Q) With 16 years of hindsight, how do you explain the tax revolt that greeted the budget you signed in 1990?
A) I think part of it was that it came as a surprise to so many people. There had been no indi cation that there was a substantial budgetary shortfall. The outgoing administration was saying there would be a $300 million sur plus; in fact, there was a $600 million shortfall in the year I took office and a projected $2 billion shortfall for the year ahead. With no advance warning of the difficulty, and then only a few weeks after uncovering this dilemma, we had to reveal to everyone news that no one was prepared for.
In comparison, everyone knew the budget was in crap shape when Corzine ran for Governor. The budget shortfall was slightly bigger than anticipated, but the size of the problem was never an issue of debate. Corzine isn't Florio.
Q) Were you surprised by the vehemence of the backlash?
A) Looking back now, it doesn't surprise me, because the tenor of the times was edgy, to say the least. We were going into a deep national recession, and New Jersey was at the leading edge of the political response, because our elections take place in the off years and the Legislature had to face the voters a year before elected officials in other places did. Remember what happened elsewhere: Mayor David Dinkins lost his job in New York City, Gov. Mario Cuomo lost his job in New York, and by 1994 the Congress had turned from Democratic to Republican control.
So - our economy isn't exactly surging, but it isn't heading for recession. The national political discussion is about Iraq, not taxes. Mayor Mike Bloomberg just won re-election after raising taxes. Indications are that Democrats will have a strong showing in 2006 elections. Corzine isn't Florio.
Florio continues:
There were some special circumstances, too: Talk radio was just coming into vogue, the hard- edged component of that. And we later learned that many of the resources put into the opposition came not from tax groups but from gun groups -- they were un happy about what we did with gun control and reacted by funding anti-tax groups.
As of yet, the NRA isn't gunning for Corzine. 101 can't even get people to show up on the Boardwalk on a nice day. NJ Republicans are reduced to throwing Tom Kean, Jr. on the mercy of his name to turn out a decent showing in this year's election. Corzine isn't Florio.
Q) How do you think your experience has affected budget negotiations in the years since? Are legislators, especially Democrats, more afraid to make difficult choices?
A) The anti-tax fervor is not something unique to New Jersey. It has occurred across the nation for the last 25 years. The culture has changed, and President Reagan was very much responsible for this kind of cultural change in the 1980s. No one has ever been really enthusiastic about taxes, of course, but for most of our history there was a mature realization that you got what you pay for.
Note that Florio doesn't answer the first question. He spares Joe Roberts' feelings in the second, but make no mistake. That's a "Yes, Democrats are afraid to make difficult choices" answer. Again, Corzine is not Florio.
Florio continues:
Q) A lot of people have compared your first days in office with Corzine's: A Democratic governor with a Democratic Legislature faces a structural deficit and tries to close the gap in part by raising taxes. Do you get a sense of deja vu watching all this?
A) There are some things that are similar and some that are different. Governor Corzine's problems, in terms of magnitude, are far worse than what I faced. The deficit as a percentage of the budget -- it's much more diffi cult. On the other hand, none of this came as a surprise; Governor Corzine was not revealing new facts. The problems were discussed during the campaign last year. That's an advantage, in the sense he didn't have to spring this on people. And it should be said that this is not a problem of his making. This is a result of years of irresponsible fiscal policies -- underfunding the state pension system, increased bor rowing and so forth. Why do you think this year's budget battle ended up being so tough? It's fairly clear to understand. In one respect, the governor has benefited appropriately from his business-like approach to budgeting. That's a good thing, and the press has been kind to him for wanting to bring good business principles to bear on the situation.
I think he's pretty clear on this. Corzine is no Florio.
At the same time, one of the things the governor will learn is that there's also a need for some degree of political skill. Probably the most significant thing is to engage the Legislature early, rather than let them wait and have a budget submitted to them. You want lawmakers to have an intellectual and emotional investment in the product. I think the governor, after this traumatic experience, will try to involve the Legislature earlier in the process. The opposition to Corzine's sales tax increase was strongest in South Jersey.
This shows that, in some ways, Florio is still clueless. Corzine was elected in November and said all along that he'd raise taxes and cut spending. He introduced a budget that did that in April? May? How much sooner could he engage the legislature? Should he have hired Joe Roberts to work on his campaign?
Still, perhaps it's best if they start slugging out next year's budget now.
Q) You moved up through Democratic politics in Camden County; what do you make of that opposition?
A) Not a lot.
Q) Was this a failed power play by South Jersey boss George Norcross?
A) I keep reading that stuff, and it's just so silly. Assembly Speaker Joe Roberts (a Camden Democrat who led the opposition to Corzine's budget) feels strongly about the policy issues involved, and I assume that's what prompted his view on these things. Corzine now must convince voters that the sales tax increase is necessary, and was worth shutting down the government for.
Uh, if it was a strongly felt position against a one-penny tax increase, then why did he finally pass a one-penny tax increase? If Roberts had passed the budget as was his duty - any budget at all - then it wouldn't have mattered if it was "worth shutting down the government" or not.
Q) Do you think this will be a tough sell?
A) I'm not sure I agree with the premise of the question. Clearly the governor has to go out and just try to manage the state finances in an effective way. To prove it was necessary won't be hard, because people realize there are a lot of difficult chal lenges. We've had 12 years of policies that made no sense. We have a legacy of policies that are totally inexcusable, and people are starting to understand that. Part of the continuing dilemma is: How you deal with the escalating needs we have?
Hmmm. So Florio is saying "If Corzine does his job, he'll be okay"? Oh, he's also saying, "If Democrats don't fall over each other denouncing him and trying to look like they have a better plan when they have none, he'll be okay." I get it now. Corzine isn't Florio.
Q) There's a U.S. Senate election in New Jersey this fall. How much ammunition do you think the intramural Democratic budget fight has given the Republican candidate, state Sen. Tom Kean Jr., in his campaign against U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez?
A) Part of the problem for Republicans will be defining themselves and the issues. If they want to define the campaign on their terms, they have to try to talk about state issues and hope they are perceived as being on the right side of that. But it's a national election this fall, and national issues are going to dominate -- and in that regard, the Republican Party is not in great shape.
Yes, plus Junior has been trying for weeks to make this connection and no one is buying it. Corzine isn't Florio.
Q) How easy do you think it will be for Corzine and Assembly Democrats to work together after all of this?
A) It will be very easy, in large measure because of Governor Corzine's personality -- maybe to his detriment, he's not someone who's vindictive or overly political. Whatever you think of the players in this drama, they're all very professional -- Senate President Richard Codey, Speaker Roberts and Governor Corzine and his team. I suspect some members of the administration are going through a learning process, adapting to the political realities. But you've got a lot of very mature people in the process, so even though there will be some basic philosophical differences, I think you'll see people working together without a lot of screaming and yelling.
In other words, Roberts can be a prick, but Corzine can handle him. After all, he just handled him like a red-headed step-child. If Roberts wants to keep his job, he can't afford to lose another battle - so look for him to work with the Governor instead of against him.
Corzine isn't Florio. |
