Battleground Congressional Districts moving back towards the Democrats

by: Hopeful

Wed Mar 23, 2011 at 04:13:19 PM EDT

A new survey by Democracy Corps in 50 of the most competitive battleground Congressional districts - nearly all of which gave a majority to Obama in the last presidential election - shows the new Republican majority very much in play in 2012.

The Republican incumbents in these districts, 35 of them freshmen, remain largely unknown and appear very vulnerable in 2012 (depending on redistricting).  In fact, these incumbents are in a weaker position than Democratic incumbents were even in late 2009, or Republican incumbents were in 2007 in comparable surveys conducted by Democracy Corps.

The polled districts include the old NJ-3 (Jon Runyan) and NJ-7 (Leonard Lance). Now, we don't know what the new districts will be, and New Jersey is losing a seat, so it's too early to worry about details. What is clear through this and other polls that the Republican extremists in the House (and their counterparts at the state level) are alienating independents, exciting Democrats, and all-in-all building a voting record that will be difficult to defend.  

The key though is that Democrats -- and progressives -- must recruit credible challengers while the window of opportunity is still open. LoBiondo's district is very favorable to Democrats, but giving him a pass year after year has left him seemingly invulnerable. Democrats can't afford to make the same mistake with Runyan.