New Jersey's new Congressional maps, live from Trenton. OPEN THREAD

South Jersey (0.00 / 0)

The Democrats got screwed in the redistricting battle, esp down south.  The new 3rd district is a bloodbath. Perhaps a little more focus on (gasp) white sub-urbanites might finally be in order?

activist for hire.

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by: Jay Lassiter @ Fri Dec 23, 2011 at 15:54:01 PM UTC

Looks like we got butchered in Monmouth County Too (0.00 / 0)

I expected to lose Holt as my rep and we did, I just can't figure out whether I'm Smith or Pallone now.

And there really is no NJ Shore district left either. Monmouth aand Ocean are in 3 different CDs and CD2 covers a huge swath of the southern interior.

So much of NJ Democratic politics is dominated by Bergen/Essex/Hudson intrigue.  I really hope we can move away from that model over the next decade.

Can you imagine what combining 12 into all (or almost all) of Mercer and Middlesex counties could do for the state (and the Democratic party?)

You'd have Princeton and Rutgers in the same district along with a host of NJ's most intense knowledge-based businesses. A sliver of Somerset, Hunterdon and maybe a piece of Monmouth would solidify that hypothetical district as one of the smartest CDs in the country, with Rep. Holt as the congressman.

That's the future, but once again we seem to be looking backwards rather than forwards.  

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by: JackHarris @ Fri Dec 23, 2011 at 16:11:31 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I can't figure out if I am in Smith or Pallone's now (0.00 / 0)

I would obviously like to stay in Pallone's district.  I like the guy and want him to continue to represent me.

The map is very unclear with the coastal towns in Monmouth County down to Sea Girt.

http://outspokenliberal.blogsp...

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by: tabbycat31 @ Fri Dec 30, 2011 at 20:05:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Where... (0.00 / 0)

...do you live?

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by: Bertin Lefkovic @ Fri Dec 30, 2011 at 20:27:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

What did you expect? (2.00 / 1)

I seriously doubt that the Democratic map could have made the 3rd more competitive without taking Democratic towns out of the 1st, which Joe Roberts/George Norcross was never going to allow.

I am shocked that Farmer picked the Republican map insofar as it is probably not significantly different from the map that they submitted, which overtly created a district that would force Pascrell and Rothman to face one another.  It is hard to tell, but it looks like Pascrell's new district has Englewood, Hackensack, and Teaneck in it, which I think is going to require Rothman, who lived in Englewood when he was first elected to Congress to seriously consider running against Pascrell instead of Garrett.

When I was playing with the map, I assumed that Pascrell's district would take the working class towns of South Bergen, but never envisioned that it would go as deep into the heart of Bergen, especially towns with large Jewish populations like Englewood and Teaneck.  

It will be interesting to see what the total population breakdowns are between the Bergen and Passaic portions of this district, because they look very close to me.  I think that when push comes to shove, we are more likely to see Pascrell-Rothman than Garrett-Rothman.

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by: Bertin Lefkovic @ Fri Dec 23, 2011 at 16:19:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think he keeps Teaneck (0.00 / 0)

That's the impression I get from this article:

http://www.politickernj.com/53...

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by: 12mileseastofTrenton @ Fri Dec 23, 2011 at 16:34:56 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yes (0.00 / 0)

Most of Teaneck anyway and all of Hackensack, but since he lived in Englewood when he was first elected to Congress, if I were him, I would take on Pascrell instead of Garrett.

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by: Bertin Lefkovic @ Fri Dec 23, 2011 at 17:16:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think he loses Hackensack (0.00 / 0)

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by: 12mileseastofTrenton @ Fri Dec 23, 2011 at 18:12:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I stand corrected (0.00 / 0)

He keeps Hackensack.

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by: 12mileseastofTrenton @ Fri Dec 23, 2011 at 18:51:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I hope you don't honestly believe this... (3.50 / 2)

I seriously doubt that the Democratic map could have made the 3rd more competitive without taking Democratic towns out of the 1st, which Joe Roberts/George Norcross was never going to allow.

...because it makes absolutely no sense.

Even if RobertsNorcross is an Evil Party Boss, he isn't a fool. Why would he want to pack all South Jersey Democrats into a single district? Wouldn't he rather have two Congressmen, rather than one? There are certainly enough Democrats in South Jersey to support two Democratic districts.

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by: Scott Weingart @ Fri Dec 23, 2011 at 18:03:19 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I do honestly believe this (0.00 / 0)

There are not enough Democrats in South Jersey to make two safe D districts.  Just because Jeff Van Drew might be able to beat LoBiondo or win the 2nd when he retires doesn't make that district Democratic by any stretch of the imagination.

George Norcross made it possible for Rob Andrews to take on Frank Lautenberg in 2008 and then still run for re-election to his House seat in the fall by allowing Andrews' wife to be a placeholder.  How many ambitious South Jersey pols had to be held back in order for this switcheroo to occur?  There is no way that this happens without Norcross.

And there is no way that Norcross allows CD1 to become less safe, just so CD2 or CD3 could become more safe.  It will never happen.  I would not be surprised if Norcross/Roberts conspired with the Republicans so that their map would win.  Keeping Cherry Hill in CD3 was the poison pill that Farmer would not swallow.  As it turns out, the Republican map is even better for Andrews than the Democratic map.

Coincidence?  I think not.

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by: Bertin Lefkovic @ Mon Dec 26, 2011 at 14:51:26 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Looks like they sunk a lot of Democratic votes (3.00 / 1)

into Andrews' and Holt's districts in order to make Runyan and Lance safe.  

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by: 12mileseastofTrenton @ Fri Dec 23, 2011 at 16:05:21 PM UTC

lobiondo is mine perhaps? (0.00 / 0)

no combining the 2nd with anyone elses?  good
http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

"the black sheep can wear the golden fleece and hold a winning hand" Tim Hardin

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by: gary stein @ Fri Dec 23, 2011 at 16:09:25 PM UTC

Am I reading this right? (0.00 / 0)

Did they move Lambertville into the 7th?

Maybe the 7th isn't so safe for Lance after all??

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by: the pollster @ Fri Dec 23, 2011 at 16:16:40 PM UTC

Can't tell whether it's in 7 or 12 (0.00 / 0)

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by: 12mileseastofTrenton @ Fri Dec 23, 2011 at 16:53:39 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Lambertville is in 7th (0.00 / 0)

From checking my the borough borders and comparing it to the district map. Being married to a geographer helps sometimes.

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by: Alex @ Fri Dec 23, 2011 at 17:05:57 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Closeups (0.00 / 0)

I just posted the map in 3 sections - north, central, south - close-up enough that you should be able to pick out your town and see where you are, no matter what part of the state:

Find Your Town - the New Congressional Redistricting Map

It's not a particularly snappy signature, but here's what I think we need in the next NJ Democratic State Chair.  

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by: Rosi Efthim @ Fri Dec 23, 2011 at 16:18:37 PM UTC

Thanks (0.00 / 0)

My town is so small, I still can't tell! :)

But I think I'm Pallone based on the V out of Long Branch. I figured both parties would put Eatontown into CD6 and probably just throw us in with them as well since we're very small and basically a swing town that slightly leans R.  

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by: JackHarris @ Fri Dec 23, 2011 at 16:29:40 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

JackHarris (0.00 / 0)

Is you town Eatontown? Or is it a town nearby Eatontown?

It's not a particularly snappy signature, but here's what I think we need in the next NJ Democratic State Chair.  

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by: Rosi Efthim @ Fri Dec 23, 2011 at 17:25:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Right near Eatontown (0.00 / 0)

East, heading towards the beach....

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by: JackHarris @ Fri Dec 23, 2011 at 17:36:36 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

JackHarris (0.00 / 0)

What's the name of your town?

It's not a particularly snappy signature, but here's what I think we need in the next NJ Democratic State Chair.  

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by: Rosi Efthim @ Fri Dec 23, 2011 at 19:11:07 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

We're in CD6 Now (0.00 / 0)

Got it from the OLS data.

Will miss having Holt as my congressman and being able to have a My Congressman Is a Rocket Scientist bumper sticker, but Pallone is probably a better fit for our town.  

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by: JackHarris @ Fri Dec 23, 2011 at 19:43:39 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Farmer says it could have been worse for the Dems (0.00 / 0)

The map that I am prepared to support to day is, in every measure, an improvement over the current map," Farmer said.

Farmer said he focused on the two districts most affected by the population shift - aside from the minority-majority protected District 10. Districts 8 and 9, where U.S. Reps. Bill Pascrell (D- Paterson) and Steve Rothman (D-Fair Lawn) reside, were numbers two and three in population lost.

"This would have meant the loss of Democratic seat," he said, which he would have been fine with regardless of party. "*The Democrats changed my mind*," convincing him to include U.S. Rep. Scott Garrett (R-Wantage) in a combined district.

http://www.politickernj.com/53...

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by: 12mileseastofTrenton @ Fri Dec 23, 2011 at 16:36:51 PM UTC

Patrick Murray doesn't think 5 is much of a match (0.00 / 0)

and that 3 is pretty much a lost cause.

http://www.politickernj.com/53...

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by: 12mileseastofTrenton @ Fri Dec 23, 2011 at 17:20:05 PM UTC

Statement from Rep. Bill Pascrell (0.00 / 0)

I look forward to continuing to represent the towns in Passaic County I have represented for the past 15 years.  The district I represent now travels across the Passaic River into Bergen County and south into Hudson County.  It continues to be a diverse one, composed of high concentrations of working families.  The economic composition of the new district is fairly consistent between the old and new parts of the district.  I am eager to begin meeting the residents in the new district and learn about their issues and priorities.  But Bergen and Hudson Counties are not new to me, as I have many ties to the region.  For example, I served as a public school teacher in Bergen County for more than a decade, and I represented part of the county when I served in the state legislature.  I am confident that many of my priorities in the Congress, including quality health care, public safety funding, economic development, transportation investments, and completing environmental cleanups, will translate easily into this new district.  There are important projects that need federal attention and I am committed to bringing the full resources of my office to achieving results.

I have been proud to represent the suburban Passaic and Essex County towns in the Eighth District for the past 15 years.  I am eternally grateful for the trust they have put in me during that time.  Local residents know that my office will always be there for them. We will always be happy to provide our professional casework assistance, even after the new lines go into effect."

It's not a particularly snappy signature, but here's what I think we need in the next NJ Democratic State Chair.  

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by: Rosi Efthim @ Fri Dec 23, 2011 at 21:15:14 PM UTC

Rothman announcement ... (0.00 / 0)

... apparently coming soon.

Per nj.com, Rothman: "considering all my options" and planning to make an announcement about his own next step soon. That's with speculation he may primary Pascrell in the district Pascrell now finds himself in, one that contains Englewood, where Rothman no longer lives but once was mayor.

It's not a particularly snappy signature, but here's what I think we need in the next NJ Democratic State Chair.  

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by: Rosi Efthim @ Fri Dec 23, 2011 at 21:32:32 PM UTC