Sun Sep 25, 2011 at 04:34:01 PM EDT
|
| There is a constant buzz about the possibility that Governor Christie might run for the presidency despite his often colorful and emphatic denials. If he were to run and even to win, what could we expect to happen within NJ? And what might it be like with Lieutenant Governor Kim Guadagno temporarily assuming his powers while he crisscrosses the country, and even ascending to the governorship if he is elected President?
According to our constitution, "In the event of the absence from the State of a Governor in office ... the functions, powers, duties and emoluments of the office shall devolve upon the Lieutenant Governor until the Governor returns to the state." Nonetheless, although Christie would be frequently out of state campaigning, he would de-facto remain in charge. He already has in place a strong and supportive team of Executive Office leaders in Richard Bagger, Bill Stepien, Wayne Hasenbalg and Jeff Chiesa who understand and are good at carrying out his wishes. Even though some might join his campaign staff, others would remain in Trenton to keep order and to convey instructions to Guadagno and cabinet members. Also, Christie has local consultants, advisors, friends, high-power friends, and people inserted within the various departments who can keep a watchful eye and act as enforcers. |
| Bill Orr :: NJ and Guadagno: With Christie as Candidate Or As President |
| However, with Christie busy on the hustings, he would have less time to promote his NJ initiatives and to cement arrangements with legislators, bosses, and local politicians. These do not appear to be skill sets of Kim Guadagno, so the momentum for change would be considerably reduced. It does not mean that the legislature would necessarily become more powerful, as Christie would retain his veto power over the Democratic body - one which is not expected to change substantially in the upcoming elections. Some of the unseemly dealmaking between Christie and legislative leaders might subside, but the larger differences between the two parties would remain. In this scenario Guadagno most likely becomes a caretaker with the state in stasis.
Kim Guadagno would become governor when and if a vacancy occurs in the governor's office. Thus were Christie to be elected in Nov 2012 as President, the vacancy would occur via his resignation, most likely between his election and no later than his inauguration. It is generally difficult to predict what VP's or LG's would do upon assuming the top job as they have generally spent most of their time adhering closely to their boss' line. Following Christie, who has left a large imprint on the state, would be difficult for anyone.
Upon assuming office she would have to announce almost immediately whether she is a candidate in the upcoming 2013 gubernatorial elections. If she declines to run, she continues largely as a caretaker with little innovation taking place in NJ. If she wants to run, she needs quickly to garner support of bosses, funders, party chairmen, and key Republicans state-wide. She needs to raise her visibility and popularity with the public and develop a strong fundraising campaign. Even if Christie were to support her - a huge if - she still would have difficulty. Guadagno can be forceful in a speech, but she lacks the easy self-confidence, conviction, and exuberance of her boss, and seems less like a natural leader. As a speaker she can appear strident, uncomfortable and awkward. It would not suffice for her to say "four more years of the same policies." To succeed she would have to stand on her own two feet and display leadership. She would have to confront a Democratic opponent and do so in a campaign where Christie and his policies might well have lost their sheen amidst an economic world turned upside down. It is not apparent at this point that she is up to the task.
What do you think? |
|
Featured Stories  |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
.gif)
