| We all know the story in New Jersey. Our Democratic senators -- even Frank Lautenberg -- poll poorly on approval ratings but after much hype win the election easily. Public Policy Polling just released its New Jersey poll and we can see the usual at work:
Bob Menendez, Favorable-Unfavorable: A lousy 37-35.
But put Menendez up against conservative Mike Doherty, recent statewide winner Kim Guadagno, Jets owner Woody Johnson, or more establishment Republican Tom Kyrillos, and he polls 48% with 13-19% leads.
Remember what that means: the Republican needs 90% of the undecided voters. It's not impossible but it's not a good bet. Remember that the 50% rule is a myth; incumbents need to much lower (like Corzine was) to be in deep trouble.
Tom Kean Jr, who Menendez beat easily despite softness in the polls in 2006, does a bit better but still trails. By now, we all know that although it seems absurd, a significant number of voters confuse him with his father if not reminded.
In any case, Menendez had better run like his career depends on it. But, he's heavily favored, and this poll shows why.
ps. They've hinted on twitter that Christie's poll numbers are bad. Release is tomorrow. Perhaps though that wil encourage him to jump in the Presidential race. |
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