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The Morning After: Election 2011 at Eagleton

by: Rosi Efthim

Wed Nov 09, 2011 at 08:09:44 PM EST



Eagleton


Every year, while the headrush is still fresh, the Eagleton Institute of Politics at Rutgers hosts a gathering to pick apart election results and find meaning in it all. They call it The Morning After - NJ Legislative Elections: Results and Implications. You could probably fill an auditorium with still charged-up D's and R's, but Eagleton convenes this discussion in a beautiful room that only seats about 70 people. That makes it more discussion than presentation. And that makes it fun.

This morning's players were AP's Angela Delli Santi, Assemblywoman Joan Quigley, Record columnist Charlie Stile and former NJ GOP chair (now lobbyist) Tom Wilson. Eagleton's John Weingart moderated.

The audience was mostly players of various kinds; some of the best questions and observations came from Eagleton students. Everything was on the table. Below the fold, some vignettes, including Chris Christie's post-election black eye, leadership tension between Barbara Buono and Loretta Weinberg, who wears a suit and tie and why it matters, and why Dick Codey's having a really good day today:  

Rosi Efthim :: The Morning After: Election 2011 at Eagleton
This is all from my notes, as accurate as my scribbling can make it. Here's audio.

Sizing it up ...

Charlie Stile: The election wasn't so much a referendum on Christie, more on the GOP's failure to seize on the opportunities (for wins) it did have.

Tom Wilson, on the question of whether new stars emerged last night, Wilson named only one: Dick Codey, who has struggled inside his own party, sometimes being shot down by "friendly fire" who nevertheless "shrewdly and deftly" went into Morris County (in his reconfigured district) and did very well" "The old fox is still alive. And circling the hen house."

Stile: Some legislators went from simply being incumbents to having that extra layer of calcium on them. Whelan. Gordon. Van Drew. Now, they're going to be harder to beat.

Joan Quigley said this election disempowered public worker unions: "Democrats were threatened (by the unions), 'We'll stay home!'. But frankly I don't know if they did or didn't. Democrats aren't going to be scared of them anymore. And you won't see the same kind of spunk you saw this year in some legislators. The people who will end up in leadership are not street fighters."

Did Christie get a 'black eye' in yesterday's election?

Stile: He did put himself into races. And with all those opportunities Republicans have, he does have a little bit of a black eye.
Delli Santi: He feels it, too. He had a press conference today in Sussex County. That's the farthest he could possibly get from Trenton. If things had gone better for him, that would have been in front of the State House.

As to what happens next ...

Quigley: It's your team against my team now.
Wilson: And sometimes you won't know which is which.

On NJTV's election coverage ...

Quigley: Well, it was better than their daily news broadcast ... but that wouldn't be difficult. There was a lot of in-studio stuff, and there was a lot of people saying the same things over and over. Not much talking to candidates. And there are a lot of people who could do it better - amateur reporters, journalism students, cable TV reporters who would do it for the pleasure of doing it.
Wilson: I watched it for about 15 minutes. That ought to tell you what I thought.
Delli Santi: In the newsroom, we just turned down the sound.

On leadership ...

Quigley: There will be a changeover from Cryan to Greenwald and Wisniewski. These are the types of guys you see in a suit and tie. Cryan by contrast became more and more angry, and (not everybody) could tolerate that.
Stile: There's tension over the (Senate) Majority Leader position. There's going to be some power sharing. And it sets up a paradox. It's murky. (Barbara Buono) has staked this position as the liberal firebrand counterweight to Christie collaborationists. She's made pretty clear she's angling for governor. This weakens her ability to run, people say. But I don't see that position. I've seen legislators think they have immense power, but most people don't really know who they are. You could almost argue she's in a better position now because she doesn't have that (baggage) of having to be that. She does, however lose fundraising ability, if she doesn't have Majority Leader.
Quigley: I think a power-sharing arrangement between Barbara and Loretta would make the Real Housewives of ... Anywhere look peaceful.

On the Princeton vote to merge ...

Sue Nemeth (re-elected last night, and a strong proponent of consolidation, explaining how it will work): There will be a 1-year transition, most of the details are already planned out. All 12 members, of both governing bodies, will stand for election again this year. And we'll go from 12 down to 7. It will be an interesting primary. Stuff that isn't worked out? Well, we'll have two kinds of police uniforms that don't match. But that can wait.

Should students care about this election?

Wilson: We talk to people we think are listening. We also tend to govern for the ones who are listening. The way we can tell that you're listening is whether you vote. Contrast seniors to students. They vote and their needs are taken seriously. You can continue to hang out and Occupy whatever you want. You have a huge voting block and you choose not to use it.

On what happens in 2013:

Wilson: Where the Democrats are now, is like what happens when people look at the current Republican presidential field and says, ... whaa?? That's where the Dems are now, there's no obvious front-runner at Christie's level.  

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Codey '13 (0.00 / 0)
A true blue, unbossed, Democrat.

What I have learned (0.00 / 0)
is overreaching does matter to voters and NJ dems could learn some lessons from Ohio.

bluescat1 (0.00 / 0)
Can you expand on that a bit?

It's not a particularly snappy signature, but here's what I think we need in the next NJ Democratic State Chair.  

[ Parent ]
I hope that you are right, but... (0.00 / 0)
...I don't think so.  I don't believe that the 2013 results were a rejection of Christie's overreaching.  If they were, then we would have won in LD11 and LD16 where Democrats had a legitimate chance at defeating his Republican allies in Trenton (as opposed to his Democratic allies in Trenton).

The fact that Codey, Greenstein, Gordon, and Whelan won as handily as they did had far more to do with them, the campaigns that they ran, and the respect that their constituents have for them than any feelings that they might have had about Christie.  This is especially true with regards to Whelan, who had virtually no coattails for his Assemblymates.  If there was really a backlash of any kind against Christie, I think that they would have won.

It is unlikely that there will be a backlash against Christie anytime soon as long as the Democratic leadership in Trenton are delivering votes for his agenda and making it appear as if what he is doing is bipartisan.


[ Parent ]
As usual...it's not simple.... (0.00 / 0)
...if you got the impresion that I thought the only reasons Ds won was a reaction in oposition to Christie, then I failed to be sufficiently clear.  Of course the factors you cite were/are criticaly important.

Christie is an aggressive bullying self absorbed asshole (lots of oxymorons there eh?), pure and simple.  The same applies to Kacich and Walker Caine and much of the most visible national Republican party.  

My sense is that that reality tends to suppress the R vote and enthuse/motivate the D vote....add to that the OWS movement which IS raising some consciousness about the unsane distribution of wealth that is killing our economy and you have the stuff of trends.

My sense is that progressive values/ideal are becoming far more widely understood/popular and that this next year is an opportunity to capitalize on that.  

It would be a shame if the establishment of the D party is allowed to harvest the discontent and sufering sown by the establishment of the R party.

Let's not allow Nader's analysis to prevail.......this is the time for the progressive movement to BECOME a national movement and to use the democratic process to take over the establishment of the Democratc party.


[ Parent ]
PS You Mean 2011 Results n/t (0.00 / 0)


[ Parent ]
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