"Eyes Up Here": Look up north to see if NJ D's are serious

Seriously?! (0.00 / 0)

Do you really believe that the solution to this situation is more powerful bosses?  Do you really want Bossman Joe Ferriero back?  Because if he was back, he probably would have sat John Currie down and told him that he had no choice but to tell Bill Pascrell, Jr. to retire and turn all of his former allies on him or there really will be a Bergen-Passaic civil war and within a very short time, a hand-picked Ferriero ally would be replacing Currie as County Chair and Currie would have folded on Pascrell like a cheap suit.  Is that the kind of small-d democracy that you would like in your large-D Democratic Party?  Because if Adubato and Norcross really cared about the congressional delegation and didn't cut a deal with Christie to get the legislative map that they wanted in return for the congressional map that he wanted, that is probably what you would have.

What people need to understand first and foremost is that regardless of how much Pascrell and Steve Rothman raise and spend over the next five months, it will have no bearing on how much is raised and spent in CD5 during the general election.  If Assemblywoman Connie Wagner decides that she wants to run against Garrett and follows the 2006 Linda Stender playbook, she will raise enough money to make herself appear viable to the DCCC, Emily's List, and every other national entity that has an interest in defeating Garrett in 2009 and they will raise and spend more than enough money to defeat him.  They will also raise and spend more than enough to help Congresswoman Wagner win re-election every two years.

But even if she doesn't do this and they don't do this, Pascrell and Rothman are still going to raise and spend or keep whatever money that they have.  It is not as if Pascrell were to announce his retirement tomorrow, the cash on hand that he and Rothman have would automatically be dumped into CD5.  They are going to do whatever they choose with their campaign cash and very little of it, if any, will find its way into CD5.  That is the way that it has always been and that is the way that it will continue to be whether we like it or not.

The only thing that a true Democratic leader (like Dick Codey) might be able to do is sit Pascrell down, make it clear to him how futile a primary election campaign against Rothman under the circumstances is going to be and that the odds of him defeating Rodney Frelinghuysen would be no worse and that it would be better for him to possibly go out in a blaze of glory than an act of futility.  He could also promise to help him by campaigning with him in every one of the towns that CD11 and LD27 have in common and others that they don't, but that's it and that is all that we should be looking for in a leader.

The reason that our political system is as screwed up as it is, is because it is driven so much more by political bosses, machines, and other carcinogenic elements of our "democratic" process that the desires, needs, and values of the people that our government is supposed to serve.  President Barack Obama, Senator Bob Menendez, our incumbent Democratic Congressmen, and even challengers like Wagner will be successful in 2012 if their efforts are driven by people who are committed to progressive ideals and values rather than people following the orders of the political bosses and machines.  Or maybe it will be a combination of both as it has been for most of the last decade.

The only difference might be that for once CD5 might have the demographic makeup for victory to be possible and the candidate who can make it probable.  I don't necessarily think that Rothman would have been that candidate, but I do think that Wagner can be.  Have faith, Adam.  I believe that our prospects in your district are better than they have ever been or will ever be.  And I believe that if Pascrell and his people take a step back and take a look at the big picture, they will seriously consider backing out of CD9 and running in CD11 instead.  If Ron Paul does what I think that he might do, it could create numerous opportunities for Democratic victories at not only the presidential level, but the congressional and senatorial levels as well that nobody would have imagined so if there is anything that our "leaders" should be doing is taking their cues from Howard Dean and implementing a 50-state/435-seat strategy and putting our best candidates forward wherever they might be.

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by: Bertin Lefkovic @ Tue Jan 03, 2012 at 05:01:32 AM UTC

Uh....not at all (0.00 / 0)

You misread my entire point.  This is about the opportunity to put some real coordinated effort into a Congressional race on the county, state and national level for the first time in many years.

My point is that it is in everyone's best interest, from Obama to Menendez to county level candidates to do so.

Not sure how you got from my diary to me wanting the days of Ferriero back, even mores given that you are a long time Blue Jersey member and must have read some of my many many BCDO bashing diaries.

Scott Garrett - on the wrong side of, well, everything.

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by: Adam L @ Tue Jan 03, 2012 at 12:11:41 PM UTC

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That being said.... (0.00 / 0)

I do agree with your last paragraph, although I don't know much about CD11.....

If not Wagner (or Carson???), then I see a very "you're on your own" approach brewing, which wouldnt be good at all....

Scott Garrett - on the wrong side of, well, everything.

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by: Adam L @ Tue Jan 03, 2012 at 12:14:21 PM UTC

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the Doblin quote (0.00 / 0)

I don't know why you thought that its message was in sync with everything else that you wrote, with which I wholeheartedly agree, but the Doblin quote made me think that he thought that the Democrats lacked a statewide boss with the clout to tell everybody else what to do.

I could be wrong, but with the likes of SML Loretta Weinberg leading the cheerleading effort, I feel quite confident at this moment that Connie Wagner is going to run against Garrett and she might be opposed by Terry Duffy in the Democratic primary, which could actually prove to be a good thing as it will engage Democratic voters and maybe even unaffiliateds earlier than usual, benefitting whomever the nominee might be.

I would hope that Lou Stellato keeps candidates like Dennis McNerny and Harry Carson out of the race as McNerny has far too much of an association with Ferriero, the old BCDO and its corruption and it is impossible for me to take someone like Carson seriously and if there is one thing that we definitely need in order to beat Garrett is a serious candidate who deserves to be taken seriously.  If Carson really wants to run, let him move down to CD3 and run against Carl Lewis for the right to take on Runyan.

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by: Bertin Lefkovic @ Tue Jan 03, 2012 at 21:34:19 PM UTC

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Sorry, couldn't access Blue Jersey from work (0.00 / 0)

And it was first day back.....

I agree that Connie will run, and hope she does.  I also agree that Duffy in a primary would be good, regardless of who wins as the general may finally force Garrett to run a campaign.  And.....I agree on McNerney not just because of the baggage but because he just lost a somewhat  winnable race at a lower level, and I think it wasn't close, right?

Carson is someone that I know little about where he stands, and the only benefit is if Connie doesn't run.  He has a name, a good reputation otherwise and can shed light on Garrett for people that otherwise wouldn't care or notice if it came from another politician.  I mean, if Runyan can run and Bunning could stay a Senator for so long, I don't have a problem with an athlete on "our  side".

My concerns, and why I put the Doblin quote in is that I am amazed that (it seems like) nobody got together to discuss what would happen if this map was chosen.  No planning on who would run where, etc (and again, this includes the DCCC, Menendez and Bergen folks song with Rothman, Pascrell and Stellato).  How could this turn out to be the cluster fuck it has and nobody even considered the impact on races from county races all the way up through the Presidential.

It didn't really need to be a heavy hand, but someone somewhere to take the lead and coordinate a contingency plan that benefits as many people (not just politicians) and doesn't look haphazard....

Scott Garrett - on the wrong side of, well, everything.

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by: Adam L @ Wed Jan 04, 2012 at 12:03:44 PM UTC

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