Election Day Predictions

the tea leaves say (0.00 / 0)

disaster.

Frank LoBiondo Record and Jon Runyan Watch

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by: Hopeful @ Mon Nov 01, 2010 at 22:57:53 PM UTC

Tea (Party) Leaves (4.00 / 1)

I'd say the only place the Tea leaves matter directly is where the Tea Party matters directly, and that's NJ-6, Pallone v. Tea Party approved Anna Little. And I say those Tea (Party) leaves aren't going to brewed strongly enough for Anna Little.  

It's not a particularly snappy signature, but here's what I think we need in the next NJ Democratic State Chair.  

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by: Rosi Efthim @ Mon Nov 01, 2010 at 23:37:03 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

heh (0.00 / 0)

I didn't pick up on the pun. I have read too many polls to think there is anything but disaster coming nationwide, even if only Adler (and lots of local candidates) lose here. Independents are voting Republican and Democratic turnout will be lousy.

Of course, as Nate Silver has pointed out, if the polls are only a few points biased against Democrats their losses won't be too bad. It happened in 1998 but I doubt it.


Frank LoBiondo Record and Jon Runyan Watch

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by: Hopeful @ Mon Nov 01, 2010 at 23:42:21 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Right Leaning Independents? (4.00 / 1)

Why have our friends in the Middle moved to the right?

Nationally the Democratic leadership has been no match for the grenade throwing Republicans. Pelosi/Reid just have not been able to sell the positive as well as the Republicans/Tea Party have sold the negative.

But the bottom line is that the President will not allow those Republicans to get anything crazy passed. So we will have two years of stalemate.

Politics is more about perception than reality. The Tea Party ,with the Republican leadership jumping on board,have done a much better job creating a doom and gloom scenario. The Independents have bought this negative message and will create a government of 100% stalement.    

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by: firstamend07 @ Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 00:01:07 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I agree 100% (0.00 / 0)

Frank LoBiondo Record and Jon Runyan Watch

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by: Hopeful @ Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 00:31:12 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I hope... (0.00 / 0)

...that Obama will at least prevent harm from being done in this next session. How sad that that is the best we can hope for.

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by: Alex @ Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 12:44:24 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

State Senate Democrats will Increase (0.00 / 0)

The State Senate will increase from 23 to 24 with another woman on board.

The Sweeney Ballot question will be a good selling point to all workers next year as the funds will now be protected.

Christie has campaigned all across the country but will have very little to " crow about" in his own State. No big upsets ,even if Adler should go down.

The real " Home Turf" battle begins on Wednesday as the campaign for all 120 Legislative seats starts.

Will Christie put his National reputation on the line in 2011 by trying to put Republican majorities in both the State Senate and Assembly?

Tomorrow will not be good nationally but shaking it off quickly will be essential to a successful 2011.

One things is ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN, it would be a supreme disaster to have a Republican led State Senate and Assembly.    

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by: firstamend07 @ Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 00:14:02 AM UTC

Almost as bad to have Democratic majorities... (0.00 / 0)

...that are unwilling or unable to stand up to a Republican Governor.

We need a progressive legislative district map that consists of 40 competitive districts that cross as few county lines as possible.

We need progressives to run for State Assembly and State Senate against conservative Democrats in primary elections.

If there is any lesson that can be learned from the Tea Party it is that insurgents can win low-turnout primary elections if they have a compelling enough message that resonates with their party's base.

The difference between progressive and teabagging wingnuts is that while their base is made up of extremist wackos, ours is just looking for candidates who are honest and committed to good government, unlike Sweeney, Oliver, and their corrupt DINOs.

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by: Bertin Lefkovic @ Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 02:05:43 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Holt and Pallone (0.00 / 0)

No big prediction here just simple and plain truth, Holt and Pallone will loose big in Middletown where they each represent portions of the town, but will hold on to carry their respective districts by 5 or more percent.

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by: MiddletownMike @ Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 00:41:05 AM UTC

final 538 predictions (0.00 / 0)

For those who like Silver:

NJ6 forecast: Pallone 55.1% to Little 42.5% (Pallone 95.7% chance of victory)

NJ3 forecast:  Adler 47.7%, Runyan 49.4% (Runyan 60.8% chance of victory)

NJ12 forecast:  Holt 54.2%, Sipprelle 43.2% (Holt 95.6% chance of victory)

NJ7 forecast:  Potosnak 36.6%, Lance 60.9% (Lance 99.7% chance of victory)  [They're working without polls there.]

Frank LoBiondo Record and Jon Runyan Watch

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by: Hopeful @ Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 01:15:18 AM UTC

I like Silver a lot, but... (0.00 / 0)

... I don't like those 7th District numbers.  I want to believe that Ed can keep the margin of loss down to single digits.

I think that in the other three races, Silver is going to be less than a percentage point off the mark.

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by: Bertin Lefkovic @ Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 01:45:48 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

he basically has (0.00 / 0)

Lance doing the same as LoBiondo.  Without a poll I think it's flying blind.

Frank LoBiondo Record and Jon Runyan Watch

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by: Hopeful @ Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 01:52:25 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Bergen County Dems (4.00 / 1)

have a strong field operation going! Robo calls coming fast and furiouslyl - everyone from the candidates themselves; friends of the candidates and even President Bill Clinton. I myself made some for local candidates in Leonia and Bergenfield. Could have done without Howard Stern call-in, but the "boys" sometimes get carried away. So it's on to the big day tomorrow.  Look forward to following all our races!

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by: Senator Loretta Weinberg @ Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 01:41:59 AM UTC

I heard a Rothman radio ad this morning (0.00 / 0)

Anyway have a sense of what's going on with his race?


Frank LoBiondo Record and Jon Runyan Watch

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by: Hopeful @ Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 02:04:16 AM UTC

As usual (3.00 / 1)

Republicans have a sacrificial lamb. If he manages to hold Rothman below 70% I'll be surprised.

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by: Thurman Hart @ Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 15:11:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ocean County (0.00 / 0)

Democrats have written off Ocean County.  No signs for Dem candidates for freeholder, very few for Adler.  Even saw some DeStefano signs (gee, I wonder who paid for them).

Haven't seen any Adler ads on TV or radio except for the donkeys, and that was several weeks ago.  If Adler is spending money in this race, it isn't in Ocean County.

One exception is Michele Rosen, the Dem candidate for County Clerk.  She's a local activist, and I have seen a few of her signs around.  I'm sure if she had the money and organizational support she could make County GOP Boss George Gilmore really sweat.


http://christiegonewild.blogsp...

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by: ken bank @ Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 02:13:16 AM UTC

Adler (4.00 / 1)

Adler must be spending his money in western Burlington County.  He definitely is leading in the lawn signs war and I get a mailing from him (as well as Runyan) just about every day.  Today and Adler canvasser came to our door to drop more literature.  No sign of Runyan (maybe because my wife and I are both registered as D).  As I've said before, I don't understand why Adler does not exploit Runyan's pro-oil drilling platform in Ocean County which depends so much on its beaches.

Blog: http://www.deciminyan.org

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by: deciminyan @ Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 02:21:33 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Adler (0.00 / 0)

In the long list of incomprehensibles and unfortunatelies, that is but one.  

It's not a particularly snappy signature, but here's what I think we need in the next NJ Democratic State Chair.  

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by: Rosi Efthim @ Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 02:27:25 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Steve Rothman in a run-away (4.00 / 2)

This Congressman is not having any "tea party" problems.  Looking forward to a big win for him!!

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by: Senator Loretta Weinberg @ Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 03:53:27 AM UTC

still HOPEful (0.00 / 0)

The polls are certainly skewed, particularly those that don't include cell phone data, but most are essentially useless since the close races are ALL within the margin of error. I'm still hoping that Democratic turnout will beat expectations, mostly because I would love to see all the prognosticating pundits eat their words.

With that said, here are my statistically irrelevant, completely arbitrary predictions!

NJ-3 Adler 50.9%, Runyan 49.1%
NJ-6 Pallone 60%, Little 40%
NJ-7 Lance 53%, Potosnak 47%
NJ-12 Holt 55%, Sipprelle 45%

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by: LittlePat @ Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 04:28:07 AM UTC

If Pallone wins by 20 and Holt wins by 10, then... (0.00 / 0)

...we will probably be celebrating the swearing in of Congressman Ed Potosnak in January.

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by: Bertin Lefkovic @ Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 06:08:33 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hard to tell (4.00 / 1)

that there's even an election in Hudson County. I'm predicting Rothman gets 70% and who cares about the county sheriff - it's the current sheriff against his own undersheriff. Honestly, if it weren't for the public question, I wouldn't bother.  

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by: Thurman Hart @ Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 15:10:02 PM UTC