Dems submit map that would pit Steve Rothman against Scott Garrett

Population drop? What Population drop? (4.00 / 1)

2000 Census: 8,414,350

2010 Census: 8,791,894

377,544 more people.

---

by: huntsu @ Thu Dec 22, 2011 at 15:35:04 PM UTC

Yeah (4.00 / 1)

I didn't say that well. Other states in the West and South increased population, we didn't keep pace with that. Not a population drop statewide.

In my defense, I'm still recovering from a crazy birthday in the rain in NYC. And huntsu's point is correct.

It's not a particularly snappy signature, but here's what I think we need in the next NJ Democratic State Chair.  

---

by: Rosi Efthim @ Thu Dec 22, 2011 at 15:55:02 PM UTC

Garrett for Senate?! (0.00 / 0)

Reading the comments in PolitickerNJ ever since it was first mentioned that Garrett could find himself in a "fair fight" district, I think that there is sufficient anger amongst the teabagging wingnuts statewide to convince Garrett that his chances against Joe Kyrillos in a Republican primary election and Bob Menendez in a general election would be no worse than they would be against a Bergen-based primary challenger and Steve Rothman, even in a Bergen-centric district that will lean Republican.

The big question mark will be whether or not the teabagging wingnuts will be able to convince Anna Little to drop out of the race and take on Frank Pallone instead.  I predict that they will succeed in doing this by arguing that Little would be able to run against Frank Lautenberg in 2014 in a much lower turnout election cycle and have a much better chance of winning a primary election with the support of a united TPM that will be appreciative of her selflessness in stepping aside for Garrett.

---

by: Bertin Lefkovic @ Thu Dec 22, 2011 at 18:45:33 PM UTC

Dean John Farmer (0.00 / 0)

Here's my interview with Dean John Farmer at the start of the process. It's rare for a government panel to come in ahead of schedule, but he did it.

I can't wait for the Tea Party to say that Garrett is too liberal for them. It will happen.

Blog: http://www.deciminyan.org

---

by: deciminyan @ Thu Dec 22, 2011 at 18:56:52 PM UTC

teabagging wingnuts are pissed (0.00 / 0)

If you go by the comments in PNJ, they want the GOP's establishment's head on a stick for putting their standard bearer at risk.  I would not assume that the Garrett-Rothman matchup is going to happen as this district is going to lose all of Warren County and a significant percentage of Sussex County as well, creating a situation where Garrett is going to have an even harder time winning a GOP primary against a Bergen-based primary challenger.

The only way that I see Garrett getting the party line in Bergen, which he will need to have a chance of winning the primary election, is if he can make a credible enough threat to run for re-election on the Libertarian Party line, which could have Gary Johnson or Ron Paul as its Presidential standard-bearer.  He could also threaten to run for Senate against Joe Kyrillos, which could lead to Christie putting pressure on the BCRO to give Garrett the line.

Another, albeit less likely, possibility is that Garrett could become Johnson's or Paul's running mate on the Libertarian line, making it even harder for Romney and whomever his running mate might be to be able to compete here in NJ.

---

by: Bertin Lefkovic @ Thu Dec 22, 2011 at 20:17:07 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Could it be? Could it really possibly happen? (0.00 / 0)

Could I get the most amazing thing I have wanted for Christmas for the past oh (how long has Scott Garrett been in Congress?)  that many years?  Could I actually get the Congressman who really represents me??  Really truly?  Where I won't be in such a gerrymandered district that includes all the rural farmland and forest of the north?  OMG a real actual competitive Congress race? So unbelievable I dared not hope for years.  Please oh pretty please?  I am so sick of suffering from Congressman envy.  To not only get rid of Garrett but to actually possibly get Rothman as a Congressman instead?  Wow.  This could be the best Christmas present.  EVER.

One Vote.  Yours.  It really does matter.

---

by: carolh @ Fri Dec 23, 2011 at 01:07:37 AM UTC

be careful what you wish for (0.00 / 0)

When the final map is announced, your district will most likely be billed as a "fair fight" district that will match Garrett against Rothman, but I am willing to bet that when you get your sample ballot in November 2012, you will not see both of their names on it.

A lot will depend on how much of Scott Garrett's Sussex County remains in the district.  It is a near certainty that Warren County will not be in the district and it is possible that as much as half to two-thirds of Sussex County could be pulled out of it and added to Frelinghuysen's and/or Lance's districts.

If this happens, this district will become a very Bergen-centric district and unless Garrett is successful at scaring Chris Christie, Joe Kyrillos, and any other major player in the State Republican party who will listen to him to place an inordinate amount of pressure on the Bergen County Republicans, they will most likely give the line to a Bergen County Republican, who has a better chance of beating Steve Rothman than the batshitcrazy teabagging wingnut, Garrett.

The upside of this scenario is that it will most likely end Scott Garrett's political career, but the downside of it is that Rothman will have a tougher time winning re-election than if he had to face Garrett.

Another scenario is that the district includes all or most of Sussex County, making it less Bergen-centric, and more likely that Garrett is the Republican nominee.  However, this district would be much harder for Rothman to win.  It would be even harder for him than if he has to run against a Bergen Republican in a Bergen-centric district.

If this happens, Rothman could decide to move to a South Bergen town and run against Bill Pascrell, Jr. in the Democratic primary in that district.  Another, less likely scenario is that he runs against Bob Menendez in a statewide Democratic primary election, figuring that his odds of winning either primary are roughly the same, so he might as well go after the bigger prize.

The scenario I am rooting for is that the district is a Bergen-centric district, the Bergen Republicans dump Garrett for one of their own, and Garrett responds by not running in the primary election and instead running for re-election in the district as a Libertarian Party candidate.  This scenario would be more plausible if the Libertarians are able to get Ron Paul to run for President on their line.

I could also see Garrett deciding to run for the Senate against Kyrillos in the Republican primary election instead of running for re-election to his Congressional seat or running for the Senate against Kyrillos and Menendez as the Libertarian candidate in the general election.  A final and least likely, but not impossible possibility could be that Garrett is picked to be Paul's Vice-President on the Libertarian ticket.  I would imagine that this would be Murray Sabrin's scenario of choice.

Anything is possible, but I am still willing to bet that Garrett v. Rothman does not happen, for good or ill.  Stay tuned.

---

by: Bertin Lefkovic @ Fri Dec 23, 2011 at 03:00:59 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

If Scott Garrett is no longer my Congressman (0.00 / 0)

then excuse me but what is the downside??  I am sick of being the sacrificial voter who has to have Garrett as my gerrymandered Congressman just so Rothman can skate to victory every time.  What in the world is wrong with a fair fight? Aren't we FOR democracy here? Don't you think Rothman would win in a fair fight?  I do.  Especially after the Republican Tea Party conservative nutjobs have let the American public in on what their REAL goals are.  There are MANY Republicans in my district who were perfectly happy with a moderate Marge Roukema for years and have also suffered under Garrett.   By being a tiny slice of Bergen lumped in with the entire rural forested north my vote was so diluted as to be worthless.  Perhaps not anymore.

One Vote.  Yours.  It really does matter.

---

by: carolh @ Fri Dec 23, 2011 at 16:50:12 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

you win (0.00 / 0)

It looks like you've got Pascrell, although Rothman could move back to Englewood, where he lived when he was first elected to Congress, and run against Pascrell instead of Garrett.  That's what I would do.

---

by: Bertin Lefkovic @ Fri Dec 23, 2011 at 17:23:03 PM UTC

[ Parent ]