Primary Election Prediction Thread (Free Shirt)

my guesses (0.00 / 0)

Kean Jr: 75
Ginty: 22

Sires: 70
Vas: 25

Garrett: 96
Cino: 2

I won't ruin the competition like I did last time, so I'm not going to guess on NJ5(D).

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by: Juan Melli @ Tue Jun 06, 2006 at 01:38:31 AM UTC

Kean and Cino (0.00 / 0)

kean will win, but may be late to vote because he gets stuck in traffic.

I'm gonna miss Cino.  Who will threaten to sue Blue Jersey now?

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by: Jason Springer @ Tue Jun 06, 2006 at 01:45:26 AM UTC

My thoughts (0.00 / 0)

Senate R: Kean 80%, Ginty 20%
NJ-5 D: Aronsohn 60%, Abate 40%
NJ-5 R: Garrett 85%, Cino 15%
NJ-13: Sires 55%, Vas 45%
BCE: Caliguire 53%, Donovan 47%

I don't know anything about the Harrison race.

"We are the leaders we've been waiting for." - Paul Wellstone

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by: Stephen Yellin @ Tue Jun 06, 2006 at 01:46:28 AM UTC

I predict Nia Gill will get over 100 write in votes for US Senate (D) (0.00 / 0)

NJ-5th Camille Abate 51%, Paul Aronsohn 49%

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by: kwilkinson @ Tue Jun 06, 2006 at 02:01:06 AM UTC

Predictions (0.00 / 0)

Tom Kean Jr 75%  John Ginty 25%
Paul Aronsohn 80%  Camille Abate 20%
Scott Garrett 80%  Mike Cino 20%
Albio Sires  65%  Joe Vas 34%
Todd Calaguire 60%  Kathleen Donavan 40%
Raymond McDonough 55%  Michael Hinchcliffe 45%

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by: BootGOP2006 @ Tue Jun 06, 2006 at 02:18:40 AM UTC

Gotta Go For That Tee Shirt :-) (0.00 / 0)

Camille 52%

Paul 48%

Given that Aronsohn has actually had to start to spend real money, I have to assume that his pollsters told him that the strategy of ignoring his opponent wasn't working.

The thousands of last minute robocalls will indeed probably increase the turnout, but it'll backfire...people just don't like being ordered to vote a certain way by machines (literally and figuratively).

Finally, there's a word of mouth/miracle X factor; the electorate, especially in a democratic primary is a pretty savvy bunch.  Their common sense will coincide with my own.  I don't need to repeat all that I've said here before, if you read it; you remember.  And if you didn't, you can look it up.

In any event, whomever wins tomorrow; all need to let bygones be bygones and unite to defeat Garrett in November. 

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by: Nick Lento @ Tue Jun 06, 2006 at 02:40:44 AM UTC

NJ5 (0.00 / 0)

Aronsohn-55
Abate-44

Also, I think Donovon will win in Bergen County, though I have no idea by how much.

And, by the way, both of these are rampantly uninformed guesses.

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by: Brian McGinnis @ Tue Jun 06, 2006 at 02:47:27 AM UTC

I have seen the future (4.00 / 1)

Tom Kean Jr 82%  John Ginty 5%
Paul Aronsohn 90%  Camille Abate 16%
Scott Garrett 88%  Mike Cino 10%
Albio Sires  54%  Joe Vas 44%

Donald Duck will receive at least one vote in each of the above races.

-- Mitch
ManzellaNews.com

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by: mitch @ Tue Jun 06, 2006 at 03:05:09 AM UTC

do the math (0.00 / 0)

Mitch, you must have a typo, you can't think there will be 106% turnout in the 5th.  Or are you trying to suggest something else? 

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by: kwilkinson @ Tue Jun 06, 2006 at 03:20:51 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

beats me (0.00 / 0)

Abate 32%, Aronsohn 68%:  why not?
VaA 32%, Sires 68%:  may as well try it again
Thomas-Hughes wins in NJ-02:  website is up.

And Busby in CA-50: please please I hope she wins!

 

Frank LoBiondo Record and Jon Runyan Watch

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by: Hopeful @ Tue Jun 06, 2006 at 03:37:17 AM UTC

Gimme another tshirt (0.00 / 0)

US Senate (R): Kean Jr: 87 / Ginty: 9
NJ-5 (D): Abate: 11 / Aronsohn: 85
NJ-5 (R): Cino: 2 / Garrett: 97
NJ-13 (D): Vas: 29 / Sires: 70
Bergen County Executive (R): Donovan: 34 / Caliguire: 62
Harrison Mayor (D): McDonough: 24 / Hinchcliffe: 72 (blind guess)

I will second Nick Lento's motion for everyone to unite against Garrett after tomorrow, though I will refrain from commenting on his insane reasoning for why he thinks Abate will win.

I truly hope all of the Camillions who have said that they are in this fight against Garrett all the way will hold true to their committments after Paul wins this one.

Make sure you all remember to vote tommorrow!!!!!

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by: ridethedonkey @ Tue Jun 06, 2006 at 04:39:46 AM UTC

Re (0.00 / 0)

US Senate (R): Tom Kean Jr 76/ John Ginty 24

NJ-5 (D): Camille Abate 12/ Paul Aronsohn 88

NJ-5 (R): Michael Cino 2/ Scott Garrett 98

NJ-13 (D): Joe Vas 31/ Albio Sires 69

Bergen County Executive (R): Kathleen Donovan / Todd Calaguire ???

Harrison mayor (D): Raymond J. McDonough / Michael Hinchcliffe  ???

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by: Thurman Hart @ Tue Jun 06, 2006 at 10:26:36 AM UTC

Did you Vote yet today? (0.00 / 0)

US Senate (R): Kean Jr: 74 / Ginty: 24
NJ-5 (R): Cino: 4 / Garrett: 95
NJ-13 (D): Vas: 43 / Sires: 56
Bergen County Executive (R): Donovan: 58 / Caliguire: 41
Harrison Mayor: Umm... The new riverfront condos look nice?

NJ-5 (D): Thanks anyway, I've already got a t-shirt. But, I will third, fourth and fifth the motion for unity against Garrett in the general election.

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by: Jeff Gardner @ Tue Jun 06, 2006 at 13:57:33 PM UTC

You heard it here (4.00 / 1)

Junior - 76, Ginty - 23 - Though no one can hear Junior's acceptance speech over the lawnmowers cutting the grass at the Country Club.

Abate - 16, Aronsohn - 83 - I would have been closer, but Camille forgets to vote in the primary.

Cino 2, Ernie 96 - Sorry, I've run out of Cino-snark.

Vas - 32, Sires - 64 - Even though drug dealers and sex offenders come to the polls in record numbers, Vas still gets his keester handed to him.  Tomorrow Cateret Dan Reiman starts looking for the quickest route to Trenton on Mondays and Thursdays.

Donovan - 55, Calaguire - 43 - But hopefully the infighting and pissing matches continue throughout the summer.

Harrison Mayor - Who cares?  Harrison is just going to be consolidated with five other towns under Corzine's new property tax relief plans.

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by: PocketAces @ Tue Jun 06, 2006 at 14:07:12 PM UTC

The Important thing (0.00 / 0)

The Important thing is not the votes for any particular candidate in the Republican primary, but the voter turn out, which, for the Republicans, I expect to be low : You don't vote in the primary unless you plan on voting for the winner in November.

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by: Zames @ Tue Jun 06, 2006 at 14:07:16 PM UTC

I wear an XL (0.00 / 0)

US Senate:
Kean JR: 85%
Ginty: 13%

NJ-5:
Abate: 45%
Aronsohn: 52%

NJ-5:
Cino:10%
Garrett: 85%

Bergen Exec:
Donovan 40%
Calaguire: 52%

Harison:
McDonough:45%
Hinchcliff:55%

PS if anyone is going to the Menedex Party tonight say Hi. my wife and I are the ones withthe 3 year old twins and the 2 month old.
-njmitch

New Jersey....not as bad a it sounds.

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by: njmitch @ Tue Jun 06, 2006 at 14:43:47 PM UTC