The Coming Battle for the 5th CD

I'd prefer to see... (4.00 / 1)

...Steve Rothman run in CD9 and Assemblywoman Connie Wagner run in CD5.  Yes, Rothman could beat Garrett next year, but he has a much better chance of winning in the district that contains most of the constituents that he has had for the last decade.  He graduated from Tenafly High School and was mayor of Englewood before he was elected to Congress and only recently moved to Fair Lawn.  

I don't know the reason for this move.  I know that I would prefer to live in Englewood than Fair Lawn, but he chose to move for whatever reason, but he should not feel compelled to stay there if it is not in his best interest.

I believe that if Rothman doesn't announce that he is moving back to Englewood and running in CD9 soon, someone else from Bergen County will announce that he/she is running against Bill Pascrell in the Democratic primary in 2012.  The district is a Bergencentric district and even if Lou Stellato wanted to give Pascrell the line, he is not Joe Ferriero and will face tremendous pressure to support a Bergen-based candidate.

With all due respect to my former employer, he is nearing the end of his political career and is not even on the best of terms with his own County Chair, John Currie, who could see this as an opportunity to cut the puppeteer's strings once and for all.  The only reason that he wouldn't is if he believes that Pascrell will drive downticket turnout in the three most important Democratic towns in Passaic County better than a Bergen-based congressional candidate.

Even if that is enough to retain Currie's support, the makeup of the district still makes Pascrell vulnerable to a primary challenger, whether the challenger's name is Rothman or not.  So based on my belief that Pascrell will be challenged by somebody, I would prefer that somebody to be named Rothman.

I also like the idea of Wagner taking on Scott Garrett, because the amount of her legislative district, LD38, that is in CD5 is no less significant than the amount of Rothman's former district that is now in CD5.  While Rothman starts with more of a war chest than Wagner, I think that the DCCC would be just as engaged in her candidacy as Rothman's and she could bridge the financial gap with money from organizations like Emily's List.

The last two Congresswomen from NJ have been Republicans.  I believe that Wagner could give us the Democratic Congresswoman for whom we have been waiting far too long and I believe that without another competitive congressional race in the entire state, she more than Rothman could inspire people throughout the state who share my desire to elect a Democratic Congresswoman to engage this race with both their dollars and their shoe leather.

If for some reason she decides that she does not want to run, my second choice to take on Garrett would be Assemblyman-elect Tim Eustace.  Yes, there are undoubtably some risks involved in running someone for Congress who has just been elected to their first term in the Assembly, but with great risks come great rewards.  First and foremost amongst these rewards is the opportunity to provide the House of Representatives with an openly gay Congressman at the same time that its first openly gay Congressman, Barney Frank, is retiring, which would provide this race with not only statewide attention, but also national attention, particularly because he will be facing one of the most, if not the most far-right-wing batshitcrazy teabagging wingnut Congressman in the country.  With all due respect to Ed Potosnak, the new CD7 is simply not winnable and as bad as Leonard Lance has been, I think that we can all agree that he is not as bad as Garrett and never will be as bad as Garrett.

A Garrett-Rothman race would undoubtably be a hard-fought campaign, but it will not be significantly more noteworthy than any other matchup pitting two white, male incumbents who have been redistricted into the same district.  A Garrett-Wagner or Garrett-Eustace race will be an epic battle between icons of good and evil, light and dark, and yesterday and tomorrow.

When push comes to shove, I believe that the numbers of dollars and the numbers of volunteer hours that will be contributed to a Wagner for Congress or Eustace for Congress campaign will far eclipse anything that comes into the district for a Rothman for Congress campaign.

Finally, one additional benefit of a Wagner or Eustace victory over Garrett, aside from vanquishing the most hated Republican in our state, is that when one of them goes to Washington, their Assembly seat would have to be filled in a special election and while there would be no guarantee that Blue Jersey's favorite resident of LD38, Hawthorne Municipal Chairman Jeff Gardner, would be selected as the replacement, he would have as good a shot at the seat as anybody.

In the end, Rothman is going to do what he is going to do and other decisions will most likely be made after his (unless someone thinks that if they make a move before him, it will influence what he decides), but my hope is that he decides to run in CD9 and Wagner decides to run in CD5.

---

by: Bertin Lefkovic @ Tue Dec 27, 2011 at 03:33:11 AM UTC

Great insight, Bertin. (0.00 / 0)

Thanks for your thoughts.  As it now appears Rothman is running in 9 and not 5.  

I believe that it's going to take in excess of $2.0 million for a Democrat to win in the 5th and I don't know if either Wagner or Eustace can raise that kind of money.  From a purely selfish perspective I hate the idea that Garrett is in Washington representing me and I viewed Rothman with his record and war chest as the best shot we've ever had to rid ourselves of a man who thinks that the people who fueled the fire for our economic woes need not be held accountable, or that rescue workers from 9/11 don't deserve health coverage.

Whomever our candidates turns out to be ,in addition to winning Bergen by 5 to7 points, he or she is going to have to get 45% of the vote in Warren and Somerset and close to that in Passaic.  It's going to be a full time job running for that seat and we need someone who can truly commit their time to such a race.

---

by: War Horse @ Tue Dec 27, 2011 at 04:47:20 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I believe... (0.00 / 0)

...that Connie Wagner or Tim Eustace can do it, but more than them, I believe that the national LGBT, progressive, and/or women's organizations that can drive the dollars and the shoe leather can do it in CD5.  The district is more competitive than it used to be and with one of these candidates, we can make the Republicans wish that Farmer had chosen the Republican map.

---

by: Bertin Lefkovic @ Tue Dec 27, 2011 at 04:56:24 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I hope you're right and... (0.00 / 0)

I'm ready to get to work.

---

by: War Horse @ Tue Dec 27, 2011 at 05:00:00 AM UTC

[ Parent ]