| We can have some fun looking at the results of a statewide poll of New Jersey by Public Policy Polling. Along with approval ratings for the major figures, they provide head-to-head numbers for future races. There are 520 "New Jersey voters" for an estimated margin of error of 4.3%.
2013 Race for Governor: Chris Christie 42, Cory Booker 42.
Those numbers are actually misleadingly good for Christie though. 21% of Democrats are undecided in such a match up while only 7% of Republicans are. That's probably a reflection of 38% of voters in the state still not having an opinion about Booker.
2012 Race for Senator: Bob Menendez 47, Lou Dobbs 35.
Frankly I've been worried about Dobbs so I'm happy to see this.
2012 Race for Senator: Bob Menendez 45, Kim Guadagno 30.
PPP notes that while Dobbs is unpopular, Guadagno is mainly unknown.
2012 Race for Senator: Bob Menendez 41, Tom Kean Jr. 39.
Uh-oh. Bad numbers for the re-match. On the other hand, PPP observes that 51% of voters don't know who Kean is. I'll go further and suggest that if so many don't know who he is, some must think Kean Jr. is his popular father -- even though I wouldn't have guessed it.
2012 Race for President: Barack Obama 55, Chris Christie 38.
Obama may be weak at the moment but it seems that even a local Republican would get crushed. Gingrich, Huckabee, and Romney all do about the same as Christie.
2012 Race for President: Barack Obama 59, Sarah Palin 29
I had to put Palin's numbers in.
To the degree you take such early polls seriously, we can conclude that New Jersey's 14 electoral votes will go to Obama without a battle, Menendez might be vulnerable, and Christie can be defeated. |
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