"If Not Chris Then Who?"

Another Indicator (0.00 / 0)

Another indicator that might point to a Christie presidential run would be if he ratchets up the issues of abortion and gay rights.  So far, he has not made a big splash in these arenas, even though we know he holds the wrong position.  If he wants to establish his GOP creds to capture the nomination, he will have to spout the party line vociferously on these issues.

Blog: http://www.deciminyan.org

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by: deciminyan @ Thu Oct 14, 2010 at 16:06:02 PM UTC

he probably should run (0.00 / 0)

There will be many more Republican governors around next time (2016) fighting for the nomination. Right now, there's a field of weak candidates: I'd bet on Gingrich except I was just reminded of how many awful scandals he was in.  He really could get the nomination and if the economy doesn't recover -- and the Republicans in Congress have no intention of helping it recover -- Obama will be in deep trouble.


Frank LoBiondo Record and Jon Runyan Watch

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by: Hopeful @ Thu Oct 14, 2010 at 17:19:19 PM UTC

Gingrich is toast. (0.00 / 0)

I think his ex-wife provided just enough sordid detail that nobody outside the crimson fringe will ever take him seriously again.

Christie isn't just a potential presidential candidate, he's a beacon for a party whose leaders - Palin, Gingrich, Steele, Limbaugh etc - have lost credibility. I don't think Christie's public persona is fully baked yet (look how fast Christine O'Donnell imploded) but for right now for some Republicans he is Messiah. But this too shall pass.


It's not a particularly snappy signature, but here's what I think we need in the next NJ Democratic State Chair.  

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by: Rosi Efthim @ Thu Oct 14, 2010 at 17:38:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

He won't run (0.00 / 0)

It's a long shot because even he's not nutty enough for that party.  And if he doesn't make it, he'll leave himself open to charges that he sought to bail on his state halfway through his first term.

A VP selection is possible however.  That would lessen any fallout from NJ voters if his ticket doesn't win.

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by: 12mileseastofTrenton @ Thu Oct 14, 2010 at 19:41:04 PM UTC

VP much more likely than P (0.00 / 0)

I have a hard time seeing Christie take his second year in office off to campaign for the Presidency.  As popular as he might be right now, I think that it would be very risky of him to try to cash in on that popularity right now, when time could enable him to become even more popular than he is right now.

If he spends 2011 running for President, he will make it virtually impossible for Republicans in NJ to regain control of the Assembly and the Senate.  If he continues to govern in the way that has made him so popular and the Republicans successfully regain control of the Assembly and Senate, he will be able to pursue policies and craft a budget in June 2012 that will skyrocket him to the top of the VP race that will be decided shortly thereafter.

If Sarah Palin wins the Republican Presidential nomination, as I predict she will, Christie will be a perfect match for her.  He doesn't match up nearly as well with Mitt Romney or any of the other likely front-runners.  If Palin-Christie lose, as I hope that they would, it will most likely not be Christie's fault as he would not be the kind of drag on the ticket that Palin was in 2008.

If the economy improves slowly but surely over the next two years as many predict that it will, Christie will, fairly or unfairly, get a boost from that and be even more tough to beat in 2013 than Christie Whitman was in 1997, which means that it is unlikely that he will face a strong re-election challenge and Republicans would most likely retain their majority during that election cycle, enabling him to continue to govern in the manner that he has, grow his popularity even further, and position himself for a 2016 Presidential run where he would be very tough to beat.

Despite the fact that he has been a terrible Governor, Christie has conversely been a very smart politician, who has been far more successful in getting as much as he has been able to get out of a state legislature that has been controlled by the opposition party.  I am not aware of any Governor anywhere who has been as successful as he has been in this regard.

I think that it could be possible to get a sense of how serious Christie's national ambitions truly are by paying close attention to the redistricting process.
I think that it is possible, if not likely, that Christie (through his representatives on the respective redistricting commissions) could cut a deal with Sweeney (through his representatives on the respective redistricting commissions) to draw a congressional map that is more Republican-friendly than the current map and a legislative map that is more Democratic-friendly than the current map.

If Runyan beats Adler in November, which I predict he will, and everything else remains the same, the Democrats will have a 7-6 advantage going into redistricting, which will most likely result in the loss of a seat.

If Christie wants to score points with national Republicans, he could target Rush Holt by putting him in the same district as Frank Pallone and forcing the two of them to face off in a Democratic primary or by putting Holt in the same district as either Leonard Lance or Chris Smith with a demographic that is similar or even more conservative than his former district, which he won in two elections by very narrow margins.

He could also target Bill Pascrell Jr. and/or Steve Rothman by placing both/either in the same districts as Rodney Frelinghuysen and/or Scott Garrett.  He could even defend such a map with the argument that New Jerseyans deserve more competive Congressional districts that would require representatives to be more responsive to the needs of their constituents.

However, the flipside of this perspective is that a district that might be competitive during a high-turnout Presidential election cycle could lean Republican during a lower-turnout midterm election.

While Holt-Lance/Smith, Pascrell-Frelinghuysen, and Rothman-Garrett could offer a significant amount of drama for political junkies and voters alike, they could also dramatically alter the political landscape in the state and the country for the next decade.

Conversely, if Christie fights hard for a more Republican-friendly legislative map and the congressional map remains as incumbent-friendly as it currently is, then an argument could be made that Christie's focus is more on his state agenda than his national ambitions.

Obviously, a tradeoff like this would make it harder for Republicans to regain control of the Assembly and Senate in 2011 and retain it in 2013, which Christie needs to be able to do everything that he wants to do going forward, but that is a political calculation that he will have to make.

If becoming President is his endgame, he might be better off settling for getting 75% of what he wants from a Democratic legislature and being able to claim credit for increasing the number of Republicans in the House than he would be if Republicans win the state legislature and he can get 100% of what he wants.

If Democrats in Trenton want to prevent Christie from becoming Vice President in 2012 or President in 2016, the first thing that they should consider doing is stop giving him as much as they have given him to date.

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by: Bertin Lefkovic @ Thu Oct 14, 2010 at 20:59:57 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Redistricting (0.00 / 0)

What Christie says about redistricting doesn't go.  There's a commission, and usually the nonpartisan member casts the deciding vote on which plan will be adopted.

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by: 12mileseastofTrenton @ Fri Oct 15, 2010 at 13:06:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

read what I wrote again (0.00 / 0)

I think that it could be possible to get a sense of how serious Christie's national ambitions truly are by paying close attention to the redistricting process.  I think that it is possible, if not likely, that Christie (through his representatives on the respective redistricting commissions) could cut a deal with Sweeney (through his representatives on the respective redistricting commissions) to draw a congressional map that is more Republican-friendly than the current map and a legislative map that is more Democratic-friendly than the current map.

If the two sides cut a deal on a redistricting map, the nonpartisan member of the commissions become irrelevant.  Christie and Sweeney will have as much power over this process as they choose to have.

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by: Bertin Lefkovic @ Fri Oct 15, 2010 at 17:12:40 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The problem ... (0.00 / 0)

Ah... with all due respect your analysis skirts over the fact that Chris Christie is an incompetent embarressment. I choose to take his alleged "popularity" with a grain of salt. As previously commented, his messiahhood will SO definitely pass. Sarah Palin/Chris Christie ticket? These two are a national joke except for those living in the Fox News bubble.  

mmgth

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by: mmgth @ Fri Oct 15, 2010 at 22:31:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

That's the ticket (0.00 / 0)

Ah!  The Beauty and the Beast ticket!

Blog: http://www.deciminyan.org

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by: deciminyan @ Fri Oct 15, 2010 at 22:53:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

who's laughing? (0.00 / 0)

Unfortunately, far too many people in this country live in the Fox News bubble.  Nothing I have written above is an endorsement of Christie or Palin, but simply how I logically see events unfolding and I think that my logic is pretty sound.  If you disagree, please explain.

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by: Bertin Lefkovic @ Sat Oct 16, 2010 at 18:09:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

More people outside of the bubble than in (0.00 / 0)

As I said, your analysis ignores the contempt behind the sneer both Palin and Christie evoke nationally. I don't know how you can suggest that Christie is smart politically when his bullying ends up with so many hits on youtube. And they are NOT fans viewing.I honestly don't see either as viable in the Presidential race as the Republican party knows in spite of the Fox News knucklehead voter either's nomination would end up with a Dem. landslide surpassing Nixon's win over McGovern (who actually was an honorable nominee unlike these two).

mmgth

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by: mmgth @ Sat Oct 16, 2010 at 21:59:28 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

lots of Faux News knucklehead voters (0.00 / 0)

Who do you think votes in Republican Presidential primary elections?  Do you really think that David Brooks or George Will represent the perspective of the bulk of the Republican primary election voter universe?  Do you really think that teabagging wingnuts are taking their cues from what they see on YouTube?

All I say to anybody who assumes that a Palin nomination would result in a Democratic landslide is be careful what they wish for.  There is no way to predict what will happen in any election taking place two years from now.

Also, as awful as Christie is, he is still far more mainstream than Palin, which is exactly why he matches up so well with her.  He would give the ticket a huge credibility and gravitas boost.

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by: Bertin Lefkovic @ Sun Oct 17, 2010 at 02:43:43 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

In spite of Christie's "gravitas" (0.00 / 0)

If the Republican Presidential primary goes Teabag It will ensure the party's demise.  

mmgth

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by: mmgth @ Sun Oct 17, 2010 at 04:59:42 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I hope that you're right, but... (0.00 / 0)

...I don't think that you are.

Even if Democrats retain control over the House and Senate following the midterm elections, their majorities are going to be so narrow that the gridlock is going to be even worse than it has been for the last two years, which means that very little of any consequence, aside from the extension of the Bush tax cuts, is going to be done.

If I am right about this, then the only thing that President Obama will have going for him is the likelihood that the economy and the jobs outlook will be better two years from now than they are now.

Even if he and Biden or Clinton defeat Palin and Christie, I don't believe that it will be the kind of landslide that people think it will be, and if the economy and the jobs outlook does not improve, they could lose to them.

If that happens, the only upside is the prediction that the world is supposed to come to an end in December 2012, so Palin most likely won't have the opportunity to do any meaningful damage as President.

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by: Bertin Lefkovic @ Sun Oct 17, 2010 at 15:00:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm tempted to say... (0.00 / 0)

I HOPE HE RUNS, to get him out of NJ.  But really, this could be a could be a matter of "hoist on his on petard".  I don't think the big shots in the Republican party, lobbyists and those behind the scenes folks are going to let him get away with the bullying and acting out.  I say let him try, maybe he'll be taken down again and come down off of his cloud.  And be more willing to act like a mature adult who is supposed to represent all of the people in NJ.

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by: sandy23 @ Thu Oct 14, 2010 at 20:30:06 PM UTC

Candidate Christie (0.00 / 0)

It seems to me reprehensible when a person elected to govern a state after only one year decides to spend much of the second and third years seeking higher office. It's more understandable if it's the sixth and seventh year in a second term. Under such a scenario if he loses he then comes back and spends the fourth year in a re-election effort. So much for governing.
My hunch is that he does not see himself in the role of a VP, only as the President, and that he will continue for some time to test the water, and then either jump in or run back to NJ depending on how he views his chances. He can not wait too long, however, because by the end of February there may have been as many as 23 primaries and caucuses, including that of NJ. This is an updated version of the anticipated primary and caucus schedule, about the same as the one I linked to above, but remember that these dates are always subject to change on the whim of legislatures and governors.


"The work goes on, the cause endures, the hope still lives, and the dream shall never die." - Sen. Ted Kennedy

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by: Bill Orr @ Fri Oct 15, 2010 at 00:46:12 AM UTC

NJ will move back to June (0.00 / 0)

Unless Christie is running for President or endorses a Presidential candidate early, neither of which I believe are likely scenarios, I predict New Jersey's Presidential primary date will be moved back to the same day as the rest of the state's primary elections.

A Presidential primary election on a separate date is a very expensive endeavor and with a contested primary on only the Republican side of the ballot and Democrats continuing to control the state legislature, I do not see there being a critical mass of support behind a Super Tuesday Presidential primary election.

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by: Bertin Lefkovic @ Fri Oct 15, 2010 at 01:49:13 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Christie won't run... (0.00 / 0)

...if for no other reason than he owes Mitt Romney for endorsing him last year in the primary.

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by: RightOne @ Fri Oct 15, 2010 at 16:16:57 PM UTC

Romney endorsement not a factor (0.00 / 0)

Do you really believe that Romney's endorsement was the difference between Christie winning or losing against Steve Lonegan?

Even if that were true, if Christie thinks that he can become President in 2012, loyalty to Romney is not going to stop him.  Christie is not loyal to anybody but himself.

He'll most likely prove that by not endorsing any Presidential candidate in 2011-2012.  Neutrality keeps his VP options open.

There is no way in hell that he will burn any bridges by endorsing Romney, who he doesn't match up well with.  He matches up best with Palin, who would benefit from Christie's neutrality.

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by: Bertin Lefkovic @ Fri Oct 15, 2010 at 17:24:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]