Thu Jun 23, 2011 at 04:38:33 PM EDT
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| (This post is part of a larger series attempting to create an index of state legislatures around the country. As a committed progressive myself, I began this project in an effort to give those of us online more tools to use when analyzing what happens inside our state capitols and at the ballot box for our state legislatures. Since my blog is written for a broad audience, there is going to be information that is redundant for anyone with a basic understanding of NJ government.
There are two parts of data you'll see below, the NJ-DI score and the 50/50 score. 50/50 scores are just raw data, measuring what the generic margin of victory is in each district, where as the NJ-DI numbers are adjusted to be relative to the average NJ legislative district. For more information on what goes in to these numbers, how they're calculated, etc., I encourage you to check out the main site, or ask me questions in the comments - I'm more than happy to answer as many as possible.
As I'm not a New Jersey resident (Vermonter studying in Connecticut, I am sure there are things that your eyes will catch, or that you'd be interested in seeing, that have totally skipped my mind. Please bring those things to my attention, as I'd love to tailor my next post to providing some of that information.
Keep fighting the good fight,
- Matt)
Today begins the first of a two part series looking at New Jersey - first as how the districts have existed for the past decade, and then as the districts will exist following this fall's election. This is the first chance I've had to look at a state before and after redistricting, which offers a lot of exciting opportunities.
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| MattBreuer :: Legislative District Index: New Jersey, Part 1 |
Like several states before it, New Jersey's legislature is configured in 40 districts that elect one senator and two representatives. What stands out immediately as unique about Jersey is the fact that only one two-member district split their vote between the two parties, unprecedented compared to the other multi-member states we have looked at so far.
In fact, in terms of competitiveness, the map New Jersey has been using for the past year is certainly unique, in that it is hardly competitive. In fact, when you graph out the distribution of scores compared to the other states we've surveyed, New Jersey is entirely different - with large numbers of safe seats, a sharp drop into the handful of competitive areas, and then another drop into safe Republican territory. But it isn't just the data that tells the story, as Rutgers professor Ingrid Reed has remarked that in any given year, only three to five legislative races are truly up for grabs.
This is the very reason why the 2011 election is shaping up to be so challenging for New Jersey Democrats. The election of Chris Christie wasn't all that unique given the abysmal reception Democrats were receiving back in the fall of 2009 - what was different, however, was that Democrats maintained control of the legislature, thanks to an incredibly friendly map. Even though the New Jersey redistricting commission ultimately approved the Democratic drawn map for the next decade, what is revealing is that while not happy by any stretch, Republicans recognize that this map is a significant improvement for them over the status quo.
2011 isn't 2009 - there are plenty of things that have changed, and the environment isn't nearly as Republican as it was back then. That being said, Democrats aren't out of the water. Chris Christie's popularity may have fallen, but it's not clear that it has come to the benefit of New Jersey Democrats, and this time, they'll be waging that defense on a less friendly map. How less friendly will be the subject of our next update, which I hope you all check out. |
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