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BCDO's strategy fail - not just lose but lose badly

by: Adam L aka clammyc

Wed Mar 03, 2010 at 02:30:00 PM EST



Say what you want about former BCDO Chairman Joe Ferriero, but he knew how to rack up Democratic wins in Bergen County.  As for his successor, Michael Kasparian, 2009 didn't look too good but let's not give him all of the blame for the loss of two freeholder seats and a near draw between Christie and Corzine in the backyard of the very popular Democratic Lieutenant Governor candidate.  After all, he did have to come in on the heels of a cloud of corruption and it didn't go away (probably still hasn't).  That being said, Kasparian did say that he was not going to be the same type of leader as Ferriero and would have more transparency in the BCDO.  I assume he also had a goal of restoring the tarnished image of the BCDO.

Which makes the information I have been hearing that much more puzzling as well as maddening.  

Now, knowing that Scott Garrett is by far one of the most out of step Congressmen, tucked safely in a district that is hand drawn for a Republican to hold on the Congressional level and the desire for the Bergen Democrats to lay as low as possible, I can understand a level of concern, given the county and statewide election results last November.  But I have heard from at least four different people in four different parts of the county who have spoken to three very well known and high profile people high up in the BCDO - all of whom have indicated the chosen strategy of the BCDO (and I am paraphrasing):

We think it would be best to not run a challenger to Scott Garrett in the hopes that Republican voter turnout will be depressed and our local candidates will have a better chance of winning

Where to even begin here?  How about the following reasons why this is quite possibly the absolute dumbest and worst political strategy I have seen in a good long time:

  • Republicans are more motivated this year than in the past 6 years.  To think that they won't be coming out stronger and hope they will forget there is an election is fantasyspeak;
  • Having no Congressional candidate will not "free up motivated volunteers" to help with, for example, Freeholder, County Executive, County Sherriff or other lower tier races - local races where quite frankly, most people don't know or care enough to get involved;
  • Voter turnout in an off year (i.e., non-Presidential) is low as is - without giving the base a real reason to vote - and voting just for downticket races is hardly reason enough to get the full base out to vote - will only depress Democratic turnout further;
  • Sending a signal that you don't even want to field a top of the ticket candidate is a message of fear - a losing message.  This will likely (1) depress the base vote further, (2) depress the motivated activists who would otherwise vote for an entire ticket, tell their friends and neighbors to do the same, volunteer and talk up the race and (3) create a backlash and resentment among those who know the damage that Scott Garrett does to the people of this district; and
  • Give the impression that an attempt to save their own personal political lives is more important than helping those constituents who they hope will elect (or re-elect) them to serve.  

What message does it send to me - a motivated activist who has spent the better part of my four years living in New Jersey working to oust Garrett?  That I should not only suck it up and let Garrett walk to a win - even if he ends up embroiled in his own horrific scandal - but I should also be a sport and team player and have all of my friends and neighbors come out and vote for downticket candidates because why?

And I know that there are hundreds of people like me - people who can get hundreds more to vote for a whole slate of Democrats.  What the Bergen Democrats don't realize, just like the New Jersey Democrats who don't understand Garden State Equality's stance on not donating to the Democratic Party as a whole, is that our votes, our time and our money is earned.

By not running a Congressional candidate, the Bergen Democrats are doing none of the above - and they will only lose by a larger margin than if they had a Congressional candidate.

Adam L aka clammyc :: BCDO's strategy fail - not just lose but lose badly
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The seat of power (4.00 / 3)
for the Pay to Play system rests at the County level.  The BCDO would rather spend copiously on County races and Municipal ones than on Congressional.  Why?  Because the patronage machine only works if you can give County jobs to loyal flunkies and Municipal and County Contracts to wealthy donors.

Which is why Congressmen grovel at the feet of the County Chairman instead of the other way 'round.  The year Paul Aronsohn got no help from Joe Ferriero's BCDO to fight Garrett, 3 million was spent on the County Executive race.  
The more the BCDO circles the wagons to protect the incumbents, the less money will be spent on Congressional races.  

One Vote. Yours. It really does matter.


and let's see how far that gets them (4.00 / 1)
with the current climate and knowledge that they would rather punt to save themselves.

Scott Garrett - on the wrong side of, well, everything.

[ Parent ]
Let's be fair (0.00 / 0)
Beating Scott Garrett is next to impossible with the way the district is currently gerrymandered (Exhibit A for why progressives should be more engaged in the redistricting process).

Just because the BCDO doesn't recruit or endorse a candidate doesn't mean that someone cannot challenge Garrett.  I have said on a number of occasions, Carol, that as impossible as it might be to beat Garrett, you would be as good a candidate, if not better (if not the best) as anyone in the district.

Anyone who wants to take on Garrett can file the necessary petitions in each of the counties in the district with the appropriate number of signatures and run.  The fact that the BCDO is not endorsing anybody means that if there is more than one candidate, all of them will be running off of the line, creating an open primary, which is probably how Congressional and Senatorial primary elections should be run.

As far as the lack of financial support is concerned, the lack of investment by county and municipal Democratic organizations, especially in blue counties like Bergen is a statewide problem not a Bergen problem for many of the reasons that Carol alludes to.

Congressional, Senatorial, and even Presidential elections are sideshows as far as the Democratic establishment in New Jersey is concerned and usually matter far more to activists and average voters than party leaders, whose primary focus is on raising money and returning favors to large donors.

It is one of the biggest problems with NJ politics and it is one that needs to be addressed by all progressives, not just those in the 5th CD.


[ Parent ]
that isn't all that is going on though (0.00 / 0)
having the BCDO not put up their own candidate and having one from Sussex or Warren is one thing (like Sarlo said).

But saying that they would prefer NOBODY to run is very different.

And as for the "next to impossible", you run people in every district because you never know if a Duke Cunningham scandal or something else happens.  And you never concede an entire race without even trying.

To do it with the illusion that it will save lower tier races is even worse.

Scott Garrett - on the wrong side of, well, everything.


[ Parent ]
I agree - we should never leave a seat empty. (4.00 / 1)


One Vote. Yours. It really does matter.

[ Parent ]
you're right (4.00 / 1)
If their logic had any validity, they would also encourage Steve Rothman to not run for re-election.

You're also right that an uncontested Congressional race is more likely to reduce Democratic turnout in Garrett's part of the county than Republican turnout.

What the BCDO fails to understand is that the Ferriero years have put a big bull's eye on the county-level offices and both Republican and unaffiliated voters will be coming out in droves to try to put an end to what is perceived, thanks to him and his ilk, as Democratic corruption in Bergen County.


[ Parent ]
yeah, I agree---it is sad (0.00 / 0)
and pathetic that the same people don't see the writing on the wall from the past couple of years and events crashing in on themselves.

And even still, it is the same attitude towards Congressional candidates and County parties from the rest of the District, not to mention the way that the Freeholder (s)election process is looking like it may turn out.

I don't know if it is more arrogance or ignorance, but it certainly looks like a good dose of both!

Scott Garrett - on the wrong side of, well, everything.


[ Parent ]
Thanks for the vote of confidence. (0.00 / 0)
Unfortunately, like many Americans struggling under healthcare bills, a run for Congress is really out of the question for me.  Perhaps someday when I can afford to, I would run for some local office again. But right now, I'd like to support someone willing to go up against Garrett.  

One Vote. Yours. It really does matter.

[ Parent ]
yes lets be fair (4.00 / 1)
it seems to me that in 2008 everyone believed that he was vulnerable...nothing about Scott Garret has changed he is just as extreme as ever.

I don't disagree that this year (a year likely to be very republican) he would be very hard to unseat.  But the BCDO owes all the Democrats who donate to them to put up a candidate...and if they don't it would be a shame if no one stands up to run.

This may not be the year to beat him...but he is beatable with the right candidate and the right (professional) campaign strategy.

FYI....the BCDO will never donate to a congressional campaign because of the pay to play system...any democrat could have won in 08' if given 1.5 million from the BCDO(rather than that money going to some other county position)...They don't want to have to deal with someone in a higher position of power; and that is a fact


[ Parent ]
It Would Be Insanely Stupid To Give Garrett An Uncontested Win (4.00 / 1)
I agree with all the reasons given here for running someone.  

If the BCDO fails to nominate a serious progressive candidate, then one should be drafted.    I've already proposed that Adam take on the role but he's declined the opportunity.  ;-)

My sense is that people are disgusted with both the Neanderthal Scott Garrett approach and the milquetoast spineless Democratic non-approach and that a truly energetic, committed grass roots progressive candidacy could go politically viral.    It would require some one smart with charisma, speaking skills, passion and a creative team able to innovate and to make the candidacy a movement.

Find the right person and put together the right team.....and the money and the votes will come.  Mr Preuss is correct Garrett is beatable.   It's not a likely or easy scenario but I believe it is quite possible.

Sadly the cynicism from both Carol and Adam re the BCDO seems to be fully valid....though I am holding out hope for a surprise tomorrow night.

I'll say this, a passive election strategy designed to try to suppress the opposition vote will fail miserably.   The Ferriero machine is broken and if they try to rebuild it they will keep on losing.  

This mirrors the national situation is some respects......when you're down points and the momentum is going against you is not the time to mount a "prevent defense".    It would be funny if the stakes weren't so high.


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