| We're lucky to have poll releases today from Monmouth/Gannett (full PDF) and Rutgers Eagleton (full PDF) on New Jersey budget issues. Some of the Eagleton results were released earlier in the week. I'll mention the FDU poll which is about a month older, but still after the budget speech, and which is more favorable to Christie. In fairness, you should also keep in mind that Governor Corzine's budget proposals were not very popular either.
First, Governor Christies' approval rating is going down in all polls:
Monmouth: 41% approve, 43% disapprove (all adults; 42-44 registered voters)
Eagleton: 33% favorable, 37% unfavorable, (all adults)
FDU: 43% approve, 32% disapprove
On the Christie budget:
Monmouth: 22% satisfied, 32% "can live with it," 44% dissatisfied
Ealgeton: 13% "very pleased," 30% "pleased," "21% somewhat displeased," "29% very displeased"
FDU poll: 38% favorable, 39% unfavorable.
The Eagleton poll asked about what areas should be cut. If you suspect the public likes government spending and dislikes taxes you won't be surprised by their conclusions:
"Our recent poll showed that half of New Jerseyans are displeased with Governor Chris Christie's proposed budget," said David Redlawsk, director of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll and professor of political science at Rutgers University. "These new results give a good sense of residents' priorities in this difficult time. Laying off teachers or significantly cutting school aid are not seen as solutions. On the other hand, given today's economic challenges, people do not want to see their own costs increase either. The state is between a rock and a hard place, with clear support for a limited number of solutions, one of which is cuts to municipal government."
The public also opposes cuts to aid for the poor in the Eagleton poll, and state colleges scored nearly as well as public (K-12) schools. Here's the quote from the Monmouth release:
"The local aid reduction, particularly to schools, was always going to be the flashpoint for criticism of the plan, and the governor's clash with the NJEA only increased the heat. If part of his strategy was to win over public opinion, it hasn't been an overwhelming success," said [Monmouth pollster] Murray.
One contradiction between the two polls is that Monmouth asked about "cuts in aid to local school districts and towns" which the public denounced as unfair. Eagleton asked about schools, towns, and other possibilities separately, so it found school cuts unpopular but municipal cuts supported. On the other hand, Monmouth also picked up that more voters say they will vote against school budgets than vote for them which you might consider a little inconsistent. |
| Some numbers I found interesting:
On the fairness of the budget:
Monmouth: 27% "product of tough, thoughtful choices," "62% same old political dealings"
Monmouth: 26% "spread the pain fairly," 68% "unfairly"
On teachers and schools:
Eagleton: State Aid to School: "15% cut deeper," 26% "cut less," 57% "Not cut at all"
Monmouth: Who's responsible for layoffs: 44% "Christie," 18% "local school board," 28% "teacher's union"
Eagleton poll
Finds the most support for more easily firing municipal workers (57% yes, 38% no), while laying off school teachers (24-72), cutting police (23-74), or cutting aid to the poor (20-76) did poorly. Yes, aid to the poor scored higher than police.
Generic School budgets:
Monmouth: 28% yes, 37% no. The rest are undecided which probably means they don't vote.
You might not guess this from the posturing on cable TV, but Republicans favor cutting the police far more than Democrats do. Blacks and the poor are the groups least supportive of cutting back on cops, while many high income people would happy to pay for fewer of them. |
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