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73%, 47%, 43% ... 32%?

by: Jeff Gardner

Fri Nov 04, 2011 at 10:00:00 AM EDT



Update:  And the answer is ... an all-time low of 26%. That's just sad. -JG

New Jersey is unique in so many ways, not the least of which is our 4-year election cycle. Unlike most other states, which combine their federal and state races and take a break every other year, we have critical elections each and every year. But, unfortunately, we have a hard time keeping voters' attention, so the cycle ends up looking like this:

  • Year One: the Presidential Year - even in years where the outcome is a foregone conclusion, voters will come out to register their choice. In 2008, NJ voter turnout was 73%.

  • Year Two: the Gubernatorial Year - one of only two states that elect their governor the year after electing a president, turnout drops off significantly, but there's still pretty good participation. In 2009, NJ voter turnout was 47%.

  • Year Three: the Midterms - whether a referendum on the President, or the Congress, the midterms carry national attention, but never seem to draw the same voter participation. Despite the highly charged atmosphere in 2010, NJ voter turnout was only 43%.

  • And now Year Four: the Legislative Election - the entire legislative branch of government in our state is up for election - all 40 Senate seats, all 80 Assembly seats. And, what kind of turnout should we expect? Well, if history serves as a guide - in 2007, NJ voter turnout was a paltry 32%.
    		•
    Jeff Gardner :: 73%, 47%, 43% ... 32%?
    That's a shame. Because there are vitally important races, not just in LD2, LD7, LD11, LD14, LD16, LD27 and LD38, but frankly, every District. Not to mention important county elections, and municipal races with great candidates in Hawthorne, Fair Lawn, Red Bank, Parsippany, Berkeley Heights, Pt. Pleasant and many other places around the state. If one race doesn't interest you, another one should. If you can't think of a race you want to help with, let me know - I guarantee I can hook you up with a worthy campaign near you that needs your help.

    It may be preaching to the choir to tell the Blue Jersey audience to vote on Tuesday. But, that choir needs to sing out: don't just vote, but get friends, family, neighbors and co-workers who share your values to vote on Tuesday. In Year Four of our election cycle, turnout is everything.
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    73%, 47%, 43% ... 32%? | 31 comments
    Might be lucky to reach 32% this time (4.00 / 1)
    The lack of competitive races is certainly a factor.  Also, there are probably a lot of Democrats discouraged by the performance of the "Democratic" legislature.

    I know I will be voting for the Greenstein, Benson, D'Angleo ticket.  But I'm one of the lucky ones who actually has a real Democratic ticket to vote for.  If you're in places like much of south Jersey, and parts of Essex and Hudson counties, you might think, what's the point?

    It is competitive (4.00 / 2)
    The 7th District is very competitive. I sent an email to everyone in my address book who lives in the district informing them of the race and why I think they should vote for the Cook/Conaway/Singleton ticket. Several have written back thanking me for the information. No one has sent back a snarky remark. If everyone in a competitive district does this, we can make a difference.

    Blog: http://www.deciminyan.org
    [ Parent ]
    I already voted in my very uncompetitive district (4.00 / 2)
    Rated R +30+ in the recent Politicker article.

    Here I am working in a very competitive South Jersey race where I am putting all my effort into increasing turnout in cities that typically have a very low voter participation rate.  

    It's glamorous to vote for President.  Presidential years have historically higher turnout.  But the smaller the office, the more of an impact it has on you.  

    I know that i am preaching to the choir here but just GOTV dammit!

    http://outspokenliberal.blogsp...

    Another factor... (4.00 / 2)
    Your vote has more clout in a low-turnout election. Vote, dammit!

    Blog: http://www.deciminyan.org
    [ Parent ]
    What's Bob Gordon smoking these days? (0.00 / 0)
    He must be smoking something to spend his limited resources on an ad that does nothing more than alienate an important part of his political base. It's the political equivalent of Plaxico Burress shooting himself in the foot.

    And then why does Steve Sweeney have to get involved to smooth things over? Doesn't Bob Gordon know how to sit down and talk to his own supporters? Why does his campaign manager have to issue a flimsy statement, can't Gordon speak for himself on such an issue of great importance to a significant part of his political base?

    Besides, since when has the use of economic development bonds to stimulate thousands of jobs in a depressed economy become anathema to Democrats? The only issue was whether the bonds could be issued for the Meadowlands since technically it is not a "distressed" community. The legislature had to pass an enabling act for the bonds to be issued. Did Gordon vote for or against? If he voted "yes" then he is a hypocrite.

    This is undountedly the most important race of the campaign, and turnout is everything which is all the more reason not to alienate the people you depend on to GOTV. A GOP victory here will boost Chrisite immeasurably, and embolden the GOP to further advance their agenda. I'll be pleasantly surprised if Gordon manages to pull this one out despite his ineptitude. The only positive outcome from a Gordon loss is that maybe the Dems can take the seat back in two years with a more competent candidate.

    I think the following comment someone posted on PolitckerNJ sums it up best: "Gordon might even start having problems in Bergenfield and Lodi because of this. What low-fructose muffin munching Upper West Side elitist idiot consultant told him to run this?

    Somewhere John Girgenti is laughing."
     

    http://christiegonewild.blogsp...

    Sweeney... (3.50 / 2)
    ...is stoking this issue behind the scenes.  Gordon was with Codey in 2009 and Sweeney doesn't need him to remain Senate President.  If anything, he would prefer to get someone as principled as Bob out of the way and run someone else who he can control in two years.

    This is the beginning of a civil war within the Democratic Party and organized labor.  On the outside looking in are Democrats like Codey, Cryan, and Gordon and the public employee unions.  On the inside, cozy and warm, are Sweeney's beloved building and construction trades, who want construction to occur no matter how unnecessary it might be, how environmentally damaging it might be, or how inappropriate it might be to be paid for with public dollars, because all they want are the jobs that construction produces, by any means necessary.

    But it would be one thing if the B&CTs were just upset if Bob Gordon was just someone who was standing in the way of something that would provide them with construction jobs, especially since the ad in question, which criticizes the public bonding for private purposes, is not going to prevent the bonding or the construction from taking place.  It is another thing entirely that Ray Pocino, whose Laborers are based in South Jersey, are not the least bit concerned about the fact that by defeating Gordon, they would be handing a huge victory to Chris Christie, the man who stopped the ARC tunnel project, which would have provided them with far more construction jobs for a much longer period of time than this nonsensical money pit.  This issue is not about construction jobs.  This issue is about taking out Bob Gordon.

    If Gordon loses this race, because he had the guts to oppose public bonding for a private boondoggle like The American Nightmare/Xanadu, he should get a Profiles in Courage award as he would be one of a select few people in Trenton to do and say the right thing on an issue regardless of how it impacts his electoral chances.

    [ Parent ]
    The knives are out for Buono also (0.00 / 0)
    According to politicker, Weinberg, who supported Sweeney over Codey, may replace her as majority leader.
    [ Parent ]
    not surprising (0.00 / 0)
    Gordon Johnson already announced his support for Oliver.  It is possible that this is related to a deal that would make Senator Weinberg's Majority Leader.

    Loretta is among a select few legislators who would use the power of the Majority Leader's office for the greater good than her own.  Her presence also puts progressive lipstick on a pig of a leadership team, but if the end result is two more years of regressive legislation, then as the saying goes, the leadership team is still a pig.

    I was probably naive to project that she would be with Cryan and Codey when she wasn't with Codey in 2009, but the one thing that has enabled her to be as effective a progressive as she has been is her willingness to also make deals with people less progressive than she is in order to be in a position to advocate for her issues of concern.

    As depressing as it is to see her on the wrong side, if she becomes Majority Leader, it will be a silver lining in what I expect to be two very cloudy years.  It will be interesting to see if something happens during this period of time that will force her to publicly break with the bosses.

    [ Parent ]
    That's the other side of the argument (0.00 / 0)
    That you need someone who can make deals with the devil, so to speak.  But if the deals are just trading votes for leadership position, that's not an accomplishment.  If you trade votes for deals on legislation, that's another matter.
    [ Parent ]
    How did Gordon vote? (0.00 / 0)
    So how did Gordon vote on the waiver to allow economic development bonds to be used for for the Meadowlands?

    http://christiegonewild.blogsp...
    [ Parent ]
    no idea (0.00 / 0)
    I am sure that you can find out if you are curious enough.
    [ Parent ]
    Sweeney... (0.00 / 0)
    ...is stoking this issue behind the scenes.  Gordon was with Codey in 2009 and Sweeney doesn't need him to remain Senate President.  If anything, he would prefer to get someone as principled as Bob out of the way and run someone else who he can control in two years.

    This is the beginning of a civil war within the Democratic Party and organized labor.  On the outside looking in are Democrats like Codey, Cryan, and Gordon and the public employee unions.  On the inside, cozy and warm, are Sweeney's beloved building and construction trades, who want construction to occur no matter how unnecessary it might be, how environmentally damaging it might be, or how inappropriate it might be to be paid for with public dollars, because all they want are the jobs that construction produces, by any means necessary.

    But it would be one thing if the B&CTs were just upset if Bob Gordon was just someone who was standing in the way of something that would provide them with construction jobs, especially since the ad in question, which criticizes the public bonding for private purposes, is not going to prevent the bonding or the construction from taking place.  It is another thing entirely that Ray Pocino, whose Laborers are based in South Jersey, are not the least bit concerned about the fact that by defeating Gordon, they would be handing a huge victory to Chris Christie, the man who stopped the ARC tunnel project, which would have provided them with far more construction jobs for a much longer period of time than this nonsensical money pit.  This issue is not about construction jobs.  This issue is about taking out Bob Gordon.

    If Gordon loses this race, because he had the guts to oppose public bonding for a private boondoggle like The American Nightmare/Xanadu, he should get a Profiles in Courage award as he would be one of a select few people in Trenton to do and say the right thing on an issue regardless of how it impacts his electoral chances.

    I can't predict (0.00 / 0)
    On the one hand, there's SO much attention being paid and money spent in LD38, that you might expect higher than usual turnout.

    But, most of the mail and television has been negative, which would tend to depress turnout.

    So, where the wheel stops, nobody knows.

    Is CWA Sleeping in on their off day? (0.00 / 0)
    Many years ago,when CWA was active and relevant in state politics,they did a very smart thing.

    They got their bosses to include as part of their contract a day off for election day.It was brilliant. What other employee organization gets a paid day off to go vote ,up or down, on their employers!

    But over the past 6 years the current CWA leadership has made this all irrelevant. Ove 60,000 CWA members are off on Tuesday and maybe 2% will be involved in some sort of GOTV.

    That is due to horrible political leadership by the CWA top people.

    With a paid day off 98% of the CWA members ,along with their clueless leadership,will be sleeping in.

    Imagine the potential political power of all of those people.

    What a waste......  

    What can we conclude from this? (0.00 / 0)
    Maybe, just maybe, pension and benefit reform isn't as important an issue to the workers directly affected by it as it is to their leadership, progressive activists and some Democratic politicians. Perhaps because these same workers see their friends and neighbors losing their jobs and so consider themselves lucky to still have a job even if they have to pay more for their pension and benefits.

    The bottom line is that if the workers don't care enough about their mistreatment to even bother voting on a paid day off, why should anyone else?

    http://christiegonewild.blogsp...

    [ Parent ]
    Or... (0.00 / 0)
    ...they are responding to the abuses that have been heaped upon them by elected officials by staying home instead of campaigning.

    That said, I expect that CWA members will be well represented amongst the campaign volunteers, working hard for Democrats in places like LD14, LD27, and LD38, unlike the automatons in the building and construction trades, who do whatever their leaders tell them to do, and during the rare occasion when they are allowed to think for themselves, they are amongst the most conservative members of organized labor.

    I did not come up with this solely based on my own experiences.  One of the highest-ranked members of B&CT leadership told me this (quite drunkenly - in vino veritas - and honestly) at an NJDSC Conference.

    [ Parent ]
    "Reagan Democrats" and "Hardhats" (0.00 / 0)
    I remember the "hardhats" beating up anti-war protestors forty years ago, so I'm not surprised by your observation.  

    http://christiegonewild.blogsp...
    [ Parent ]
    The Civil War is Coming (0.00 / 0)
    I predict that Democrats and Labor will be deeply divided over the next two years.  On one side will be Democrats aligned with Adubato/Oliver, Norcross/Sweeney, Christie, and the B&CTs.  On the other side will be Democrats aligned with Codey, Cryan, and the rest of organized labor.

    Undoubtably, the latter side will lose most, if not all, of the battles, because the former side will be working with the Republicans to implement Christie's agenda.  Hopefully, losing enough of these battles will convince them that the only answer is an all-out, county by county, district-by-district, primary election battle in 2013.

    However, in order to win a battle like this, they need to start organizing now and challenging county committee seats in 2012.

    [ Parent ]
    Thing is (0.00 / 0)
    Only progressive Democrats have won statewide nominations for governor or senator the last 40 years or so.  Because they represent the majority of Democrats.  But when things are sliced and diced, the Christiecrat crowd can rule.  Which is good news for the Democratic nomination for '13, but better news for Christie, as expect the bosses to sit on their hands.
    [ Parent ]
    McGreevey was not a progressive (0.00 / 0)
    And if regressives control Bergen, Camden, Essex, and Hudson Counties, it is going to be very hard for a progressive to win the Democratic nomination, much less the general election, unless progressives are able to build a very strong statewide organization, particularly in the parts of the state where regressives are dominant.
    [ Parent ]
    Compared to Rob Andrews he was (0.00 / 0)
    And boss control doesn't have the impact in one state race that it does in 40 separate district races.
    [ Parent ]
    Mike Murphy was the progressive in 1997 (0.00 / 0)
    Neither Andrews nor McGreevey ran on any progressive issue agenda.  If anything, at the same time that Christie Todd Whitman was being beaten up for vetoing the Republican ban on late-term abortion, they were both running away from the issue.

    Both were very bossed up back then with Andrews being backed up by Norcross and McGreevey being backed up by Lesniak and Lynch.  The imact of boss control can be minimized in a statewide race if the opposition is as well-organized as the bosses.  It remains to be seen if this will happen in 2013.

    [ Parent ]
    Maybe they're so disillusioned by the Christiecrats (3.00 / 1)
    that they see no point in working or voting.  They know that no matter what happens on Tuesday, the Christiecrat-Republican alliance will be in control.
    [ Parent ]
    No, CWA political leadership is lazy and clueless (1.00 / 1)
    CWA leadership in New Jersey is useless politically.

    They have no organizational skills and they have no feel for Jersey politics.

    Look at the NJEA. They are already mending fences while the idiots at CWA are still fighting old battles.

    CWA is a complete embarrassment and will never rise to its potential so long as New York radical leftists control the union.

    Progressives should be watching how the NJEA is beginning to adapt.

    Do not make excuses for the CWA leadership. They are clueless .

    [ Parent ]
    New York radical leftists? (1.00 / 1)
    Historically, that has been code word for "Jews".  Do you have a problem with us, FA07?  I know that I would rather be a radical leftist than a South Jersey hick.  

    Why don't you and the rest of your brain-dead brethren down in SJ just become the Republicans that you want to be and let progressives have the Democratic Party?  I don't care if we would be as popular in your parts of the state as we are in places like Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, and Texas.  It would still be better to have Democrats who stand up for Democratic values and lose than Christiecrats who win.

    The big tent that you speak of so often consists of DINOs and Republicans.  Progressives have no place in your tent, because you are more interested in playing the game of politics and rigging it for your own advantage than you are for advocating for our issues of concern.

    [ Parent ]
    You are losing it! (1.00 / 1)
    Who ever talked about Jewish People?

    What I am talking about are socialists, like your self, who would rather tear down everything than keep an open mind and actually talk to those who disagree with you.

    The CWA is being run by people who are more concerned with " society changing " than realistic political gains for its members.

    Your credibility was completely shot when you admitted to being a promoter for the radical socialist agenda . Please do not continue to hide behind the " progressive" title.

    True Progressives know the importance of working with others. You and your Socialist Labor Party members have a completely different agenda.    

    [ Parent ]
    The only thing that I promote... (2.50 / 2)
    ...is the democratic process, which Adubato/Oliver, Norcross/Sweeney, and other Christiecrats like yourself have perverted.

    I cannot speak for the CWA, because I have only been a member of AFSCME in the past, but I seriously doubt that any public employee union thinks that it can achieve any gains for its members in this political environment, thanks, once again, to Christiecrats like yourself.  At best, they are trying to protect their members from your radical Christiecratic agenda.

    Yes, two can play your ridiculous label game.

    [ Parent ]
    What New York radical leftists? (4.00 / 1)
    CWA is more representative of Democrats in this state than the boss beholden DINOs that, with their Republican allies, control the legislature.
    [ Parent ]
    In Hudson County (0.00 / 0)
    there are about as many reasons to vote as there are snowmen in hell.  
    All the more reason to vote and to.... (0.00 / 0)
    ....write in a protest candidate.

    Hudson County needs to be Occupied!

    Frankly, it's a perfect example of why voter registration and turnout numbers are so low.  And the machines LIKE IT THAT WAY!

    [ Parent ]
    Postscript (0.00 / 0)
    In fact, turnout reached an all-time low of 26%.

    That's just sad.

    73%, 47%, 43% ... 32%? | 31 comments
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