Redistrict New Jersey Yourself

here's my latest fantasy (0.00 / 0)

Move Paulsboro to NJ2 (it's right next door)  so I can have Burzichelli challenge LoBiondo. Well, maybe it's a fantasy, but he did express interest in Congress during the Andrews adventure in 2008.  

Frank LoBiondo Record and Jon Runyan Watch

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by: Hopeful @ Sat Mar 13, 2010 at 18:21:27 PM UTC

Keep in mind (0.00 / 0)

the lege doesn't have a completely free hand in drawing congressional districts.  With the lege being in the hands of Dems and a Republican governor, the most likely outcome is that as many incumbents as possible will be protected.

Even if this were not so, the legal precedence is not exactly clear.  The right to create a partisan benefit has long been upheld.  However, a NJ districting plan was struck down in Karcher v. Daggett because the gerrymandering could not be defended in any way other than electoral advantage and it created "bizarre shapes" for the districts and "abandoned the traditional practice of compactness."  It was decided on the principle of "one man, one vote" rather than minority voting rights.

As far as the Voting Rights Act goes, New Jersey is a bit more insulated than other areas might be.  We are not covered under Section 5, which would require preclearance by the justice department.  More to the point, the Republican case that protested unpacking minority voters was shot down in 2001.  

Still...it's a cool toy.

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by: Thurman Hart @ Sat Mar 13, 2010 at 22:09:52 PM UTC

oh I agree (0.00 / 0)

with all your points.  

Frank LoBiondo Record and Jon Runyan Watch

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by: Hopeful @ Sat Mar 13, 2010 at 22:20:24 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Are Andrews', Holt's, and Pascrell's districts minority-majority? (0.00 / 0)

If so, do they have to remain minority-majority?

When I redrew the congressional map (see the link in my comment below), I made both Holt's and Lance's districts more competitive by putting them in the same district, but I don't know if the rules would allow that if Holt is currently representing a minority-majority district.

I can't imagine that it would be as I believe that the old district, which was previously represented by Republicans before Holt upset the incumbent, Mike "Twinkle Twinkle Kenneth Starr" Pappas, won re-election by less than 1,000 votes against the incumbent prior to Pappas, Dick Zimmer, and then made a deal with the devil (aka Mike Ferguson) to make both of their districts much more incumbent-friendly, included Trenton.

My guess is that Andrews' district isn't either because outside of the city of Camden, the district is about as white bread as they come.

In addition to putting Holt and Lance in the same district, I put Garrett and Pascrell in the same district, creating yet another very competitive district for two Congressman who are used to representing extremely safe districts.

My hope would be that Pascrell retires, creating a wide-open Democratic primary that Jeff Gardner miraculously wins because of his strength amongst the progressives who live in the redder parts of the district combined with enough insurgent support in the bluer parts of the district that would also result in a progressive takeover of the Passaic, Sussex, and Warren County Democratic Organizations.

Call me a dreamer, but it could happen.

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by: Bertin Lefkovic @ Sun Mar 14, 2010 at 00:18:37 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm pretty sure they are not (0.00 / 0)

I do understand that the main shifts in the 2001 redistricting was to make the Democratic districts a little more Democratic and the Republican districts a little more Republican.

Frank LoBiondo Record and Jon Runyan Watch

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by: Hopeful @ Sun Mar 14, 2010 at 00:32:02 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

No (0.00 / 0)

I believe the only minority-majority districts in the state are represented by Payne and Sires (and I'm not sure about Sires).  But even those districts could be redrawn so that they are no longer minority-majority.  It would face a court challenge, to be sure, but it would be easier to do here in NJ than in Alabama, for example.

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by: Thurman Hart @ Sun Mar 14, 2010 at 20:56:19 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

my 2 cents on redistricting (4.00 / 1)

Thank you, Hopeful, for bringing this to Blue Jersey.  It is great to see a front pager take an interest in the congressional and legislative redistricting processes.

I recently wrote three diaries, including one about why the Blue Jersey community should ask NJDSC Chairman, John Wisniewski, to appoint Newark Councilman, Ron Rice Jr., to the legislative redistricting commission that inspired a grand total of two comments.

Hopefully, your blog entry will inspire far more discussion and maybe even some action from progressives than mine did, because this is an extremely important issue that will impact politics in the state for the next decade.

While there is probably not much that could be done to make LoBiondo's district more Democratic leaning as the map that I created had Paulsboro in District 1 as well, when you consider the fact that NJ is going to lose a Congressional seat going into the 2012 elections, it would not be difficult to include it in District 1.

What would probably impact this decision-making process is how interested Jeff Van Drew actually is in becoming a Congressman compared to how interested John Burzichelli is in becoming a Congressman and to what degree Steve Sweeney wants to cater to one or the other.  Another question is whether Burzichelli's Congressional ambitions were limited to running in a district as Democratic as the 1st or could be extended far enough to want to take on a district as challenging as the 2nd.

My guess would be that Steve Sweeney would like to have a Congressman from Gloucester County and would also prefer to keep Jeff Van Drew in the State Senate where he is able to keep an otherwise Republican State Senate seat Democratic, which is something that neither Nelson Albano nor Matt Milam could necessarily do.  Van Drew is definitely Steve Sweeney's kind of South Jersey Democratic State Senator and is clearly a loyal vote from Sweeney's perspective.

If I were you, Hopeful, I would start doing some organizing in your part of the state around this concept.  You could even go so far as to call it Draft John Burzichelli for Congress.

I don't know if any Democratic challengers for LoBiondo have stepped forward to date, but if no sacrificial lamb has stepped up at the moment, an argument could be made for Burzichelli laying the groundwork for a 2012 run by being an out-of-district challenger in 2010 with the understanding that it would not be hard to include his hometown of Paulsboro in the new 2nd district if he pulled off a miracle and actually won, especially when you consider how many more people the new districts will encompass in 2012.

Even if he lost to LoBiondo by a margin that was less than past challengers, he could make a strong argument for a 2012 rematch, especially if the inclusion of towns from his district made the district somewhat more Democratic.  And when you consider the fact that in 2002, the Democratic challenger for Mike Ferguson in the 7th District lived in Montclair, a very strong argument could be made for Burzichelli's candidacy.

No matter what, I think that your thinking is absolutely on the right track and far less of a fantasy than you give it credit.  GO FOR IT!!!!!

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by: Bertin Lefkovic @ Sat Mar 13, 2010 at 23:54:13 PM UTC

you are very kind (0.00 / 0)

Honestly it just occurred to me. Maybe I will work on it.

Frank LoBiondo Record and Jon Runyan Watch

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by: Hopeful @ Sun Mar 14, 2010 at 00:32:42 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

best of luck to you if you do (4.00 / 1)

You are probably the first person here who has ever called me kind despite my best efforts to be constructive even when critical.  It is good to know that someone here appreciates my ideas.

While I don't live anywhere near your district, please feel free to let me know if there is anything that I can do to help you if you decide to pursue something along these lines.

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by: Bertin Lefkovic @ Sun Mar 14, 2010 at 00:44:06 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Awww (0.00 / 0)

Don't go all nice on us.

For a while I was thinking about writing something about how very smart you are and how well you have written about some complex issues (even if they put Mr. 3.00 to sleep) but how combatively they have often been conveyed.

The rather benign commentary on the Garrett diary made me think abou Creed.  He delighted in his efforts to rip my lungs out.  And I wound up apologizing for a perceived slight against his wife (whom I'm sure is a lovely lady) even tho my remarks were not meant that way.

I thought about quiting this blog at that time.  But I would have been a poorer political soul if I had not read your writings.

Don't get all excited - almost everyone who writes here is pretty damn good.

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by: SmartyJones @ Sun Mar 14, 2010 at 01:48:56 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

no doubt (0.00 / 0)

With the possible exception of Creed, I don't think that there is a bad person amongst us, and even he isn't bad as much as he is establishmentarian.

Unfortunately, I am just verbose by nature and assume that the massive collection of intellects that congregate here can handle it, but with regards to seeming combative, I guess that I just get frustrated with the ratio of talk to action here.

Whether I should get excited or not, I do appreciate your kind words and it is good to know that I have some kindred spirits here.

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by: Bertin Lefkovic @ Sun Mar 14, 2010 at 02:53:58 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Has anybody ever looked at Holt's, Lance's, and Pallone's districts on a map? (0.00 / 0)

If you use the app that Hopeful provides and click on All Old CDs, you will see the existing congressional map, which is more convoluted than anything I could have ever imagined.

As great as Pallone and Holt are, I think that it is awful that they played a role in a gerrymandering scheme as blatant and offensive as this one.

Let's hope that they make up for it by playing a role in the construction of a much more sensible and competitive congressional map for the decade to come.

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by: Bertin Lefkovic @ Sun Mar 14, 2010 at 00:27:59 AM UTC