BlueJersey Blogger Jeff Gardner to challenge for NJ Legislature?

Hmmm, let me see... (4.00 / 4)

no comment?

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by: Jeff Gardner @ Mon Dec 27, 2010 at 20:27:41 PM UTC

No pressure but (0.00 / 0)

if Jeff runs, I will register as a Democrat again.  

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by: Thurman Hart @ Mon Dec 27, 2010 at 20:34:57 PM UTC

Great (0.00 / 0)

News!

Girgenti without a doubt needs to be challenged for a second term and if Assemblywoman Pou won't do it then Chairman Gardner should.

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by: GayTeen4Obama @ Mon Dec 27, 2010 at 22:10:39 PM UTC

Jeff would have big funding and tons of volunteers (4.00 / 2)

Guaranteed.

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by: Steven Goldstein, Garden State Equality chair @ Mon Dec 27, 2010 at 23:49:45 PM UTC

A national story? (4.00 / 1)

I can see this becoming a significant national story (especially in an off-year election and a dearth of significant political campaigns).  I'm sure polical blogs like Huffington and TPM will pick it up to showcase marriage equality as an important political issue.  Especially coming at a time when the debate will start over repealing DOMA.  Jeff Gardner's victory will force Democrats nationwide, and even the few moderate Republicans left in Congress, to sit up and take notice.

I'd also venture that tons of money will be pouring in from national groups in support of ME.

I can't see any congressional dems endorsing Girgenti, but I can see some progressive dems like Barney Frank endorsing his challenger.  This race should draw alot of attention, a healthy debate, and a large turnout in the primary should favor the challenger.

http://christiegonewild.blogsp...

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by: ken bank @ Tue Dec 28, 2010 at 02:15:28 AM UTC

It will be interesting to see... (0.00 / 0)

...whether or not Hawthorne remains in LD35.

...whether or not Currie, Pascrell, and the PCDO support Girgenti or choose to go in a different direction in LD35.

If Hawthorne remains in LD35, I predict that Sweeney and the Norcross machine will want to have a dog in this fight, and unless that dog is Girgenti, my guess is that they recruit someone from Paterson to take Girgenti on, which would create an interesting conundrum for Jeff.

If Norcross and Sweeney through their relationship with Adubato and Oliver place enough pressure on Currie, they could get their slate of candidates the party endorsement in Passaic County.  If they are backing someone from Paterson instead of Girgenti, then they would probably want Jeff to run for Assembly on that slate.  

The big question is whether or not Jeff wants to get into bed with the bosses or not, especially since that would mean making peace with Sweeney, who abstained on the marriage equality vote and placed pressure on other Senators to do the same or worse, vote no.

As much as I dislike Norcross, Sweeney, et al, I wouldn't hold it against Jeff if he agreed to run with their slate of candidates.  Sadly, these are the kinds of tough choices that otherwise good and progressive people like Jeff are forced to make to be able to be effective advocates for their issues of concern, especially in the absence of an organized progressive community that can provide a legitimate alternative to the Democratic establishment in our state.

As much as I would love to see Jeff run on a progressive slate of candidates against both a Girgenti slate and a boss-backed slate, it is hard to imagine such a slate having access to the resources required to win a three-way race.  The ideal scenario is one where the bosses back Girgenti, enabling Jeff to run on a Paterson-based progressive insurgent slate, but I don't think that this scenario is very likely as the bosses are too smart to back a has-been like Girgenti, when they can just as easily buy an ambitious pol from Paterson.

That said, an even more likely scenario is one where they (the bosses) cleave Hawthorne from LD35 and place it into LD38, setting up a primary election standoff between Girgenti and Bob Gordon or LD40, setting up a general election standoff between Girgenti and Kevin O'Toole.  Either scenario allows the bosses to choose a Paterson pol, if not an entire slate of Paterson pols and gain a stake in Passaic County politics for the next decade.

Of the two scenarios, I like the one that puts Hawthorne in LD38 the best, especially if this new LD38 no longer contains Fort Lee, where Joan Voss resides, creating an Assembly opening on the Gordon slate that could be offered to Jeff. Girgenti would then be forced to find a couple of ambitious pols from Fair Lawn and Paramus respectively to run with him.

However, if Hawthorne is placed in LD40, it simply adds a Republican-leaning town to an already heavily Republican district.  My guess is that if this happens, Girgenti will retire and Jeff will probably have a very good chance at being asked to run for State Senate in what would be an extremely difficult race to win.  The only other LD40 scenario where Jeff could have a remote chance of being elected to a State Assembly seat is if both Hawthorne and Dick Codey's Fairfield are placed in the district.  

Codey has committed to run for re-election no matter what district he is placed in and has a $2 million warchest from which to wage what will most likely be the last major battle of his career.  Convincing Girgenti to retire so that he doesn't have to spend any of that money on a primary election will be easy since Girgenti definitely doesn't have the guts to run against O'Toole in LD40, much less run against Codey in a primary election.

It would be very smart of Codey to pick Jeff and possibly someone like Joan Waks or John Bartlett from Wayne to run with him.  It would still be a longshot in a district like LD40, no doubt, but the combination of Codey's and Waks' name recognition and popularity combined with Jeff's netroots appeal could be enough to pull off an upset.

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by: Bertin Lefkovic @ Tue Dec 28, 2010 at 04:57:07 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

LD40 (4.00 / 1)

O'Toole/Russo/Rumana vs. Codey/Gardner/Bartlett ? I can't help but believe that the Republicans would win this thing quit easily especially if the district is centered in Wayne and suburban Passaic county  

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by: GayTeen4Obama @ Tue Dec 28, 2010 at 19:17:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

definition of a longshot (0.00 / 0)

As much as I like John, someone like Joan Waks would probably be able to get more Democratic votes out of Wayne, but any three Democrats would have a tough time winning that district.

My only point was that Codey/Waks/Gardner could bring enough to the table to have a chance at pulling off an upset.  Undoubtedly, I think that they would have a better chance than any other threesome at winning in that district.

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by: Bertin Lefkovic @ Tue Dec 28, 2010 at 21:11:03 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The (4.00 / 1)

main problem which seems to exist is to how to win in a district that is dominated in Wayne without relying on a major scandal plaguing the republicans. Democrats seem to have a 40 to 44% ceiling in Wayne and unless you're Pascrell running against a no name then it's almost impossible to win.  

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by: GayTeen4Obama @ Tue Dec 28, 2010 at 21:45:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Who have the Democrats run... (0.00 / 0)

...in LD40 over the last decade?  How much have these candidates raised and spent?

Compare that to having a former Acting Governor who is very popular amongst Democrats, independents, and even Republicans at the top of the ticket with $2MM to spend and whatever the margins might have been over the last decade, they will be much smaller in 2011 if Codey is redistricted into LD40.

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by: Bertin Lefkovic @ Tue Dec 28, 2010 at 23:02:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

You (4.00 / 1)

have a point there but even when John Bartlet ran in the second ward back in 2008 and did alot of campaigning and spend alot of money on mailers/etc he couldn't even break 41%. Wayne is just an extremely tough town for a Democrat.  

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by: GayTeen4Obama @ Wed Dec 29, 2010 at 00:25:48 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yes it is, but... (0.00 / 0)

...with all due respect to John, who is a great guy who I have known and liked (even though he was a Kerry supporter in 2004 and an Edwards supporter in 2008 - yes, he has bad taste in Presidential candidates) since I first met him in 2004, I also know that he has not lived in Wayne a long time and will probably have to run a few times before he develops the traction that he will need in order to win.

This is why someone like Joan Waks who has run and won in Wayne would give a Codey/Waks/Gardner team an outside chance of pulling off the biggest general election upset this state has seen since never, because our rigged state doesn't allow underdogs to have a chance to win.

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by: Bertin Lefkovic @ Wed Dec 29, 2010 at 01:38:07 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I (4.00 / 1)

never said I disliked John, on the contrary I even helped with the campaign a little back in 2008 (this from a Kerry 2004 supporter and a strong Hillary supporter in 2008) but I'm merely speaking of the strong conservative tilt of Wayne.  

What election in Wayne has Waks won? I know she ran for council but she lost that race.  

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by: GayTeen4Obama @ Wed Dec 29, 2010 at 01:50:41 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I never said that you disliked John... (0.00 / 0)

...either.

I could have sworn that Joan Waks was a Councilperson in Wayne at some point in the past.  I could be wrong.

Yes, Wayne is very Republican, but I never got the sense that it was extremely conservative.  I could be wrong about Codey's and Jeff's chances in LD40 if that's where Fairfield and Hawthorne are placed during redistricting.

Hopefully for their sakes, that doesn't happen, but considering the degree to which both Codey and Girgenti are on the outside of the redistricting process, looking in, I think that it is very possible.

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by: Bertin Lefkovic @ Wed Dec 29, 2010 at 02:34:24 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

wow that is a ridiculously long reply (2.50 / 2)

1000+ words?  really bertin? are we supposed to read this or simply be impressed at the volume?

activist for hire.

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by: Jay Lassiter @ Wed Dec 29, 2010 at 11:30:50 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Sorry... (4.00 / 1)

...if you can only handle reading 140 characters at a time, Jay.  If you want, I will break it down into twitspeak for you.

Will H stay in LD35?

If so, will JC,BPJr,+AM&NM4E back G or PFlunkie?  Will J run with PFlunkie and become JFlunkie?  If so, it's OK.

If H goes to LD38, Gi vs Gn+J = :)

If H goes to LD40, O'T/R/R vs C/J/J = :(

I hope that was easier for you to understand, Jay.  I am amazed that progressives have the nerve to make fun of Sarah Palin for butchering the English language (RE: refudiategate) when they are no longer willing or able to read it themselves.

It is good to know that GayTeen4Obama is not intimidated by a lot of words and is capable of reading, reflecting, and responding intelligently. I guess it says something about the future versus the present.

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by: Bertin Lefkovic @ Wed Dec 29, 2010 at 15:05:07 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

If (0.00 / 0)

this were English, math, or science class then trust me I would have given up after the first sentence. But since it involves politics then I could read a whole book and not be intimidated.  

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by: GayTeen4Obama @ Wed Dec 29, 2010 at 16:58:43 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Jay, Give Our Friend Bertin A Break! lol (2.00 / 1)

That's the way he thinks/talks, we should all be used to it by now.   Though I am sorry for you if you had to scroll through all that on a blackberry!  ;-)

PS  Bertin, using the rating system just because Jay complained was silly imho so I gave Jay a "4" for free speech.  

Your well written response was sufficient.

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by: Nick Lento @ Mon Jan 03, 2011 at 05:36:02 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Unproductive seemed like the right rating to me. (4.00 / 1)

How else would you describe a comment about the length of a comment rather than its content?  I have no sympathy for anyone who uses a crackberry or a dumbphone to read this or any other website.

A rating is hardly a restriction of speech, but you are free to give him whatever rating you want.  I gave his cooment the rating that I thought it deserved and I did the same for yours as well. It's not like I gave him a troll rating.

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by: Bertin Lefkovic @ Mon Jan 03, 2011 at 17:42:48 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Do you feel better now? LOL n/t (0.00 / 0)

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by: Nick Lento @ Mon Jan 03, 2011 at 18:38:56 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The (4.00 / 2)

biggest question out there is most likely not whether Jeff runs or not but rather what the new district will look like.  

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by: GayTeen4Obama @ Tue Dec 28, 2010 at 02:31:55 AM UTC

Jeff: GO FOR IT!!!!! (0.00 / 0)

Don't be discouraged by the oddsmakers or the pundits.

My prediction:  If Gardner runs, Gardner wins!!!  (And I'll back that up with some volunteer time!)

PS To Bertin, Don't underestimate the intelligence of the electorate.   They are hungry for candidates with integrity and independence and competence and intelligence.   Jeff fits the bill!

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by: Nick Lento @ Mon Jan 03, 2011 at 05:40:21 AM UTC

I agree and disagree (0.00 / 0)

I agree that Jeff should run, but there are a lot of moving parts and where they click into place will have more to say about Jeff's chances of running and winning than anything else, including but not limited to the intelligence of the electorate, which I think that you overestimate as much if not more than I underestimate them.  Barack Obama and huge Democratic majorities were elected in 2008 by many of the same voters who enabled the Republicans to regain control of the House and dramatically cut into the Democratic majority in the Senate.

Many of these voters were dumb enough to be swept up by Obama's rhetoric, which has been proven to be "just words" in 2008 and they were dumb enough to be swept up by the rhetoric of the TPM in 2010 or were so disenchanted with Obama's performance that they did not vote, which is an understandable, but still ridiculously stupid response.

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by: Bertin Lefkovic @ Mon Jan 03, 2011 at 17:57:56 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

If This, then that...but maybe something else..... (0.00 / 0)

...on the other hand.  Duhhhh.

You missed your calling Bertin, you would have made a great systems analyst/programmer!   LOL

I stick with my simple and clear opinion.  If Gardner runs, he wins.   I trust Jeff's judgment....and will support him all the way to Trenton if he chooses to fight for it!

The facts on the ground are just that.  It's people who find creative intelligent and courageous ways to CHANGE those facts that make a difference in this world.
 

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by: Nick Lento @ Mon Jan 03, 2011 at 18:45:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

What world do you live in, Nick? (0.00 / 0)

Were you vacationing at Disney World with Chris Christie?  If so, you spent far too much time in Fantasyland.

I think that a more realistic position, based in fact, is that Jeff cannot win unless he runs, so he should run if for no other reason than to ensure that Girgenti has to answer for his vote in opposition to the marriage equality bill. That said, I am sure that if Jeff chooses to run, he will have many compelling reasons to do so in addition to the one that I have mentioned.

When was the last time in our lifetime that people found creative, intelligent, and courageous ways to change anything that made a difference in this world?  Howard Dean came the closest to doing this, but all that his revolutionary Presidential campaign and 50-state strategy accomplished was the eventual election of a President who has proven to be just a tanner and thinner version of Bill Clinton and huge majorities in the House and Senate that together couldn't pass any legislation worth the paper that it is printed on.

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by: Bertin Lefkovic @ Mon Jan 03, 2011 at 22:54:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

There (0.00 / 0)

is no doubt that Girgenti deserves to be primaried for his vote. Because of him (and every other opponent of equal rights) NJ will not see marriage equality in at least 3 to 7 years (depending on whether Christie is re-elected or not). We had a chance to protect the American dream when Corzine was Governor and because of Christie and the opponents of equal marriage rights, that dream was given a punch in the face.  

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by: GayTeen4Obama @ Tue Jan 04, 2011 at 02:29:21 AM UTC

[ Parent ]