Daily Kos Elections on NJ Congressional Redistricting

Rush Holt & Trenton (0.00 / 0)

The DK article says that Rush Holt added Trenon.  I thought that he always had Trenton.  It is hard to imagine how his district could have been as safe as it was over the last decade without it.  Now it is even more safe with the addition of Plainfield and the mecca of progressivism where I live, Dunellen.  I always liked being represented by Frank Pallone, but I am sure that I will be just as happy with Holt as my Congressman.

---

by: Bertin Lefkovic @ Mon Dec 26, 2011 at 16:10:48 PM UTC

Just looked at Dave's Redistricting App (0.00 / 0)

Holt had most of Trenton, but Smith did have a small part of it, which was added to Smith's district through the redistricting process.

---

by: Bertin Lefkovic @ Mon Dec 26, 2011 at 16:17:02 PM UTC

A Double Whammy (0.00 / 0)

In the North the Republican map certainly makes it easier for one Democratic congressman to lose a seat by either pitting Rothman (D) against Garrett (R) in the new much more Republican-friendly 5th District or pitting Rothman (D) against Pascrell (D) in the new 9th district where one Democratic congressman would have to lose.  The "fair fight" proposed by the Democrats in their map would have been fairer. However, the decider in this case was a Republican, which makes you wonder why Democrats went along with Dean Farmer, a known Republican, to cast the 13th vote, as opposed to a more non-partisan individual.  

"The work goes on, the cause endures, the hope still lives, and the dream shall never die." - Sen. Ted Kennedy

---

by: Bill Orr @ Mon Dec 26, 2011 at 16:41:18 PM UTC

Blame Norcross (0.00 / 1)

Norcross put his lackey, Joe Roberts, in charge of the Democratic team and I am willing to bet that he was the one who advocated for the Cherry Hill poison pill that Farmer refused to swallow.

Aside from the ludicrous demand that keeps one Camden County town out of an otherwise Camden County-based district (CD1), the Democratic map is fairer in every possible way.  However, Roberts knew that keeping Cherry Hill in CD3 would be enough to get Farmer to choose the Republican map.

As a result, Andrews gets an even safer district than he already had, while Democrats get to say that they tried to make CD3 more competitive, but the truth is that the Republican map is the map that most Democrats (except Pascrell and Rothman) preferred.

---

by: Bertin Lefkovic @ Mon Dec 26, 2011 at 17:03:58 PM UTC

Rubbish (4.00 / 1)

You're accusing the Democratic commissioners of sandbagging in the redistricting process. So far, you've offered no evidence supporting this serious allegation. Moreover, your allegations are implausible; if Norcross wanted to maximize his influence, why would he choose a map that effectively limits the number of South Jersey Democrats in Congress to one, at least until Frank LoBiondo retires?

Show us your evidence or stop peddling this silly conspiracy theory.

---

by: Scott Weingart @ Mon Dec 26, 2011 at 23:37:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

no evidence necessary (0.00 / 0)

We infer from what we know.

Ever since I got involved in NJ politics over a decade ago, I have been told by numerous insiders that the political establishment in the state, both Democrats and Republicans, do not care about the federal government, because they do not provide the plethora of contracts and patronage jobs that fuel their political fiefdoms.

Congressional and senatorial elections are the bread and circases that the political machines use as carrots and sticks to maintain the loyalty of hyperambitious electeds and operatives.  The exception is when you have a Governor like ours who may or may not have Presidential ambitions and may want to leave his mark on the national scene.

If that is the case, it is very possible that he and his favorite backroom buddies, George Norcross and Steve Adubato, cooked up a scheme whereby the Democrats would get the legislative map that they wanted while the Republicans would get the congressional map that they wanted.

Aside from 2008 and 2010 when John Adler ran and won and then ran and lost, nobody associated with the Norcross machine ever showed the slightest interest in CD3 and if they truly wanted to have two competitive seats instead of one safe D seat and one safe R seat, they would have put more than just Cherry Hill in the district ten years ago.  They would have put Collingswood and a few other Democratic towns in the district as well.

Otherwise, it makes no sense to pull one town out of an entire county just to make a safe R district slightly less safe.  My guess is that the only reason that it was even put there in the first place was on the off chance that John Adler or Louis Greenwald decided that they wanted to take a shot at the seat.  

Otherwise, the Norcross machine's only priority is protecting Rob Andrews.  It is also possible that they sandbagged Rothman to eliminate him as a senatorial contender if/when Frank Lautenberg retires.

Do I know for a fact that any of these possibilities are realities?  Of course not.  But I believe that I and others here know enough about how the Norcross machine operates to make educated guesses like this.  If you want to fool yourself into believing that at their core, all Democrats are focused solely on the best interests of Democratic constituencies, issues, and values, that is your business, but I don't think that anyone else here is naive enough to believe that.

That said, this theory is limited to Joe Roberts and anyone else on the commission with links to the Norcross machine.  I believe that anyone else on the commission was there to do the best job that they could under the circumstances.

---

by: Bertin Lefkovic @ Tue Dec 27, 2011 at 02:36:21 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

More rubbish (4.00 / 1)

I don't doubt that party bosses care more about legislative seats than Congressional seats. But it takes a Grand Canyon-sized leap to get from that to this:

If that is the case, it is very possible that he and his favorite backroom buddies, George Norcross and Steve Adubato, cooked up a scheme whereby the Democrats would get the legislative map that they wanted while the Republicans would get the congressional map that they wanted.

I'm sorry, but this is just asinine. How would Norcross and Adubato rig a process that they don't control? Remember, Democrats can't do redistricting themselves in this state. For your conspiracy theory to make any sense, either Alan Rosenthal or NJ Republicans would have to be in on the fix. Why would they agree to a scheme which all but kills their chances to win the legislature in the next decade?

Your guesses about why NJ-03 contains Cherry Hill are all wrong. Cherry Hill has been in NJ-03 since at least the 1980s. And here's a more plausible explanation for why more Camden County towns weren't added to NJ-03 ten years ago: Republican Jim Saxton didn't want them, so the map, which was a compromise between Republicans and Democrats in Congress, didn't include them.

Nobody believes that people "with links to the Norcross machine" are "focused solely on the best interests of Democratic constituencies, issues, and values." But only tinfoil-hat-wearing conspiracy theorists would think that those people don't care at all about Democratic constituencies, interests, and values.

---

by: Scott Weingart @ Tue Dec 27, 2011 at 03:57:09 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Buy stock in Reynolds Wrap (0.00 / 0)

Christie, Adubato, and Norcross control directly or indirectly who sits on the LRC, the CRC as well as the 13th member of these commissions.  I believe that they have made backroom deals that elected Christie Governor and passed his agenda.

If Christie can do what he wants with a Democratic Assembly and Senate, why wouldn't he leverage that further to impact the makeup of NJ's congressional delegation and even take credit for it whenever he is on the national stage?

The Norcross machine has not been as powerful as it currently is since the 80s.  It was powerful before I got involved in NJ politics, but I am not sure how powerful it was for how long before then.  My earliest memory of it was the Andrews gubernatorial campaign in 1997.  As far as redistricting is concerned, if the Democrats and Republicans were making a compromise map, they could have just as easily left Cherry Hill out of CD3 at Saxton's insistence and made CD1 even safer for Andrews.  The only reason that they left it there was for Adler or Greenwald.  Sadly, Adler is no longer with us and now that Greenwald is Assembly Majority Leader, he clearly has positions like Assembly Speaker or Governor on his mind, so there was no longer any need for the Norcross machine to keep Cherry Hill in CD3.

That said, they wouldn't want to look like they were giving up on CD3, so keeping it in their map serves two purposes.  It maintains the facade that they care about CD3 and it gives Farmer a reason, as ridiculous a reason as it might have been, for choosing the Republican map, despite the fact that it does not create the "fair fight" in CD5 that was previously promised.

You can believe what you want to believe, Scott, and I will do the same.  You can also call my theory what you will, but if nothing else, I believe that it is plausible based on everything that we have experienced over the last decade or so.

---

by: Bertin Lefkovic @ Tue Dec 27, 2011 at 04:24:31 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm leaning towards Bert's take on this one. (0.00 / 0)

One Vote.  Yours.  It really does matter.

---

by: carolh @ Tue Dec 27, 2011 at 14:10:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

"Jon Runyan will do many of the same things Chris did..." (0.00 / 0)

"Brick residents will no longer call Rep. Christopher H. Smith their congressman after the 2012 election cycle.

For the 2012 election cycle, Brick will transition from New Jersey's fourth congressional district to the third, following the decision last week of a bipartisan committee tasked with redrawing New Jersey's congressional maps. That means Jon Runyan, a freshman Republican congressman whose district currently includes Toms River and the majority of Ocean County's municipalities, will represent Brick as well.

Brick, whose residents traditionally vote Republican in congressional elections, will reportedly solidify Runyan's chances of re-election, especially after Democrat-leaning Cherry Hill - a large suburban community like Brick - was moved out of the district."

http://brick.patch.com/article...

As scarce as truth is, the supply has always been in excess of the demand.

---

by: Jersey Shore John @ Wed Dec 28, 2011 at 02:04:08 AM UTC

Jersey Shore John (0.00 / 0)

Thanks for that link.

It's not a particularly snappy signature, but here's what I think we need in the next NJ Democratic State Chair.  

---

by: Rosi Efthim @ Wed Dec 28, 2011 at 14:06:51 PM UTC

[ Parent ]