Poll: Pallone (D) leads Little (R) by 12

by: Hopeful

Wed Oct 06, 2010 at 10:59:28 PM EDT

Monmouth University polled New Jersey's 6th district (PDF):

...incumbent Democrat Frank Pallone holds a 12 point lead over Tea Party-backed Republican Anna Little. The Monmouth University Poll finds Pallone leading Little by a 53% to 41% margin among likely voters in this district.

Patrick Murray points out Pallone normally wins by thirty so that's not so impressive but it looks good enough. Pallone's favorable-unfavorable is 48-32, job approval is 46-36. Among other interesting numbers that show how hard this district is for Little is that the Republican Party gets 57% unfavorable and the Tea Party 51% unfavorable. FiveThirtyEight.com projected 59.3-37.3 before this poll was released, so again Pallone is doing worse than expected.
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Hopeful :: Poll: Pallone (D) leads Little (R) by 12

If you didn't see it, Rutgers-Eagleton released a New Jersey generic Congressional poll last Friday:

Among likely voters, 47 percent say they would vote for a Democrat and 36 percent for a Republican, while 4 percent prefer a third party and 12 percent do not make a choice...
Across current Democratic congressional districts, 47 percent of registered voters would vote for a generic Democrat compared to 31 percent for a Republican, while 15 percent of voters living in Democratic districts are still undecided...
Across all Republican-held districts, 38 percent of registered voters would vote for a generic Republican, while 42 percent would vote for a generic Democratic candidate

However, "current congressman" leads "challenger" only 32-31 statewide.

That's an intriguing result for Republican districts, especially since we recently learned Frank LoBiondo has a huge lead. Ed Potosnak's campaign has suggested this generic poll shows he can beat Lance.

My summary of polls is:

Andrews(D) has a huge lead as in normal years.
LoBiondo (R) has a huge lead as in normal years.
Adler(D) is in a real fight, under 50% but consistently a bit ahead of Runyan in independent polls.
Pallone has a large lead but not as big as usual.
Statewide polls give little reason to think any other Democrats are in great jeopardy but this is a year that they need to campaign.
I don't remember seeing a poll of Holt's (D) district.