| I've been snowed in and I'm reduced to writing about Sarah Palin's chances in the 2012 Republican primary here in New Jersey. (I trust the primaries won't be moved up to 2011.) Why? Well, Nate Silver of 538.com has built a model of Palin's support in the 2012 primaries. So, you and I might say, "Sarah Palin has no chance here and Chris Christie's running away from her proves it," but statistical analysis can reveal surprising, non-intuitive results.
Not this time. After considering New Jersey's demographics (looking for rural voters, no college voters, conservatives, white evangelicals, etc.) and her fund-raising in different states, Silver reveals that in his system, New Jersey has a "Sarah Palin Primary Index" of -8.2. Only Massachusetts is less favorable to her. I haven't followed the RNC closely enough to know if New Jersey will remain a "winner take all" state, but even if it doesn't, it seems we won't see much of her. |
