Polls and the Adler-Runyan Race

by: Hopeful

Fri Aug 13, 2010 at 02:53:21 PM EDT

Likely Voters: Adler 40, Runyan 30, Don't Know 22, Won't Vote in this race 8
Registered Voters: Adler 35, Runyan 28, Don't Know 23, Won't Vote 13

There are other permutations of the question, but I think these are two most important. On the one hand, Adler is ahead. On the other, he is way under 50%, a sign of danger for an incumbent. In July, Adler released an internal poll where he lead by 17 (51-34)  Statistically, such poll announcements favor the releaser by an extra 6-7% or so.  (That is, Adler or Runyan would only release polls that happen to show unusually large/lucky leads, while our faithful Professor releases all results.)  17-7=10, so you might call the polls in good agreement with my proposed correction. Runyan has not released anything, so it now does seem likely Adler is ahead.

Other "generic" polls of New Jersey suggest that other Democratic incuments should be fine:

Monmouth: Own Congressman Favorable-Unfavorable: 54 - 28 (July)
Rutgers Democratic Districts: 41-22 (February)
Rutgers Statewide Generic: 33-31 (February)
FDU Statewide Generic: 47-39 (February)

Nationally the picture is more grim. In 2008, Democrats nationwide won the House vote by 8.9% They are currently trailing nationwide by 4.7% according to TPM's Poll Tracker calculation. Obama won NJ3 52-47, and Adler won 52-48. A twelve point swing would obviously bring Runyan to victory, and indeed Christie did win the district according to Redlawsk.  On the other hand, the latest NBC/WSJ poll shows a huge (55-30) lead for Democrats in the Northeast, so the devastating swings may be elsewhere.