0 users logged onTips: BlueJerseyDotCom (AIM) |      

Log In
Sign Up | Forgot Password?

Election Night Hangover Open Thread

by: Rosi Efthim

Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 02:32:35 AM EDT



Let's pretend this is the News Roundup. Better yet, make it an Open Thread ...

The picture below is cold reality, but I am not going to waste my time mourning. New Jersey battled back. Good candidates fell all over the country Tuesday. In New Jersey, we held on by our teeth.

The big loss was John Adler, in a series of self-inflicted wounds. We knew months ago when Adler tried to play both sides on health care reform, that he'd sacrificed his base. We knew when Jane Roh's Courier Post account of the mechanics of Peter DeStefano's sham Tea Party candidacy that the Adler campaign had been pulled down the rabbit hole by the Camden County Democratic Committee. We can't be stung by that loss anymore, we grieved it a long time ago. But what fresh hell Jon Runyan will be, we'll leave to the light of day, or at least until tonight's Glenlivet wears off.  

We held on to two key House progressives in the NJ delegation that we might have lost (Pallone in NJ-6 and Holt in NJ-12). These were the real nail-biters of the night. Anna Little was New Jersey's only Tea Party candidate running a viable challenger race. With Frank Pallone's win, she is not the only loser. The Tea Party itself is delegitimized in NJ, juiceless unless they regroup and figure out how to appeal to the citizenry without promising to ruin the environment, erase government and create false enemies to be terrified of. Twelve years ago, the last time the congressional races topped the ticket, Rush Holt won, an unlikely candidate without the flash and sizzle of most smooth-talkers, he was wonky and earnest. This year, the congressional topping the ticket again, science teacher Ed Potosnak ran in adjacent NJ-7, wonky and earnest. He lost - it was always an uphill race. But like Holt (who also lost his first time out), Potosnak should run again. Potosnak never dumbed down his progressivism.

Chris Christie did not have a good night. And that's damn gratifying. GOP candidates Little, Scott Sipprelle, and Tom Goodwin caved. GOP candidate Felix Garcia lost the Passaic Sheriff's race. I'll leave Bergen County to the Bergen scholars on this blog but it's worth noting that Christie would have a hard time claiming GOP's Kathe Donovan's win as County Executive for himself, given that Bergen Grassroots DFA crossed the aisle to back her, too. The state's most heavily-watched legislative special election - overshadowed by Adler drama - was Tom Goodwin's attempt to hold his thin incumbency (appointed in March, to Bill Baroni's vacant seat) against Linda Greenstein. This was a referendum on Christie's short months in office, and it didn't break his way.  LD-14 has both conservatives and a band of resentful public workers. From the beginning, Goodwin hitched his star to Christie; Greenstein was the alternative, the promise of a stronger Democratic Senate. Let her help bring that now.

For the record, there will either not be a News Roundup in the morning, or it will come late. Late. Like a lot of you, I've been up for 24 hours; like more of you, I'm soaked in scotch.

fivethirtyeight's numbers:

election night

Rosi Efthim :: Election Night Hangover Open Thread
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email

Election Night Hangover Open Thread | 31 comments
Red Bank (0.00 / 0)
Good to know I'm not the only crazy still awake. Just got this email from Red Bank municipal chair Ed Zipprich:


We did it again! DFA training paid off --Sharon (Lee)and Kathy (Horgan) handily re-elected and for the first time out as Municipal Chair we carried every Dem on the ballot in Red Bank including Pallone!


It's not a particularly snappy signature, but here's what I think we need in the next NJ Democratic State Chair.  
Fresh Hell (0.00 / 0)
Pallone's win has got to steam Chris Christie something awful.

Redistricting prognosticators: Think this makes it more likely Christie tries to engineer forcing Pallone and Holt to face off, if we lose a congressional seat?

It's not a particularly snappy signature, but here's what I think we need in the next NJ Democratic State Chair.  

Holt v Pallone is possible, but not probable (0.00 / 0)
The key to redistricting will be the people named to the redistricting commissions.  Will Holt and Pallone be represented on the Democratic side or will the commissioners be Adubato/Norcross loyalists.

If incumbents are well-represented on the commission, then incumbency protection will rule the day like it did in 2000 and Runyan will most likely be redistricted into Andrews or Smith's districts.

However, if the commissioners are Adubato/Norcross loyalists and they have cut a backroom deal with Christie to have a more Republican-friendly congressional map and a more Democratic-friendly legislative map, then Holt, Pallone, or both could be vulnerable.

My sense is that Pallone is somewhat more of an insider than Holt and is more likely to be protected.  If I am right about this, then I think that the most likely scenario is one where Holt is put into a Republican-leaning district with either Leonard Lance or Chris Smith with a matchup against Lance and a return to something like Holt's original district being the more likely of the two.

[ Parent ]
Backroom deal (0.00 / 0)
That could only be the result of a backroom betrayal.  Why just not let the independent member of the commission decide between two competing plans?  Democrats should draw up a plan that protects incumbents of both parties, save for Smith.  Throw him in a district with Runyan.  Extend Andrews north and south, giving him Cherry Hill, the rest of Gloucester County and a couple of southern Burlington towns.  And extend Lo Biondo well into Ocean county.
[ Parent ]
Why not? (0.00 / 0)
I can only base my predictions on what I know, which is that in the post-2000 redistricting, there were no competing congressional plans.  Democrats and Republicans agreed to a deal that made Democratic districts more Democratic and Republican districts more Republican.

This included a particularly anti(small-d)democratic swap of unfriendly constituencies between Mike Ferguson's 7th District and Rush Holt's 12th District, which made two of the most competitive districts in the state quite uncompetitive.

2010 will be more complicated, because the state is going to lose a Congressman with redistricting.  It will be harder for Democrats and Republicans to play the incumbency protection game unless the Republicans are willing to cut Jon Runyan loose after one term, which is entirely possible.

The only other variables in the equation are Christie and Sweeney.  In the post-2000 legislative redistricting, there were two competing plans and even after the "independent" member of the commission chose the Democratic plan, the Republicans challenged the decision in court, using (get ready to laugh) the Voting Rights Act, arguing that the unpacking of minority-majority districts disenfranchised minorities (as if they ever cared about such things).  Their case was laughed out of court, but it could provide us some insight into what we might see going forward.

The Democrats and Republicans may very well have competing plans in both the congressional and legislative redistricting commissions, but if Christie's focus at the moment is more on elevating his national profile than the 2011 elections, there could be a compromise between him and Sweeney that could lead to a more Republican-friendly congressional map and a more Democratic-friendly legislative map.

Either way, I believe that the outcome of redistricting will give us a tremendous amount of insight into whether Christie's national ambitions are geared more towards 2012 or 2016.  If he is patient and willing to build slowly towards a 2016 Presidential run, then he will be far more focused on New Jersey and the 2011 elections than the internecine battle over the G.O.P.'s Presidential nomination.  However, if he is going to roll the dice on a 2012 run, it will most likely be at the expense of Republicans in Trenton in 2011.

If I had to predict, I would say that he and the people around him will be smart enough to build towards 2016 and focus their efforts on fighting Democrats in Trenton with the legislative redistricting fight being the next battle in that effort.  If that happens, then incumbency protection will most likely rule the day, once again, on the congressional side and Jon Runyan will most likely be the odd man out, having the choice to run against Rob Andrews or Bob Menendez.  Given that choice, I predict that he chooses to take on Menendez, even if it means having to go through Lou Dobbs.

[ Parent ]
Difference with 2000 (0.00 / 0)
As you say, NJ didn't lose a seat that time around.  Now they will.  I don't see them compromising because someone will have to take a hit.  Dems will want it to be the new guy, while Republicans will want to lump either Pallone and Holt or Rothman and Pascrell into one district.  I think the independent member will be settling this one.
[ Parent ]
not necessarily (0.00 / 0)
That would be a gamble.  If Democrats create a Democratic map and Republicans create a Republican map, only one can win.  That's the roll of the dice that the Republicans played and as a result, they lost control of the legislature for a decade.

On the congressional side, they cut a mutually acceptable incumbency protection deal and everyone except for Ferguson and Saxton survived the entire decade.  Lance replaced Ferguson and for all intents and purposes, Runyan replaced Saxton with Adler's two years in office being relatively irrelevant.

If the members of the congressional redistricting commission are more aligned with the congressmen themselves than Adubato/Norcross and Christie, then I think the incumbency protection approach will be utilized once again with Runyan being the odd man out.  

Republicans controlled the House after the 2000 elections and it didn't affect how NJ's Republican congressmen approached redistricting.  As much as they would like to retain their majority after the 2012 elections, each of them are more interested in retaining their own seats and would have no qualms about sacrificing one of their own, particularly a lightweight like Runyan, to ensure that they can.

That said, the only exception that I can envision to incumbency protection redux is Christie making a backroom deal with Adubato/Norcross.  If Christie wants to make his mark nationally, he would have no qualms sacrificing any chance that the Republicans in Trenton might have to regain control over the Assembly and the Senate if he can claim credit for taking out a Democratic Congressman or two.

As is, he is undoubtedly going to claim credit for Runyan's victory over Adler and if he is able to take out Rush Holt (by restoring his old district and forcing him to run against Leonard Lance) and Bill Pascrell, Jr. (or Steve Rothman) by forcing them to run against one another (or Pascrell, Jr. to retire, which would be the likely result) while creating an open Republican-leaning district, he would single-handedly change a 7-6 Democratic majority to a 7-5 Republican majority.

As I have written elsewhere, I do not think that a deal like this is likely as I think that Christie et al are going to be more focused on 2016 than 2012, knowing that they can maintain his 2012 VP profile by continuing to be successful in moving his agenda forward and that requires the Republicans in Trenton to retake the Assembly and the Senate.

If I am right about this, then the post-2010 redistricting will mirror the post-2000 redistricting with the congressional commissioners booting Runyan and giving the Democrats a 7-5 majority and the legislative commissioners will go to war with the independent commissioner casting the deciding vote.

[ Parent ]
Christie (0.00 / 0)
Watch for Christie to take credit for his "friend" Jon Runyan's victory.

Blog: http://www.deciminyan.org
Great Headline (4.00 / 1)
Running as an Independent in Oakland, NJ, the entire 0 budget campaign was like one long hangover....but I don't need to be elected to make a difference,  http://governmentaccessportal.... ...hope others believe the same
Charlie McCormick (0.00 / 0)
Way to bounce back, Charlie. Good luck on the new venture.  

It's not a particularly snappy signature, but here's what I think we need in the next NJ Democratic State Chair.  
[ Parent ]
Thank you to EVERYONE who helped (4.00 / 1)
keep Pallone and Holt in Congress. You are angels!  That was awesome news to hear this morning.  Since "my" (I say that because he will never truly represent me) Congressman is Scott Garrett, I have to live vicariously through the folks who live in real districts with real representation.  Thank you for keeping in the fine men who represent all of us!

One Vote.  Yours.  It really does matter.
thank you Blue Jersey (0.00 / 0)
For maintaining sanity in the state.  And thanks for all the work you've done to hold onto Pallone and Holt's seats. In a normal year I would have helped but instead braved the sea of red otherwise known as Kentucky (where we lost the senate race but narrowly held onto the 6th district congressional seat).

Thank you Blue Jersey for not making me come home to Anna Little representing me.  

Now onto the 2011 elections and to find a good legislative district to organize.  (My own would be nice.)

http://outspokenliberal.blogsp...

[ Parent ]
tabbycat31 (0.00 / 0)
Aw, shucks.

We're glad the good voters of NJ-6 & 12 know dedication and good representation when they see it.

Welcome back, tabbycat!

It's not a particularly snappy signature, but here's what I think we need in the next NJ Democratic State Chair.  

[ Parent ]
Menendez needs to start working now (0.00 / 0)
He has always had weak poll numbers and Lou Dobbs or Tom Kean Jr are credible candidates waiting in the wings.

Menendez should win but there is nothing to take for granted. Who knows but most economists believe that the Republican's Houses policies will not aid recovery, so voters will still be angry.

Frank LoBiondo Record and Jon Runyan Watch

I think that Tom Kean Jr. will wait until 2014... (0.00 / 0)
...or wait to run for Governor in 2017.  If the Republicans regain control over the Assembly and Senate in 2011, retain that control in 2013, and retain the Governorship in 2013, I don't think that Tom Kean Jr. will bother raising money for a Senate run when he can focus on his gubernatorial aspirations in 2017.

Also, if given the choice between running against Bob Menendez during a high turnout Presidential election cycle in 2012 and running against Frank Lautenberg or the winner of a wide open and hard-fought Senatorial primary election during a much lower turnout cycle in 2014, I believe that Kean Jr. will wait until 2014.

I think that Lou Dobbs is a good bet to run in the 2012 Republican primary as a Tea Party candidate against Jon Runyan, who is an even better bet to be the Republican establishment candidate after using his first and only term in the House casting loyal votes, raising a ton of money, and having his district redistricted out from under him.

[ Parent ]
just so I understand (0.00 / 0)
You're predicting Runyan vs. Dobbs for the Republican Senate nomination.

Frank LoBiondo Record and Jon Runyan Watch
[ Parent ]
Yes, if... (0.00 / 0)
...I am right about Runyan being redistricted out of his congressional seat.
[ Parent ]
ah, okay (0.00 / 0)
I understand now. Otherwise I don't think he would want to move on so quickly or that Republicans would want to risk the seat.


Frank LoBiondo Record and Jon Runyan Watch
[ Parent ]
Lets give Passaic County some love..... (4.00 / 3)
Huge victory by Sheriff-Elect Richard Berdnik, Freeholder Terry Duffy, and Freeholder Pat Lepore.  We held off the disaster that was Scott Rumana controlling the Sheriff's Department and Freeholder Board.  
Agree (0.00 / 0)
Even tho my township council D candidates - 1 re-elect and 1 elect - got creamed.

And Terry Duffy is from my town.  I don't know the voter breakdown, but if people here voted for a native son, there sure ain't no coattails.  

[ Parent ]
West Milford. (0.00 / 0)
Councilman Bob Nolan rode Freeholder Duffy's coattails in his last two elections - winning both times. Just a tough year for Democrats up-and-down the ticket.  
[ Parent ]
Interesting (0.00 / 0)
You are better schooled in local politics than I.  So let me know how Nolan flew in on Duffy's coattails.  (Short version.)

Our town has horrifically high taxes.  I have found Nolan to go over budgets with a fine toothed comb in order to cut any expenditures that seem to be wasteful.  He seems to be more knowedgeabke and more articulate on the issues than others similarly situated.

Our R's are loudmouthed airheads.  So much so that R honchas such as Pat Wentzel and Maria Harkey have denounced them.  One jerk shouted down a HS student who was talking about a green approach to issues.

And most folks here, whether D or R, don't have much use for County government.  It serves 2 purposes: pave the county roads and give us Green Acres money.

[ Parent ]
Courier News Editorial - Christie's BAD Decision to Nix the Tunnel (0.00 / 0)
Many people may have missed this editorial yesterday while canvassing or pollwatching.  

http://www.mycentraljersey.com...

Your Fault Rosi (0.00 / 0)
It's your fault Rosi for any losses NJ D's incurred.

Win or lose, you chose to drink that elitist "furrin likker" like Glenlivit.  Whatsamatter with Jack D?  And you know the old saw: the way to cure a hangover is to keep drinking.  (I wouldn't change to native stuff in midstream, however.)

OK, I'm making a lame attempt at humor.  On the whole, NJ didn't fare that badly.  We seemed to lose more on the local level, which can hurt constituents as badly as any loss on the state or national level.  But hang in the Ed P. and Mr. L. - your time will come.

Obviously, I'm more distraught about the national scene - especially the loss of Russ Feingold.  And our resident troll, Speedy Kills, should move to PA where the newly electeds will be more to his liking. Maybe he can wite something nice on PA-Red, or whatever their blog's name is.

Speaker Bohner?  Asm Runyon?

I'm gonna grab me some white lightning.

Anyways, the prognositcators, pundits and purveyors of wisdom will now proceed to tell Obama how to deal with Sens. Rubio, Paul and Toomey.  

I say let Bohner deal with them.

to heck with Glenlivit or Jack D (0.00 / 0)
Last night and today and the next two years are going to require nothing less than absinthe or a total lobotomy.  Take your pick.
[ Parent ]
Clearly, my fault. (0.00 / 0)
Thanks for the laugh, SmartyJones. Yeah, I didn't bring the scotch, it simply appeared on the table. And it was all furrin' likker: Glenlivet, Jamesons and Bushmills.

Speaker Boehner. Got a few weeks to get ready to deal with that one. Think we should treat him with the same respect the GOP showed Speaker Pelosi?  

It's not a particularly snappy signature, but here's what I think we need in the next NJ Democratic State Chair.  

[ Parent ]
Scobeyville's finest (0.00 / 0)
If you're worried about drinking imported poteen, maybe you should try this:

http://www.lairdandcompany.com...

Made in America's oldest distillery, right in Monmouth Co.

[ Parent ]
Clearly (0.00 / 0)
Pay-to-Play.  Lobbyists were currying favor with you and your leftist pseudo-transparency efforts.  Tho, I admit they have good taste.

Boehner cried last night.  The best thing I heard was Rachel, who said, and I paraphrase, he cries at the opening of a shopping mall.  This, after she decimated Evan Byah.

That's why we need BJ.  Like Rachel, we (OK youse guys) need to be an antidote to the bullpucky that abounds.

[ Parent ]
The Republican-Tea Party will overreach (0.00 / 0)
There will be a backlash against Christie in 2012 for failing to dig the tunnel - 44,000 jobs - and for firing teachers.

Then people will be saying 'when my kids graduated college, $100,000 in debt, thank you very much' and while my house dropped in value, and they looked for a job (for 2 years) they had health care - thanks to Obama's flawed reform bill.

If business owners drop their health care coverage - which "Faux News" claims they will, wall mart style, then that will force a government health care plan. I mean - we are 1 out of 6 people without health insurance and therefore with limited access to health care. What happens when it's 1 out of 5?  Or 1 out of 4?  And remember, people over 65 have Medicare. Poor people have Medicaid. Children under 18 have SCHIP (thanks to Clinton) So it's 49 Million "Middle Class" (or formerly Middle Class) people between 18 and 65. Hello!  

Sustainability: Harnessing processes rather than consuming resources.

One Quick Word About Bergen Election....... (4.00 / 1)
Christie did not make any campaign appearances in Bergen for Kathe Donovan.  He came to one or two private fundraisers. Interesting that he made it to California for Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorino, but didn't get to Bergen for Donovan!
More about the Bergen election later.
I was a coward on Tuesday..... (0.00 / 0)
I couldn't watch the debacle, even on MSNBC. (I did catch a snippet of Michelle Bachman ugh!). It was less painful to watch reruns of "Criminal Minds" (ironic).

I wonder if half the American voting public slept through the last 8 years or if there is a mind altering drug in the drinking water.  But the Dems are not blameless.  They did not do a good job of messaging success and calling out the Repugnicans.

This is going to be a long 2 years.

Election Night Hangover Open Thread | 31 comments
Featured Stories
CD10: Donald Payne Jr. thinks marriage equality needs "more study"
by: Rosi Efthim - May 10
9 Comments
Breaking News - Christie Vetoes Health Exchange Law
by: deciminyan - May 10
9 Comments
Shameless Plug: Do You Live in Bergen County?
by: Senator Loretta Weinberg - May 10
4 Comments

Hate Ads? Make them disappear.
Subscribe:

Blue Jersey Essentials
 EDITORIAL DIRECTOR
 Rosi Efthim

 STAFF WRITERS
 Adam L a/k/a/ clammyc
 Bill Orr
 Deciminyan
 Hopeful
 Jeff Gardner
 Jersey Jazzman
 KendalJames
 Senator Loretta Weinberg
 the_promised_land
 Rosi Efthim

» About | FAQ | In the News
» 
» Tips:
» Front Page RSS Feed
» User Diaries RSS Feed
» Blue Jersey on Twitter » Blue Jersey on Facebook » Blue Jersey T-shirts
ADVERTISEMENT

Blog Roll
» Alicia Menendez
» Alive and Kickin
» Baristanet
» Blog the Fifth
» Capitol Quickies
» The Center of NJ Life
» Channel Surfing
» Channel Surfing
» Deciminyan
» The Englewood Report
» Frank Lobiondo Record
» Fred Snowflack
» Freedom to Tinker
» Garden State Grapevine
» ClearysNoteBook
» Herb Jackson
» Hoboken Journal
» Hoboken Now
» Jersey Blogs
» Jersey Jazzman
» Middletown Mike
» More Monmouth Musings
» NJ Domestic Partnership
» NJ Politics Unusual
» NJ Voices: Policy Watch
» On Our Radar
» The Opinion Mill
» Other Spaces
» Plainfield Plaintalker
» PolitickerNJ
» Retire Garrett
» Ruins of Trenton
» Senator Ray Lesniak
» Stovetop Diplomacy
» Sustainable Cherry Hill
» The Subversive Garden
» Teaneck Progress
» Trenton Kat
» We Don't Need Permission
» Xpatriated Texan

Cartoons
» M.e. Cohen
» Jimmy Margulies
» Drew Sheneman
» Rob Tornoe
Search




Advanced Search











Ads do not constitute
an endorsement
from Blue Jersey.


Blue Jersey Gear

Visit the Blue Jersey store. T-shirts, bumper stickers & more!


Shirts available in dozens of styles and colors.


Visit the Blue Jersey Store

Contact Us
» Editor: 
» Press releases: 
» Advertising inquiries: 
» Tips:
About Us
» About Blue Jersey
» Blue Jersey in the News
» FAQ/Usage
» 
» RSS Feed

 		Misc Stuff
» Blue Jersey Radio
» Blue Jersey on Twitter
» Facebook Group
» MySpace Page
» NJ Politics 101 Wiki
» Blue Jersey Podcast
» Screaming Carrot Award
» Contribute to Blue Jersey
7946 satisfied users, visits and 0 subpoenas served since Sept 28, 2005
© Blue Jersey, powered by the mighty SoapBlox.
Powered by: SoapBlox