Blue Jersey Focus: Troy Singleton, featured

It is hard for me to get excited... (3.00 / 1)

...about re-electing a Norcross acolyte, even one as seemingly decent as Singleton.  I know that this is a dangerous game of chicken to play, especially considering how tight the races are in LD14 and LD38, but would Norcross have less leverage in a leadership battle if he suddenly lost Albano and Milam in LD1, Whelan in LD2, Madden and Moriarty in LD4, and Conaway and Singleton in LD7?

Yes, the Democratic majority in the Assembly would drop from 47-33 to 42-38 and in the Senate from 24-16 to 22-18, which means that Norcross could still threaten to throw his 4 Senators and 6 Assemblypersons to the Republicans if he doesn't get the leadership team that he wants, but if his bluff is called, he would either have to make good on his threat or back down.

If he makes good on his threat, then we will have a Wisconsin-like situation here in NJ for the next two years, which would be very bad for two years, but could provide progressive Democrats with the environment that they need to finally get their act together and organize statewide, particularly in South Jersey where Norcross has been able to operate anti-Democratically without opposition for more than a decade, growing his power base exponentially during this time.  And if he backs down, which is a possibility, but not a likelihood, then his power could be neutralized for at least two years, providing his opponents in the party with the opportunity to roll back his power base over the next two years.

If for the sake of discussion, he Norcross did back down and the leadership battle did not include the "nuclear option", it is anybody's guess who would come out on top, but let's take a quick look at the delegation and see how things could break down regionally.

South Jersey

4 Senators (Van Drew, Sweeney, Norcross, and Beach)

6 Assemblypersons (Burzicelli, Riley, Fuentes, Wilson, Greenwald, and Lampitt)

Middlesex and Mercer

5 Senators (Greenstein, Turner, Smith, Buono, and Vitale)

10 Assemblypersons (Benson, DeAngelo, Watson Coleman, Gusciora, Chivukula, Egan, Barnes  III, Diegnan, Wisniewski, and Coughlin

Union

2 Senators (Lesniak and Scutari)

4 Assemblypersons (Cryan, Quijano, Green, and Stender)

Essex/Adubato

3 Senators (Gill, Rice Sr., and Ruiz)

5 Assemblypersons (Oliver, Caputo, Tucker, Spencer, and Coutinho)

Essex/Codey

1 Senator (Codey)

3 Assemblypersons (Giblin, McKeon, and Jasey)

Passaic

1 Senator (Pou)

3 Assemblypersons (Sumter, Wimberly, and Schaer)

Hudson

3 Senators (Cunningham, Sacco, and Stack)

6 Assemblypersons (Mainor, O'Donnell, Prieto, ?, Ramos, and ?)

Bergen/Weinberg

2 Senators (Gordon and Weinberg)

4 Assemblypersons (Vainieri-Huttle, Johnson, Wagner, and Eustace)

Bergen/Sarlo

1 Senator (Sarlo)

1 Assemblyperson (?)

With a 23-17 majority in the Senate, the magic number would be 12.  With a 42-38 majority in the Assembly, the magic number would be 22.  If Middlesex/Mercer, Union, Essex/Codey, and Bergen/Weinberg are on one side and Essex/Adubato, Hudson, Passaic, and Bergen/Sarlo are on the other side, the latter would win the Senate 12-10 and be tied in the Assembly 21-21.

However, there are a number of people who I have placed with the regressives who could vote with the progressives.  Rice Sr. voted with Codey during the 2009 coup and could vote with him again.  I am assuming that LD35 and LD36 will go with the political machines, because Sarlo and Passaic County Chairman, John Currie are products of machine politics.  However, it is not outside the realm of possibility that two or all three of them could be peeled off.

It is also possible that DeAngelo's ties to the Building and Construction Trades could prove to be more compelling than the public employee unions that are very strong in his district.  Wisniewski could also be compelled to break with the progressives in return for another term as NJDSC Chair.

However, for this unholy alliance to remain intact, Norcross would have to back down on any effort to unseat Oliver, and Adubato would have to do the same with regards to Sweeney.  Buono and Cryan would most likely be ousted from their Majority Leader positions and be replaced by Sarlo in the Senate and Prieto in the Assembly.

However, if the progressives succeeded in winning over Rice Sr., LD35, and LD36, we would most likely see Buono as Senate President, Sarlo as Majority Leader, Cryan as Assembly Speaker, and Wisniewski as Majority Leader.  The biggest problem with this leadership configuration is its lack of people of color and the reduction of women by one.

This problem could be fixed somewhat if Bonnie Watson Coleman were given the Assembly Speaker position that she should have had when Joe Roberts stepped down.  In return for agreeing to serve only one two-year term in this position, she could be promised the LG slot on the gubernatorial ticket in 2013 if Codey wins the nomination.  Cryan and Wisniewski could be moved up to Speaker and Majority Leader in 2014 with Nellie Pou becoming NJDSC Chair.

So the way that I see it, as long as we can retain Democratic seats in LD14 and LD38, we could afford to lose seats in South Jersey, while creating the opportunity to elect more progressive leadership going forward.  That said, LD14 and LD38 are probably too close to play that kind of game, but it is good to know that there could be an upside to losing in South Jersey.

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by: Bertin Lefkovic @ Mon Oct 31, 2011 at 02:37:17 AM UTC

I believe in Troy (4.00 / 1)

I won't deny Troy comes from the Joe Roberts and George Norcross group. And I don't like how he came to be an incumbent.

But that being said, I thought Joe Roberts was a really good Speaker, and Troy played a big part in that behind the scenes. I saw Troy as less of a Norcross acolyte and more as a supporter of sound, progressive public policy. His campaign is the second ever campaign to which I've donated money - the first being Gardner for Senate. From everything I hear, Troy's working his tail end off to earn votes and legitimize his incumbency.

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by: southernbluedog @ Mon Oct 31, 2011 at 11:38:23 AM UTC

Troy (0.00 / 0)

I'm hard-wired for discomfort with unelected shadow powers. That said, though I would not say I know Troy Singleton well, I've never known him as anything but a wired-in high-octane engine of work ethic. I hope if he wins, his direction is his own. He's got the building blocks of a fine legislator.

It's not a particularly snappy signature, but here's what I think we need in the next NJ Democratic State Chair.  

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by: Rosi Efthim @ Mon Oct 31, 2011 at 13:10:16 PM UTC

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