Poll: Adler behind

someone can look at the internals (0.00 / 0)

and try to find flaws, but I think Adler's finished.


Frank LoBiondo Record and Jon Runyan Watch

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by: Hopeful @ Tue Oct 26, 2010 at 19:59:37 PM UTC

a link (4.00 / 1)

Robert Reich on why you should vote but also cynicism vs. idealism, perhaps helpful for those of you in Adler's district who have become cynical.  

Frank LoBiondo Record and Jon Runyan Watch

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by: Hopeful @ Tue Oct 26, 2010 at 20:10:03 PM UTC

AMEN (4.00 / 1)

I agree with everything that Robert Reich says here, which is why I have always differentiated between progressives supporting John Adler and progressives voting for John Adler.

Obviously, anyone who lives in the 3rd only has two legitimate choices on their ballot and as bad as John Adler has been during his first term in office, he clearly should be voted for over Jon Runyan.

That said, I do not believe that progressives should support Adler with their manpower and money, which should be reserved for truly progressive candidates who have represented our values like Rush Holt and Frank Pallone or someone who would represent our values if given the opportunity to do so, like Ed Potosnak.

During his first term in office, John Adler has chosen to represent special interests like the banking and private health insurance industries, who have funded his re-election campaign, instead of the progressives who helped elect him in 2008.

Undoubtedly, he should have more than enough special interest money and more than enough manpower supplied by the Norcross machine to beat Runyan and if he doesn't then he has nobody to blame when he loses but himself.

I am sure that most, if not all, progressives in the 3rd will vote on Election Day, and I am sure that most, if not all, of them will vote for John Adler as they should.  Most likely, that will not be enough for many of the reasons that Reich describes in his article.

I could be wrong, but I think that if John Adler had been as progressive a Congressman as he had been when he was a State Senator, he would be in a better position to defeat Jon Runyan than he is at the moment and not because he would have the enthusiastic support of progressive money and manpower.

I believe that a progressive Congressman John Adler would be beating Jon Runyan, because he would be able to run with a campaign message that is hopeful and optimistic enough to assuage the fears of his independent middle and working class constituents.

Instead he has to somehow explain to his constituents how despite the fact that so much of the quasi-progressive legislation that he opposed was passed, their lives will be getting better in the future.  Adler is a very smart guy and an even more skilled communicator, but an argument like that is one tough needle to thread and I don't think that even someone like him can pull it off.

Despite my negative opinion of his first term in office, I wish John Adler the best on Election Day and I hope that he wins.  And if he wins and Cherry Hill is redistricted into Rob Andrews district as I predict that it will, I hope that he runs against Andrews or Bob Menendez in 2012, because I believe that deep down inside, Adler is more progressive than either Andrews or Menendez.  

Unfortunately, he just doesn't have the courage of his convictions, but I do not believe that either Andrews or Menendez do either.  They have just been more fortunate than Adler to represent a Democratic district/state that enables them to cast the votes that they have cast, including for some unknown reason, votes in favor of the Defense of Marriage Act, something that I believe that Adler on his most cowardly day would never have voted for.  That is one thing about him with which I know Babs and I agree.

In fact, I thought that it was gutsy/stupid of Adler to give up a safe State Senate seat that afforded him far more power to advocate for progressive issues than the 3rd District congressional seat.  Gutsy, because he was taking one for the Democratic team, and stupid, because he was not able to guarantee that his successor, James Beach, would be as progressive as he was, which was proven when Beach joined Senate President Sweeney in abstaining on the marriage equality vote.

Who knows?  Maybe losing to Runyan will be good for Adler in the long run.  Maybe Stefanogate will be the last straw for him, he will sever his relationship with the Norcross machine once and for all, he will announce that he is going to organize a progressives alternative in South Jersey, and he will challenge Beach for his old Senate seat in 2011.

And to quote the great spokesman of our generation, Wayne Campbell, "It might happen. Yeah, and monkeys might fly out of my butt."

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by: Bertin Lefkovic @ Tue Oct 26, 2010 at 21:04:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Where's Adler's money (0.00 / 0)

Interesting analysis.  Reportedly Adler has a three-to-one cash advantage, yet I haven't seen any signs (at least in Ocean), little mail (compared to Runyan), and the only TV ad is the one about the donkeys.  In fact, I got ten times as much mail from Adler when he was using the franking privilege as a Congressman than I do now from him as a candidate.

So where's the money going to?  Has he already concluded he's finished this time around and is hoarding his money for another campaign?  It will be interesting to see how much COH he has on hand after the election.

http://christiegonewild.blogsp...

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by: ken bank @ Tue Oct 26, 2010 at 21:40:17 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Pulling an Adler (4.00 / 1)

This is like some morality play, a melodrama, or a children's book, where tales of woe befall those who lie, cheat, and fail to observe the Golden Rule.

Watching the Adler campaign implode is equal parts horror show and thrilling comeuppance. I don't want a Congressman Runyan. But I also think we gain something if a campaign which refuses to run honorably on its own merits and voting history, and appears comfortable with deceiving the voters goes down in flames.


It's not a particularly snappy signature, but here's what I think we need in the next NJ Democratic State Chair.  

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by: Rosi Efthim @ Tue Oct 26, 2010 at 20:24:46 PM UTC

AMEN REDUX (0.00 / 0)

Hopefully, Congressman Runyan won't be able to do too much damage before he is redistricted out of office and has the opportunity to embarrass himself statewide when he runs against Bob Menendez (or a progressively reinvigorated John Adler in the mother of all rematches - a politics junkie can only hope, right?).

It will be interesting to see who Republican Giants fans vote for if given that choice.  Maybe the Tea Party can get Lawrence Taylor out of jail/rehab long enough to recruit him to run on Sarah Palin's line.  He's definitely crazy enough for those teabagging wingnuts.  Or Brad Benson could run as an independent on Mike Bloomberg's line.  He's already on the radio enough with his ridiculous car ads.

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by: Bertin Lefkovic @ Tue Oct 26, 2010 at 21:17:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's hard to understand... (0.00 / 0)

...why Adler keeps harping on Runyan's donkeys but lets him slide on his oil drilling platform (pardon the pun).  Runyan is in favor of allowing each state to determine if offshore drilling should be permitted.  It seems that especially the Ocean County folks would want to protect their beaches, but Adler's mailings have not made a big deal of this.

Blog: http://www.deciminyan.org

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by: deciminyan @ Tue Oct 26, 2010 at 20:28:39 PM UTC

What mailings? (0.00 / 0)

The only mail I've gotten from Adler the last few weeks only talks about Runyan's farmland tax assessment.  And the only TV ad I've seen from Adler is attacking Runyan because he lives in a mansion and gets a tax break.  Nothing about issues.  

OTOH I've been deluged with mail from Runyan.  Today's mail was pretty effective.  One side is negative featuring all the newspaper stories about Adler recruiting a "fake" candidate.  The other side shows a smiling Runyan talking about a balanced budget and tax cuts.  Hey, it worked for Ronald Reagan in 1980.

I haven't seen any Adler signs either in southern Ocean, and plenty of Runyan signs.  In fact, I haven't seen any signs for Democratic candidates except for Michele Rosen, who is running for County Clerk.  Looks like the Dems have just given up on Ocean County.  George Gilmore and his political machine rides again to an easy win.

http://christiegonewild.blogsp...

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by: ken bank @ Tue Oct 26, 2010 at 21:03:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Right. (0.00 / 0)

The donkey's a big deal insofar as a very rich man's taking advantage of taxpayers. But it's a simple tale that while true, has been told and told again.

Does the Adler campaign imagine voters aren't smart enough to grasp that more complex issue that Deciminyan brings up?  It's a crucial difference between them, one that counts heavily toward Adler's favor.  

It's not a particularly snappy signature, but here's what I think we need in the next NJ Democratic State Chair.  

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by: Rosi Efthim @ Tue Oct 26, 2010 at 21:32:43 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think that ken bank answered your question. (0.00 / 0)

For John Adler to make the oil drilling argument to Ocean County voters who care about their beaches, he would actually have to spend money and time in Ocean County.

If his campaign has written off Ocean County and is focusing on getting his votes out of Cherry Hill and Western Burlco as someone else here argued recently, then his campaign might feel that the oil drilling issue might not be as resonant with those voters.

If that is his campaign's strategy, it is batshit crazy.  Every inch of the 3rd District is an hour or less away from our state's greatest icon and natural resource and no matter what the Situation and Snookii do on a weekly basis to devalue the Jersey shore, nothing, including their drunken, Red Bull-driven stupidity could do a fraction of the damage of a BP-sized oil spill originating anywhere in the Mid-Atlantic.

Since the Adler campaign and its high-priced media consultants clearly aren't bright enough to create the one 30-second ad that could win the election, I wonder if any of Blue Jersey's media gurus would be interested in taking a crack at it.

The concept is simple.  Interlace video clips of news reports of the BP spill with fictionalized coverage of a future Mid-Atlantic spill with Gulf Coast-like current maps, showing how quickly the spill would reach our shores and how much damage it would do and then connect the dots between that kind of catastrophe and Runyan's position on offshore oil drilling, maybe with an image of a big thug in a Eagles jersey with Runyan's name and number, wading through oil-soaked water trying to block the oil from reaching the beach, yelling "I didn't know oil could travel that far that fast!".

Does Blue Jersey have a status of some kind (501c4? 527?) that would enable it to receive contributions and use the money to buy TV time?  If so, my guess is that if someone created an ad that was good enough for TV, there are probably people who have maxed out their contributions to Adler who would give money to Blue Jersey to put its ads on TV.  Even without money, I think that something sharp, cool, and biting could get some viral traction and some earned media.  Who knows?  Maybe it could be cool enough to get on the Rachel Maddow Show by Monday night.

I know that this idea seems far-fetched, but if anybody could pull something like this off, Blue Jersey could.

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by: Bertin Lefkovic @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 04:15:50 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Joe Sestak's ad (0.00 / 0)

They should get the same people who did that "dog poop" ad for Joe Sestak.  Since that ad first appeared two weeks ago the race has tightened.

SpongeBob couldn't do any worse than Adler's people have done running his campaign into the ground.  Though I still suspect Adler is hoarding cash in case he decides to make a comeback.

http://christiegonewild.blogsp...

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by: ken bank @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 07:34:12 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Here's the dog poop ad. (4.00 / 1)

First time I've seen this Sestak ad.

It's not a particularly snappy signature, but here's what I think we need in the next NJ Democratic State Chair.  

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by: Rosi Efthim @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 13:07:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The "DeStefano" factor (0.00 / 0)

This was a campaign Adler should win fairly easy.  There was, until the Destefano story broke, no enthusiasm gap in this race.  The GOP base was as turned off by Runyan as the Dem base was turned off by Adler's vote against HCR.

When the story broke it energized the GOP base, especially the TNuts who had been distancing themselves from Runyan, while at the same time disheartened the Dem base and put Adler on the defensive.

I think Richard Nixon described Adler's current predicament very well when, in describing his Watergate blunders, said that he had given his enemies a sword and they twisted it with relish.

http://christiegonewild.blogsp...

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by: ken bank @ Tue Oct 26, 2010 at 21:16:07 PM UTC

Adler Still Has Good Shot (3.50 / 2)

Don't give up on him yet. He will pull this out - and I don't believe it's worth having an ignorant Republican whose had no experience outside football and who has befriended the Tea Party over a Democrat who has made some votes that probably are the reason he has any chance at all this year.

These polls do not show Runyan pulling away - they show that he's got a slight edge. An edge that can easily be overcome with good GOTV and voters coming to their senses in deciding Runyan really isn't fit to hold office.

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by: IronFan2131 @ Tue Oct 26, 2010 at 21:18:46 PM UTC