Re-districting Drama. An Open Thread.

Town (0.00 / 0)

My town is very likely to get moved.  It's now in the 30th, but I'm keeping my fingers crossed for a move into the 14th.

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by: 12mileseastofTrenton @ Sat Apr 02, 2011 at 22:19:15 PM UTC

Begining to think I may not be moved (0.00 / 0)

But end up in the Singer-Kean district, that will be mostly Monmouth and Ocean.  More Monmouth, less Ocean, and no Burlington than the current incarnation of the 30th district.

Oh well.  Another decade in GOP land.

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by: 12mileseastofTrenton @ Sun Apr 03, 2011 at 00:39:32 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hawthorne? Anyone? (0.00 / 0)

activist for hire.

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by: Jay Lassiter @ Sat Apr 02, 2011 at 22:24:04 PM UTC

Any (4.00 / 1)

chance Jeff runs for Assembly with Connie Wagner under Gordon's ticket?

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by: GayTeen4Obama @ Sat Apr 02, 2011 at 23:06:21 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

they say it's being moved (4.00 / 4)

Gardner's challenge made that jerk vulnerable and they threw him to the wolves.


Frank LoBiondo Record and Jon Runyan Watch

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by: Hopeful @ Sat Apr 02, 2011 at 23:13:39 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

And (0.00 / 0)

now Girgenti is going to move to Paterson and run there (IF that's even constitutional)  

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by: GayTeen4Obama @ Sat Apr 02, 2011 at 23:15:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

it is allowed (0.00 / 0)

It turns out it is allowed (Scott updated his front-page post from earlier in the week.)

 

Frank LoBiondo Record and Jon Runyan Watch

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by: Hopeful @ Sat Apr 02, 2011 at 23:22:28 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Carpetbaggery. Pure and simple. (0.00 / 0)

But we'll see what happens, right?

activist for hire.

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by: Jay Lassiter @ Sat Apr 02, 2011 at 23:28:12 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

yep (0.00 / 0)

This being NJ, he'll probably be able to retire on a full pension in Hawthorne and collect a full salary in Paterson. /snark


Frank LoBiondo Record and Jon Runyan Watch

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by: Hopeful @ Sat Apr 02, 2011 at 23:45:01 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Girgenti forgets that the Obama (0.00 / 0)

supporters in Paterson already openly endorsed Jeff.  He will find out exactly how few real supporters he has in Paterson if he does move.
This is post-flood of 2011 - Girgenti's Katrina.

I hope the Paterson Dems can find someone to primary Girgenti if he does relocate....

One Vote.  Yours.  It really does matter.

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by: carolh @ Mon Apr 04, 2011 at 12:22:36 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Jeff Needs To Run And Win No Matter WHO It's Against! n/t (4.00 / 2)

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by: Nick Lento @ Sun Apr 03, 2011 at 10:52:24 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

It looks like it is going to be... (0.00 / 0)

...the lone Passaic County town in the 38th.

From Capitol Quickies:

http://blogs.app.com/capitolqu...

38th District:

Keeps: Fair Lawn, Hasbrouck Heights, Lodi, Paramus, Saddle Brook

Adds: Bergenfield, Glen Rock, Hawthorne, Maywood, New Milford, Oradell, River Edge, Rochelle Park

Loses: Cliffside Park, Edgewater, Elmwood Park, Fort Lee, Little Ferry, Ridgefield, South Hackensack, Teterboro

Everything hinges on whether Girgenti moves in with his good buddy, Congressman Bill Pascrell Jr., or his former staffer, Councilman Andre Sayegh, and runs for re-election in the 35th, or is willing to recruit a couple of ambitious pols from Fair Lawn and Paramus to run with him against Bob Gordon.

I know that Connie Wagner felt that she was passed over when Bob Gordon was chosen to replace Joe Coniglio when the latter was forced to resign.  If Girgenti has the guts to take on Gordon, I would not be shocked to see Wagner do the same.  

She has more to gain from them splitting the male vote and getting the lion's share of women voters than she might lose from splitting Bergen County voters since 90% of the district is made up of Bergen County voters.  It is also possible that Wagner could take on Gordon even if Girgenti is not a factor.

It will be interesting to see how this impacts Jeff's legislative ambitions.  When Fort Lee was removed from the 38th and added to the 37th, it created an open Assembly seat in the district.  If Gordon is unopposed for re-election, then it will be a County Committee free-for-all that Jeff would probably have a tough time winning as there will most likely be multiple run-off rounds and I have a hard time imagining a Passaic County candidate getting a majority of Bergen County CC members in a district with a huge number of small towns to vote for him.

Being the municipal chair of the only Passaic County town in the district, Jeff could play hardball by running off the line in Bergen County and running on a line with Bob Gordon and Connie Wagner in Hawthorne/Passaic County, but even that would be an uphill climb with the person who runs with Gordon and Wagner in Bergen County having a huge advantage over him.

However, if there is a contested State Senate race between Girgenti and Gordon or Gordon and Wagner or Girgenti, Gordon, and Wagner, Jeff would have a pretty good chance to get on either Gordon's or Wagner's slate as he would become a tremendous asset for either of them.

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by: Bertin Lefkovic @ Sat Apr 02, 2011 at 23:57:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

When (0.00 / 0)

Girgenti, and I do say when moves to Paterson he will most likely face Assemblywoman Pou in the Senate race (if she decides to run).

If Gardner ends up getting short strawed then I will be extremely disappointed. I was hoping Hawthorne could stay in the 35th and he would become a state senator but now I see it even more difficult for him.

In my honest opinion, the 35th should have stayed the way it was with a simple tradeoff of Glen Rock for Woodland Park (or West Paterson).  

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by: GayTeen4Obama @ Sun Apr 03, 2011 at 00:09:30 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

not that simple (0.00 / 0)

The Latino community did a great job of advocating for their interests, forcing both Democrats and Republicans to listen.  Progressives could learn a lot from them.  As a result, I think that Democratic party leaders are going to go out of their way to recruit politically non-threatening Latino candidates to run for public office over the next decade in the same way that they made a concerted effort to place politically non-threatening women into public offices.

I think that Garfield and Paterson were going to be in the same district one way or another, making it virtually impossible for Hawthorne to remain in the same district as Paterson, but I also think that the backlash against the New Brunswick-Perth Amboy and Edison-Woodbridge districts, may have sealed Hawthorne's fate as the Garfield-Paterson link was the least controversial of any that had been previously put on the table.

I wouldn't assume that Nellie Pou is going to be in the mix for the State Senate seat in the 35th.  She has been shafted by the Passaic County all boys club before and it would not surprise me if she is shafted again.

Jeff Jones is going to be the kingmaker here and I think that there is very little, if anything, that Pou can do for him that is going to make him want to give her the seat.  If anything, he is more likely to make a deal with his chief adversary in Paterson, Jose "Joey" Torres, getting Torres out of the mayoral mix and onto his side, and in return, giving Torres the State Senate seat.

I think that it is very likely that all three incumbents, Girgenti, Elease Evans, and Pou, will have to run off the line if they want to run for re-election as Jones and Torres will most likely build a slate with their closest allies and that does not include any of those three.  They might give one of the Assembly seats to a Latino from Garfield to build bridges with the power brokers in their new districtmate.

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by: Bertin Lefkovic @ Sun Apr 03, 2011 at 02:07:11 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well (0.00 / 0)

Elease Evans retired so that's one less incumbent.

And it seems that most of the Dem establishment has lined behind Shavonda Sumter (ally of Jones) to become the Dem nominee for Assembly.

The Mayor of Prespect Park (Mohamed Khairullah) has been sending out a facebook poll to his friends about whether or not he should run for Assembly so that's another possibility.

There's also always Domenick Stampone (Mayor of Haledon) who everyone knows is ambitious and Paterson Councilmans Benjie WImberley and Morris.

I have a hard time thinking that Jones would back Torres for Senate/Assembly and think that he'd rather back Pou

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by: GayTeen4Obama @ Sun Apr 03, 2011 at 02:16:54 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Why? (0.00 / 0)

What do you know about Jones and Pou that would lead you to believe this?  She has nothing to offer him.  By giving Torres the Senate seat, Jones would be taking him out of Paterson politics, buying off his chief political rival, and guaranteeing himself a lock on the Mayor's office for the next decade at the very least if not longer.

Because Garfield would control the Bergen County party line, I think that they will get an Assemblyperson.  If I am right, then Torres, Sumter, and a Latina/o from Garfield is the most likely combo.  Girgenti and Pou will be on the outside looking in.  They will get Paterson Councilman, Andre Sayegh, or someone from Garfield to run on their "outsider" slate.

Thanks for the heads-up on Evans.  I missed that one.

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by: Bertin Lefkovic @ Sun Apr 03, 2011 at 03:37:20 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

As (0.00 / 0)

far as I know Torres hasn't been out in public since his election lose so it would depend if he would even want to run.

And in my opinion Girgenti and Pou aren't as close as people may think they are (especially since there were rumors that Pou would challenge Girgenti) so them on the same ticket may not happen.  

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by: GayTeen4Obama @ Sun Apr 03, 2011 at 04:59:12 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

never said they were close (0.00 / 0)

If I am right about a Jones-Torres alliance, throwing both Girgenti and Pou off of the line, they would have no choice but to run for re-election off the line together.

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by: Bertin Lefkovic @ Sun Apr 03, 2011 at 17:11:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Wayne (0.00 / 0)

Well unfortunately I still live in Wayne so the 40th district is where I'll be until I move.  

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by: GayTeen4Obama @ Sat Apr 02, 2011 at 23:05:29 PM UTC

I imagine I and the rest of Salem County (0.00 / 0)

will stay with Senator Sweeney.

Frank LoBiondo Record and Jon Runyan Watch

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by: Hopeful @ Sat Apr 02, 2011 at 23:09:30 PM UTC

here is a leaked map (0.00 / 0)

Lisa Fleisher posted this map saying it is the one that will be chosen tomorrow.

Frank LoBiondo Record and Jon Runyan Watch

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by: Hopeful @ Sun Apr 03, 2011 at 00:36:34 AM UTC

I'm (0.00 / 0)

not gonna lie, it's alot uglier than the current map

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by: GayTeen4Obama @ Sun Apr 03, 2011 at 00:41:36 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

really? (0.00 / 0)

If I zoom out on both and squint, they look equally strange.  :)

Frank LoBiondo Record and Jon Runyan Watch

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by: Hopeful @ Sun Apr 03, 2011 at 00:50:48 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Crappy resolution (0.00 / 0)

Makes it hard to see what Lisa Fleisher posted -- anyone have a better link to this?

Jeffrey Doshna

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by: Jeff Doshna @ Sun Apr 03, 2011 at 00:57:54 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Very interested to see where the rest of Passaic County ends up. (0.00 / 0)

Is the Passaic Valley region of Woodland Park, Totowa, and Little Falls reunited in the 40th District?

Probably still not competitive, but a headache for sure for Scott Rumana.  

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by: Matthew Jordan @ Sun Apr 03, 2011 at 00:59:44 AM UTC

It (0.00 / 0)

seems like those 3 towns will be added to the district along with parts of Morris county, wile parts of Bergan and upper Passaic are removed.

If anything the district remains about the same PVI

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by: GayTeen4Obama @ Sun Apr 03, 2011 at 01:02:04 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Verona and Cedar Grove must stay I'm assuming? (0.00 / 0)

Bringing Woodland Park in helps, and if Bloomingdale is also in, that is another town with a Democratic Mayor.  

Only way you can build in GOP-held districts is by having elected officials on the local level.  

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by: Matthew Jordan @ Sun Apr 03, 2011 at 01:04:23 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Bloomingdale (0.00 / 0)

is not in the district from what I can tell.

And yes Woodland Park (or West Paterson) is in the district now but I assume after an election or two, the Republicans will start to win the town like they always win Little Falls

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by: GayTeen4Obama @ Sun Apr 03, 2011 at 01:06:55 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I disagree. (0.00 / 0)

Woodland Park is a strong Democratic town.  Being in LD40 won't change that.  

Little Falls was always a fringe Democratic town at best.  

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by: Matthew Jordan @ Sun Apr 03, 2011 at 01:16:59 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I (0.00 / 0)

know Woodland Park leans Dem but with both Obama and Corzine winning it by onlu about 100 or so votes how can it be considered to be a "strong" Democratic town?

and I know Little Falls has more registered Dems then GOPers buth over the years it seems to be tilting towards the GOP don't you think?  

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by: GayTeen4Obama @ Sun Apr 03, 2011 at 01:27:31 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

so where does that leave my town (0.00 / 0)

I've been teased about this all day and I'm curious.  I would love to lose Sean Kean.  Not sure if Jen Beck would be any better though.

http://outspokenliberal.blogsp...

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by: tabbycat31 @ Sun Apr 03, 2011 at 01:27:23 AM UTC

Princeton being amputated from the 15th (0.00 / 0)

Looks like true blue Princeton is getting cut off from its friends in Mercer County and getting stuck in the red 16th.

What really ticks me off is that this is some kind of intra-party payback against Reed Gusciora. It's all about the politicians and their petty feuds.

What about the thousands of Princetonians who will no longer have representation in the state house that's compatible with who we are? This really really sucks and so do the people who decided to do this ... and unfortunately, that's the Democrats on the redistricting committee.

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by: danpreston @ Sun Apr 03, 2011 at 13:13:19 PM UTC

Don't be so quick about the 16th (0.00 / 0)

I woke up this morning to find that Flemington Borough, along with Raritan, Readington and Delaware Townships in Hunterdon County were in this new 16th.

This constitutes the bulk of the registered Democrats in the county.

I think -- and it's early -- that we have an excellent chance in this new district to elect Dems.


Jeffrey Doshna

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by: Jeff Doshna @ Sun Apr 03, 2011 at 17:05:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Gusciora is being too quick (0.00 / 0)

According to PolitickerNJ.com, Reed is looking to pull a Girgenti.

"I plan on being a candidate in the 15th District," Gusciora said. "I just hope that through the process Princeton will remain in the capital district. Fortunately, they could not carve out my faith, family and supporters I have made over my 16 years in the legislature."

It is a shame, because with Princeton in the mix, I would have thought that Reed, backed by strong Assembly candidates could have had a very good chance to unseat Kip Bateman, which would have been especially sweet, considering Bateman's vote on marriage equality.

Maybe Rush Holt should run for State Senate.  Being a part-time legislator would enable him to rededicate himself as a scientist.  Either way, it makes me wish that my town of Dunellen had been placed into the 16th.  As much as I like Scutari, Stender, and Green, I would prefer to live in a competitive district.

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by: Bertin Lefkovic @ Sun Apr 03, 2011 at 17:37:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yeah (0.00 / 0)

With South Brunswick and Princeton in the mix, the 16th should be a competitive district now.

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by: 12mileseastofTrenton @ Sun Apr 03, 2011 at 19:16:40 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Howdy, neighbor (0.00 / 0)

Actually, I don't live in South Brunswick anymore, so maybe we're not neighbors. I'm gathering data now on the district to see based on 2008 and 2009 results whether it looks to be competitive.

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by: Dvd Avins @ Sun Apr 03, 2011 at 17:38:43 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

2007 data would be better (0.00 / 0)

Statewide elections in 2008 and 2009 will skew the data.  2003 and 2007 data will give you a good sense of what we can expect to see in 2011.  I could be wrong, but I think that the 16th will have a lot of potential.  I wonder if Kip Bateman will try to get Scott Sipprelle to run for State Assembly in an effort to reduce Democratic margins in Princeton.

I hope that Reed Gusciora reconsiders going the carpetbagger route and focuses on a State Senate run against Kip Bateman.  If he and two strong Assembly candidates can run a close race this year, they will be in a very good position to win in 2013, especially if Barbara Buono is the Democratic nominee, with turnout increasing as a result of the Governor's race.

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by: Bertin Lefkovic @ Sun Apr 03, 2011 at 18:27:48 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

For 2011 or for whole decade? (0.00 / 0)

I think 2007 would indeed be a better predictor for 2011, and I doubt it would look especially good. To see the potential over the decade, I think top-of-ticket races are better because local incumbents and reputations will change over time.

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by: Dvd Avins @ Sun Apr 03, 2011 at 19:44:03 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

disagree (0.00 / 0)

Much of what will occur over the next decade will be determined by what happens in 2011 and 2013.  After that, the power of incumbency will take over.

Best to get a good baseline for 2011 and build on it from there.  I would love to see Reed Gusciora at the top of a ticket with Ed Potosnak and either Joey Novick or Jeff Doshna.

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by: Bertin Lefkovic @ Mon Apr 04, 2011 at 05:00:11 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

There's already a candidate (0.00 / 0)

Marie Corfield is already running. And a South Brunswick Councilman screened for the open Assembly spot when Linda Greenspan moved to the Senate. He may be interested again, I don't know.

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by: Dvd Avins @ Mon Apr 04, 2011 at 11:35:19 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Princeton (0.00 / 0)

I guess they figure it has more of a "community of interest" with the 16th, economically, than with the 15th.  ;)

Depending on the new configuration of the 16th, it's possible that a Democrat would have an outside shot of winning.

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by: 12mileseastofTrenton @ Sun Apr 03, 2011 at 14:14:12 PM UTC

What did Joe Malone do (0.00 / 0)

To get booted from his own district?  He has been a stalwart blowhard for the GOP for years.  Maybe all of that blabber wore it's welcome out?

"Only a fool would follow a bully"

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by: brendanod @ Sun Apr 03, 2011 at 14:15:47 PM UTC

Joe Malone (0.00 / 0)

Is he not an educator?

"Discrimination caused by ignorance and fear is a tax on human progress" - Barbra Casbar Siperstein

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by: Babs NJSD @ Sun Apr 03, 2011 at 20:03:48 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

He's a good guy (0.00 / 0)

he's good for the dems and keeps 'em honest.  BurlCo is a roung and tumble county though.  i think a lot of folks underestimate how nasty BurlCo GOP can get.  

activist for hire.

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by: Jay Lassiter @ Sun Apr 03, 2011 at 20:30:57 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Malone (0.00 / 0)

Word is that he might retire.

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by: 12mileseastofTrenton @ Mon Apr 04, 2011 at 12:32:15 PM UTC

[ Parent ]