Rutgers-Eagleton Poll on the two Tea Parties

by: Hopeful

Wed Mar 03, 2010 at 09:30:00 AM EST

"We find that Republicans who favor the TEA Party movement are driven, at least in part, by an antipathy towards Obama which is simply less prevalent among Republicans who are not favorable toward the TEA Party,

In other words, the Tea Party's base is right-wingers who think Obama is a socialist, un-American, blah, blah, blah. The pollster didn't ask about Obama being a Muslim.

The more important conclusion is that there are really two groups involved:

GOP TEA Party movement supporters are clustered in the $50,000 to $100,000 income range and are somewhat older than the average New Jersey voter. They are also significantly more likely to be male, white, and to consider themselves born-again Christians. Democrats and independents favoring the TEA Party are more likely to have incomes under $50,000, are much younger, and less likely to be white males.

"There appear to be two demographic bases for the TEA Party movement," said Redlawsk. "One is a higher income, older, male, Republican, anti-Obama group. The other is a lower income, younger group who are not Republicans and who like Obama. These voters are attracted to the TEA Party because of worries about their own financial situation and feelings that something is wrong in America. With more than a quarter of New Jersey voters favorable towards the TEA Party, it is possible that the movement could have real impact on politics. The question is whether it can provide what both groups want at the same time. If the focus is on impacting the Republican Party, it may lose the 30 percent who are not Republicans. But to keep that group happy may require a focus that is much broader than Republican Party politics and an intense dislike of the Obama administration."

The first group won't possibly vote for Democrats and worrying about them is a waste of time, although I suppose the fact that 65% of Republican Tea Party supporters want government to do more for "middle class people" might mean I am wrong. The second group, though. can be reached and indeed many of them may vote for Obama in 2012. Communicating with them this year is important for Democrats. The President's otherwise admirable non-partisan, "there's not a liberal America and a conservative America" approach has let the conservatives and indeed the entire "Establishment" off the hook for the disaster they've led America into. Perhaps I should say partly off the hook. Republicans in Congress have only 25% favorable rating with 48% unfavorable. Democrats in Congress are at 35-42 and President Obama 56-31.