menendez up by 7%. And Menendez is trending up. I predict Bob Menendez will win by 10%.

I wonder if polls like this (showing a closer race) will help Kean with his fundraising?

Check out my 3 paragraph primer on Polywell Fusion.

by: FogerRox @ Thu Oct 12, 2006 at 14:19:25 PM UTC

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Typically (0.00 / 0)

the polls always have NJ much closer than the actual vote. I remember at one point in 2004 there was serious talk of Bush carrying the state, based supposedly on some collective memory of 9/11. Anyway, Quinnipiac had Junior up last month, so the latest result is a swing of 7 points. And the fact that all of the other recent polls have Menendez out in front is encouraging. The sole nagging doubt in my mind now is not knowing whether the Kean people have already taken their best shot. I suspect that they have, given that they were so desperate to come up with dirt that they were willing to consort with a convicted felon like Janisiewski (which I think backfired). But one can never be sure, especially if Rove is involved.

I agree with you that Menendez looks like a winner. Just let's not get complacent and start to think we can coast to the finish line.

by: Rufus T Firefly @ Thu Oct 12, 2006 at 15:03:33 PM UTC

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