NJ-3: The Party's Over

Tea Party Juggernaut (0.00 / 0)

If it was a "juggernaut" Adler helped to make it.  First he alienated his own base by turning blue dog.  Then he energized his opponents base by, allegedly, "planting" a "Tea Party" candidate and getting caught by an investigative newspaper reporter.  Then he wrote off nearly half his district where he had fewer signs (and mailers) than the so-called "Tea Party" candidate.

Finally, he had a four-to-one cash advantage over his opponent but from what I observed did not spend very much.  The only TV ads I saw were about Runyan's donkeys.

Assuming Adler still has alot of money left in his campaign treasury it will be interesting to see what he does with it.

http://christiegonewild.blogsp...

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by: ken bank @ Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 02:35:52 AM UTC

The party was over (0.00 / 0)

months ago. All that was left was the clattering of dishes and the campaign staff hangover.

It's not a particularly snappy signature, but here's what I think we need in the next NJ Democratic State Chair.  

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by: Rosi Efthim @ Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 03:26:33 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

FIRE PAM LAMPITT!!!!!! (4.00 / 1)

Look at the results from Cherry Hill.  the turnout was abysmal and the margin for adler was an anemic one.

time for Cherry Hill municipal chair Pam Lampitt to accept that she's done a lousy job and QUIT.  There can not possibly be a worse leader than her and her co-chair Rick Shapiro who (yet again) proved that Cherry Hill can spend boatloads of money while underperforming.

activist for hire.

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by: Jay Lassiter @ Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 10:24:57 AM UTC

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some fact based analysis anyone? (0.00 / 0)

Is there any vote based evidence [comparing 08 to this election] that Adler's play for the fiscal conservatives/small government crowd helped him at all?  
  Did the Burlco County candidates fare any better than Adler this year?  
   

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by: nsodano @ Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 04:04:42 AM UTC

Burlco candidates (0.00 / 0)

Belgard and Coltre lost according to the Burlington County Times.

Blog: http://www.deciminyan.org

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by: deciminyan @ Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 04:20:57 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Adler only loses by 6000 votes (0.00 / 0)

About 5000 for independent candidates, though only 3K for DeStefano.

Frank LoBiondo Record and Jon Runyan Watch

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by: Hopeful @ Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 04:08:21 AM UTC

He lost Ocean by 20,000 (4.00 / 1)

He got less than 37% which is bad considering he is an incumbent.  And he didn't do much better than the freeholder candidates who had no money and no organization.

If Adler spent all his $1.4 million he sure didn't spend much of it in Ocean.  It's another big win for Boss George Gilmore and his GOP machine.  Gilmore carried the district for Runyan, and now Runyan owes him big time.

http://christiegonewild.blogsp...

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by: ken bank @ Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 04:55:42 AM UTC

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especially (0.00 / 0)

since they didn't want Runyan in the first place

"Only a fool would follow a bully"

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by: brendanod @ Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 04:58:58 AM UTC

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In Hindsight (0.00 / 0)

we would have better off if Saxton never retired.  The major votes of the past two years probably would have not been that different and we would have retained a moderate republican, not a neuron deficient right winger.  Politics is an amazing game.
Adler's blue dog gamble failed miserably

"Only a fool would follow a bully"

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by: brendanod @ Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 04:43:48 AM UTC

Runyan and Saxton (0.00 / 0)

You're right about "neuron deficient" but I don't think Runyan will vote any differently than Saxton.  He'll follow orders from Boss Gilmore, and Gilmore is not a TNut favorite.  

http://christiegonewild.blogsp...

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by: ken bank @ Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 04:58:46 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

How about Senator Runyan? (0.00 / 0)

I still believe that unless Chris Smith retires, Runyan will be the casualty of redistricting and in return for giving up his seat peacefully, he will get a significant amount of organizational support for a Senatorial run against Bob Menendez in 2012.

The only obstacle that Runyan might have to go through on his way to receiving the Republican nomination is Lou Dobbs, who could have a significant amount of Tea Party support.

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by: Bertin Lefkovic @ Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 05:19:19 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Holt will be redistricted (0.00 / 0)

out of office. Karl Rove has it under control.
It's not difficult. One seat will be eliminated, and Holt had the closest win among the Democrats. Look for part of Smith's district to be attached to Holt's. After a special election Holt will be the odd man out.  

Restore democracy and the Constitution for which it stands.

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by: The Wizard @ Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 09:41:41 AM UTC

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possible, but not as likely (0.00 / 0)

Smith's Hamilton and Holt's Princeton are very close to one another, so it is entirely possible that they could be placed in the same district, but it is very unlikely that the redistricting commission will try to do something like this unless Christie has made a backdoor deal with Sweeney to make the congressional map more Republican-friendly and the legislative map more Democratic-friendly.

If redistricting 2010 is going to be anything like redistricting 2000 was, then incumbency protection will be the name of the game and being the most junior congressman, Runyan is likely to be the odd man out unless Smith decides that it is time for him to retire, which is not outside of the realm of possibility.

Aside from his position on abortion, Smith has historically been better than most Republicans when it comes to issues pertaining to government serving the neediest amongst us, which is antithetical to the TPM.  

If, despite his seniority, Smith feels pushed aside by the new breed of Republicans coming to Washington, he may come to the conclusion that it is time to retire.  It will be interesting to see what kind of relationship develops, if any, between Runyan and Smith.  If Runyan embraces Smith as a mentor, Smith could decide to pass him the torch and retire.  However, if Runyan runs with his fellow freshmen and disrespects Smith in any way, it is possible that the two could find themselves going head to head in a 2012 primary election.

That said, with the Democrats still holding a 7-6 edge in NJ, it is very possible that a Democrat, most likely Holt, will be placed in the same district as a Republican, more likely Leonard Lance than Smith.

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by: Bertin Lefkovic @ Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 12:54:54 PM UTC

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Uhhh..... (0.00 / 0)

I don't see a Senator Runyan anytime soon. I don't think anybody in the Republican Party sees a Senator Runyan anytime soon.

It's not a particularly snappy signature, but here's what I think we need in the next NJ Democratic State Chair.  

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by: Rosi Efthim @ Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 15:10:17 PM UTC

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I am not saying that he is going win. (0.00 / 0)

But I don't foresee anybody of consequence aside from Lou Dobbs wanting to raise/spend the kind of money that will be required to take Bob Menendez on during a high turnout Presidential election cycle.  Any serious Republican candidate will wait until 2014 when turnout will be far lower and the election will cost much less.

If I am right about Runyan being redistricted out of his seat prior to 2012, I believe that he will be offered the chance to run against Menendez and have the opportunity to raise enough money during his first and only term as Congressman to run, but nowhere near enough to win.

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by: Bertin Lefkovic @ Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 16:04:58 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Saxton (0.00 / 0)

If Saxton had not retired, he would have been challenged in a primary by a Tea Party candidate with lots of outside money.  He would not have been a sure thing.


Blog: http://www.deciminyan.org

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by: deciminyan @ Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 10:10:03 AM UTC

[ Parent ]